ShawnEastTN

Absolutely!!! One thing that is repeated probably over 95% of the time the extent of Northern precip shield is nearly always under done.

Yeah I think everyone on this forum knows that feeling, seems we go multiple years before finally getting a good storm and just about every year things will look good on models once or twice only to get rain or cold dry air. It sucks, but on the other hand when we do finally get a good one it's that much sweeter.

Interesting, wonder if tomorrow we begin seeing the operational start trending more in line. It is definitely encouraging to see so much modeling coalescing towards more qpf in general. If we can get the operational of both GFS and Euro to go in that direction would be great. In all reality we still have plenty of time for that to happen. Would like to see everything in pretty close agreement by 36 hours of zero hour at least.

One difference 0z GFS compared to 18z, 18z brought mixed precip all the way into southern KY, 0z mixed precip isn't depicted any further north than Cumberland county.

Yeah perfect conditions for that. Shallow residual moisture from the storm that just passed being rung out. I've had the tiniest flurries since dark but might be transitioning to that freezing mist you are describing.

Yeah I'm really amazed at some of the things I hear come out of some local TV mets mouths. I'm far from a meteorologist but some things I've heard over the years really makes me wonder about their experience. WVLT last year did everything in their power to downplay the event last January because they missed the forecast greatly. Last January was one of the most impactful winter storms we've had in many years, affecting area roads for over a week in some areas yet they still worked to downplay it's impacts. Was so bizarre.

I'm not overly concerned with p-type, likely will start as snow for everyone p-type may transition to sleet for a time in the East but from my experience at least from Athens North if it starts as snow and transitions, it usually transitions to sleet and doesn't usually last too very long before going back over to snow. Though any time with sleet does suck because it cuts snow totals a bit. Further south near Georgia border might be a bit longer duration of mixing but even there I think going to still get at least modest snow totals. Sleet does have one advantage, great for sledding if you are looking for speed.

Check please!

Just now catching up. Wow!!!! Did not expect that, will take that all day long. Not concerned with ice depicted as that is usually over done if the storm is continuing to strengthen as it passes Tallahassee rounding the bend towards Hatteras, even southern valley gets decent snow albeit over a bit of ice on the front end. Only issue is further south like Chatty might get a longer duration of sleet before switching to snow but still get good snow.

Even with some of the model flip flopping I feel pretty optimistic that we are going to see a classic southern slider. Snow amounts I don't know, I do agree with tnweathernut that there is a good probability of weakening for Eastern areas but still think it may be a decent event. The fear of a cutter I think is less but not zero. Hoping any low in the lakes is very weak and very north like Lake Superior rather than Lake Erie which sort of makes sense it would be and our southern low is the dominant/stronger of the two keeping the stronger energy south with no or very little interaction or transfer south to North. Think tomorrow's modeling forward will dial in better with the Arctic air settling into place and today's Ohio valley storm mostly complete and moving out of the picture.

31 and very light freezing rain here. Light coating on trees and other objects.

Yeah I'm definitely guilty of focusing on the primary bigger impact event when there are more than one on the horizon. I can see how that can be confusing. I echo Matthew in that for most folks tomorrow's storm likely is not going to be very impactful in comparison with the 10th for most of the forum. Not to say tomorrows storm is a nothing storm I wouldn't be surprised with freezing rain that some areas get a nice punch before it switches to regular liquid.

First several hours would be big wet snow, last half of the storm though those ratios would begin increasing rapidly. Probably the last several hours would be the lion share of accumulations due to improving ratios.

At least it gives and doesn't want to go cutter or transfer energy like last run. Looks decent from qpf standpoint.

The 18z GFS as it is doesn't make a ton of sense to me, it's as though it transfers to an area of slightly lower pressure in the lower lakes region only to transfer back to the southeast right after. I get why just seems to be a weird solution with the two transfers. Also still think once storm 1 puts down it's snowpack we'll see things that make more sense. We've seen though the years that most times storms tend to parallel snowpack and not generally plow across it, not 100% but frequently.

I feel ya man!

MRX is really thinking through this situation. They've issued Winter Weather Advisories for most Great Valley counties that are near the eastern escarpment of the plateau and counties away from mountain downsloping. Good call!

Yep always a killer... So many years with mostly good patterns has had storms killed by a Great Lakes Low.

This feels pulled right out of an MRX discussion. Lol

I read this with the voice of the narrator/announcer of the old TV show "Soap". That ages me a bit, but not quite as old as that just remember it from syndication years later.

I believe until storm #1 lays it's snow pack & exits, and that resulting cold air is in place and sampled over the region to our north we are going to see a lot of wiggles in models. We usually are helped with snowpack to our immediate north but models don't seem to do well until that snowpack is in place and ground station data is ingested.

Yeah 12z GFS is brutal for most of the forum area, warmth everywhere, might as well be tropical rain event.

Yeah I noticed that in their graphic that it looks like the high spots are highlighted and it's the opposite in these situations. It's weird like the high terrain that 75 follows is red, but Elk Valley below is orange that doesn't make a lot of sense.

NWS Morristown social media: I'm always unsettled in these situations because I can recall so many times freezing rain began before sunrise and warm air advection forecast to erode lower levels where I live in the valley near the eastern escarpment of the plateau and it ends up never eroding the lower levels and is an ice storm start to finish.

WPC this afternoon issuance: