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mgerb

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About mgerb

  • Birthday 04/17/1981

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    Somerset, NJ

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  1. mgerb
    One thing I'll mention about your last point is this week's DM map was valid through 12Z 12/10, before the ~2" fell in northern NJ, thus wasn't accounted for in the decision to leave things status-quo in the 12/12 map. I'd expect next week's map should show some improvement up north (esp northwest of I 287 in NJ); less sure about areas further south, where precip over the last week has been around or slightly above normal, but not enough to support much improvement. At least it appears that we'll continue seeing regular precip events to keep things from degrading further, but the hope obviously is to have some above-normal months this winter/spring to help prepare for the warmth/demand of the spring and summer.
  2. mgerb
    Would add the caveat that this really applies for the area north of I-78. Central and especially southern NJ have seen less, and drought severity is higher there anyway, so need to see more to start to claw out. Yeah, largely outside "NYC metro", but know we have plenty of posters south of I-78.
  3. mgerb
    Last 2 days here: https://maps.cocorahs.org/?maptype=precip&units=us&base=std&cp=BluYlwRed&datetype=custom&displayna=0&from=2024-12-11&to=2024-12-12&dc=0.9&key=dynamic&overlays=state,county&bbox=-75.57083129882814,40.295239085867614,-73.26370239257814,41.193123075718695
  4. mgerb
    Reverse that. Drought Watch to a Drought Warning.
  5. mgerb
    Enhanced upgrade:
  6. mgerb
    Maybe so, but still 100+ hrs out, so too early for "definitely." As for tonight, HRRR (14Z below) keeps keying in on this area. FWIW (perhaps not much), it seems to have a good handle on the southern extent of the convection in NW PA, whereas some other mesos are further north.
  7. mgerb
    Another 0.78" in the bucket today. 1.86" over the past 3 days. Nothing excessive, but a nice soaking to break the dry spell.
  8. mgerb
    Not much thunder here, but was just far east enough to take advantage of the late intensification. 0.45". Seems like the storms caught up with the outflow (which had surged far ahead earlier), and maybe some extra kick from the old sea breeze boundary (which at least some of the mesos seemed to suggest once the storms got around the Turnpike and east).
  9. mgerb
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1795.html
  10. mgerb
    Looking good for storms with further development out west, and starting to see some activity fire along the sea-breeze.
  11. mgerb
    There has definitely been some new development on the southern flank around Lancaster over the past 30-60 mins.
  12. mgerb
    My experience remains that whenever I leave home, I miss the best storms. Really never fails. Missed Ida, missed a severe thunderstorm last year and arrived home to a huge part of a tree in my driveway (never happened before since I've lived here), and so many others (which is amazing, since I don't travel much and mostly work from home!).
  13. mgerb
    Yup. This was what it became. Nice tiny heavy shower.
  14. mgerb
    Towering cu base right outside my window. Let's see if anything comes of it. But think this portends a relatively active afternoon.
  15. mgerb
    Lots of towering cu and some rapid th understorm development now along the old outflow boundary.
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