Blizzwalker

Way up in the NW forum... Us backwoods half-wits like a good Bomb-Typhoon. Keeps the climate scientists away. Hope we all have a good storm !

One Icon run, but even for NW and up into Catskills, where is the 1.5 inches Qpf ? 5-7 inches snow wouldn't account for that. Forecast has all snow in Catskills,so did all this predicted qpf decline ? Or is it coming after this map's duration ?

NOAA had Middletown NY at 4-8, then yesterday afternoon went up to 5-9. We got 3-4. This brings up questions about what variables contributed to a bust for them- certainly infrequent for NOAA to be off by such a margin. The track seemed ok- and we didn't seem to get much sleet. Was it qpf ? I don't know the physics of snow growth, but maybe some subtle variables went in the 'wrong" direction.

Not quite the 5-9 that NOAA predicted for NW Orange. There must have been some variables affecting snow growth that were hard to predict. Storm track seemed ok. I watched that radar deteriorate after about 930 pm.

Started just NW of Middletown -- pretty abruptly. Small flakes with a few micro granules. But almost all snow. Radar looks good.

Fwiw, 2 reports of snow further E in Pa on mPing /Radarscope right now., on the E edge of the radar returns in Pa.

Thumbs up to some activity on the NW thread...

Here just NW of Middletown -- Modest band still giving some accum. Around 7 inches-- so much for the Globals ( Euro, Ukie) that kept me under 3 inches. Anyways- A cold snow puts the WIN in winter !!

Surprising how the recent 12Z GFS op has a max ( Kuchera) of 12 inches right over my part of Orange co (Middletown) -- yet same area had an odd snowhole minimum of 2 inches right in same spot in recent (9 am) NWS expected snow totals graphic. It's not that 12 inches on op run is way too high--- it's that same spot was highest predicted amount for large NW area (GFS), and lowest for same large area. It kind of paints the GFS in an outlier light.

Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ? U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions.

Although the fine points elude me, I know that NW trends don't just happen. Just offered some misguided sarcasm. -- I see it's a strategy used by some of us when disappointment looms...

NW trend. It's unavoidable. It's right where I want to be 10 days out.

I observed 5 flakes in under a minute. Perhaps this points to even higher rates this Monday.....

The La Nina--"3 inches or more in December" rule for NYC. In above posts, it's mentioned that this rule has generally yielded correct predictions for remainder of winter snowfall in NYC. It's been mostly correct since 95-96. So the LaNina winters over last 29 years. It's been some time since I took statistics, but a sample size of 14 seems quite small to use in claiming a strong correlation between La Nina December snow and winter total. Sure, there is this small sample appearing to offer predictive power, but does it stand up if a bigger sample is used ? I know weather records only go back so far, but does anyone have data about this relationship for last 50 years ? 100 years ? My point is unless a bigger sample is used, maybe we should be cautious in how much we rely on this rule.

I live here !