Blizzwalker

Surprising how the recent 12Z GFS op has a max ( Kuchera) of 12 inches right over my part of Orange co (Middletown) -- yet same area had an odd snowhole minimum of 2 inches right in same spot in recent (9 am) NWS expected snow totals graphic. It's not that 12 inches on op run is way too high--- it's that same spot was highest predicted amount for large NW area (GFS), and lowest for same large area. It kind of paints the GFS in an outlier light.

Are there AI models that get trained on multiple weather models to look for patterns, such as in the above examples ? U would think that looking at the systematic bias of Euro, GFS, CMC, etc, in relation to each other, u could get better predictions.

Although the fine points elude me, I know that NW trends don't just happen. Just offered some misguided sarcasm. -- I see it's a strategy used by some of us when disappointment looms...

NW trend. It's unavoidable. It's right where I want to be 10 days out.

I observed 5 flakes in under a minute. Perhaps this points to even higher rates this Monday.....

The La Nina--"3 inches or more in December" rule for NYC. In above posts, it's mentioned that this rule has generally yielded correct predictions for remainder of winter snowfall in NYC. It's been mostly correct since 95-96. So the LaNina winters over last 29 years. It's been some time since I took statistics, but a sample size of 14 seems quite small to use in claiming a strong correlation between La Nina December snow and winter total. Sure, there is this small sample appearing to offer predictive power, but does it stand up if a bigger sample is used ? I know weather records only go back so far, but does anyone have data about this relationship for last 50 years ? 100 years ? My point is unless a bigger sample is used, maybe we should be cautious in how much we rely on this rule.

I live here !

Just ending here W of Middletown. It's like islands of winter within a broader Fall pattern. Looks like that's the norm we're heading for. Occasional big storms with long stretches of bare ground. I was never a "snowpack" guy because I always had one. Now, I've become one too late.

Watched the SE trend across ALL models. Saw the HRRR about 1115 last nite. Middletown/NW Orange Co was deader than dead. Up at 8--What a surprise !

My snow light west of Middletown is an exquisitely precise meteorological instrument. Assessment: lot a snow in short time.

Hope u get up to the mountains. Meanwhile, I hope we all get some winter down here !

Taken from summit of Algonquin Peak.

Hoping to fan the flames of enthusiasm for 6 inches NW this Saturday... Here is snow in NY- Took this of my friend looking at Mt Marcy right before New Years Eve.

Lock it in

Probably bust -- snow mixing in last half hour just NW Middletown at 750 ft. Temp has dropped from 38 to 34 in 3 1/2 hours (Wunderground station nearby). Snow appearing a bit earlier than the 11 pm forecast by nws. We may still get 6 inches up here, which wouldn't be a bust for noaa's recent call.