Yeoman

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

You love the AI

You all are fools. AI is what weather modeling has been using since day one, which are algorithms, data, and computing power to perform forecasting that is beyond the capability of human intelligence.

The sooner everyone realizes weather is unpredictable in all but the most stable conditions, the sooner you won't bother wasting your time with these fantasy model runs. Look up the butterfly effect, chaos theory, etc.. and then find a new hobby. Embrace the unexpected..

21 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Fellas… I know we dick around in here way more than we probably should, but let’s keep the squabbling to a minimum.

LOL

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok a few points rattling through my brain

1) there are actually things I like better about this Euro run.  It focuses on the arctic boundary wave associated with the TPV more (as I suspected and hoped guidance would come around to) and because of that it develops the system and starts to mature sooner.  It moves a little quicker which cuts down snow totals from HECS to MECS levels.  But its a much safer way to go, this progression would have a lot less bust potential than relying on the late bomb phase capture tuck scenario of the 12z euro where everything gets under us and we need it to come straight north really to get us...a SW to NE trajectory is much safer if we want to guard against a really bad GFS like outcome which honestly is more important to me than shooting for the moon here.  Yea I would LOVE 20" but if it comes with a big risk of 2-4" instead...I'd rather take a safe 10-15" snowstorm.  

2) The 12z op euro was one of the snowiest solutions across the EPS.  There was one absolutely bonkers run that was a 2016 1996 type redux with 30"+ across the whole area...then there were 4 members that were similar...but the op was an extreme outlier high end solution.  It was probably just random chance that it spit out one of the bigger permutations.  A 8-15" type snow was the more common result across members.  And then there were some "blah" minority results also...BTW among those there were more misses due to over amplified cutters than OTS GFS solutions, but there were a few of those too.  All that to say, the 20" HECS solution was never the most likely outcome even within the euro suite.  

3) anyone who throws a fit if we end up with a 10-15" snowstorm should be taken out back the woodshed and *&^&%*$&&*%&%.  Frankly that goes for a 8-12" storm also... if we end up with some 4" weak sauce ordinary storm sure, if MD gets fringed again sure...if this euro ends up the final result we should be acting like those people in philly after the eagles won the super bowl.  We haven't had a widespread storm like that in years.  We don't live in Vermont.  A 10" snowstorm is a freaking huge win. 

4) The DC-Baltimore area has had 10 HECS storms since 1950 total...and worse only 1 of them came in a la nina winter.  1.  1 more than none.  in 75 years.  So get that out of your heads.  If we do get a HECS then act like you just won the weather lottery because you did.  Frankly we've only even had 8 MECS (this is subjective but by my count) storms in the last 75 years in a la nina.  But that's way better odds than 1.  8x the odds lol.  So I think MECS is probably the reasonable high end expectations here and that should be totally fine.  That's still a super rare outcome!  When I said I think this happens and we have a good chance at a big snowstorm before the winter is over...I wasn't ever thinking HECS.  I was picturing a 8-12" type storm.  

 

Retirement must be treating you well.. 

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Something like that  - there are more hours then I like where the surface temps are over 32 in DC. Might need to go to the other side of the river for this one? @stormtracker not poo-pooing our event but I kinda assume if it snows 0.3"/hr in DC at 34 during the daytime it never snowed in the first place?

Those model predicted temps are always too high in these types of events..

59 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site.

But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site.

The big ones usually lock in 14 days out

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

So when you measured at your girlfriends house you had 30”, and when you measured at home you had 12”. Why do you think that is?. 

The acid was wearing off?

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Just for fun…also, HM mentioned on our discord that the setup could be favorable for an ice/mix front end if things go well






.

I'd feel better if it was only 9 days out

13 hours ago, WVclimo said:

remote learning days.

3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

 

DCA is never going to reflect exactly what your climate is because you live outside the beltway in the suburbs.

 

It's not about that.. its about some strange dick measuring contest when comparing temp obs to other cities and their official measuring stations.

3 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

Yesterday schools should have been closed.  And yeah, these kids are used to coming to school in hoodies and crocs or sneakers. While most of our county has money, there are quite a large number of families that don't and also can't drive their kids to school when it's too cold to walk a mile. I volunteer with refugees and have been trying to get many of them warm clothes and coats, but many don't have any.  

So that .1% of the student body that can't find a coat in one of the richest areas in the world can stay home so the others can go to school and attempt to learn how to read before they turn 13

 Lol... 

1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said:

This global warming shit is getting out of control man. 

Try some imodium while watching timelapse: 

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

18z AI has the 1/30-31 threat as rain now. But that can change in 6 hours so nbd.

Should turn to snow by 1/32

8 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

Hey experts. So in the end, which model did better and from what time frame? Just curious if anyone keeps track of the batting averages. I’m on the baseball analogies since the Ravens layed yet another egg in the playoffs. Enjoyed following the banter. Onto the next one.

MikeG

RGEM

.5 in in NW DC.. writing was on the wall mid morn with the temps and dryslot.. last year was better assuming nothing more this month

How does one get inside the Bektwat?

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

I got a very special message for you.

Just keep your control freak shit up. . Your what does the 360 hour gfs say in 8 paragraphs is not the only conversation in  here and far far from the best

 

Teninch Johnson FTMFW!

21 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Don’t get me wrong it looks bad—historically bad—but it’s like canceling winter on December 31, which people do every year as we know lol. 

Seems to work out well

Have we hit tayshaun yet?

14 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I'll beleive it rains here when it actually happens.  

Don't forget that you actually have to leave your mom's basement to see it rain

16 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

I’ve almost forgotten spring is a severe season around here. Most of the impressive stuff I’ve seen in recent years has been during the summer. I’m excited to go west and see some real storms like I’ve never seen before.

I'd never consider spring as "severe season" around here. In my 45 years of living in the DC area, June/July has by far had the most severe events. Historically, DC typically has the most thunderstorm days in July with 7, followed by June with 6, and May and August with 5.

49 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Couldn't manage more than 3 drops of drizzle today.

That's tough.. nothing more exciting than steady drizzle.

Hopefully you're still able to feed your family

Pretty impressive line and moving quick..

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

And meanwhile in Stephens City....not a drop.

No one cares 

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think this one is changing. In fact, the signal is getting better as we get closer. Kind of the opposite of February

ahh you're right.. 14 days out is the sweet spot for model accuracy

59 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

WHERE.WAS.THAT.RIDGE.ALL.WINTER?!

10-15 days out at least 12 times a week.. so no different from the fantasy map he posted, which of course will change completely within 24 hours.

Beyond two or three days, even the world's best forecasts are still speculative, and beyond a week, they are worthless. Such is the paradox that is chaos.

If you have control issues, weather might not be the best hobby for you.