ShawnEastTN

Gotcha I was confused by that. Ok good!

Also I thought they bumped Tri-Cities area down to advisory mid day? Am I losing my mind, back to watch now.

Yeah their trimming suspiciously matches NAM earlier.

MRX trimming back along the mountains, not sure if they are concerned with downsloping or worrying about the precip dying back a bit as it goes East, or mixing cutting into totals.

This is what I suspect will be the final result for the majority of folks.

Much more common than not actually. Terrain and microclimates makes everything so much more interesting in this part of the world.

Last year was wild!!! For me it's impacts were very near the Blizzard of 93 because the duration of effects lingering. I still had roads out my way with packed snow and ice for about 2 weeks. Was crazy.

I could buy a brief period of sleet, I don't buy the freezing rain. Think mostly it's NAM being NAM with its amping. 3k is more believable to me but still overdone on mixing.

THIS!!! This trips people up frequently when we've been in the freezer before a storm moves in. People automatically think the beginning of a storm won't be bad there will be some melting and I'll have time. When it's been this cold before a storm moves it it trips up so many people that every flake sticks and the roads become very bad very quickly. This caused a lot of issues in last January's storm. I always call these storms that move in while we are in the deep freeze a "northern snowstorm" since no melting takes place even on roads. Very different from our typical southern snow because it doesn't take long for snowpack on the roads.

Agree completely!!! That track 9 times out of 10 pays dividends.

It might be the old south shift, before the shift back NW. Used to be able to count on those shifts in the last few days before a storm. Would sink south, then nudge back northward. Also Northern precip shield is always under modeled pretty much every time.

Wouldn't be winter weather chasing if there wasn't a couple head scratching runs in the last 72 hours before the storm. Everytime!!!

Yeah I'm not great at reading upper level charts. Something I need to learn more of, I can sniff out most pieces but some elude me.

That makes sense on why it's qpf would be lower.

It was a great event, for me it was basically an all day mostly light snow event. Literally early morning to late night just kept falling. Never really got heavy for me just really long duration.

I didn't realize Sweetwater got that much, I knew they had snow as I had to get on I-75 a few days later at sweetwater to go to Knoxville because I couldn't go to I-40 the way I normally would because it was just still too bad locally where I live. I have a friend in Madisonville that said they got virtually nothing so knew the line was between the 2 somewhere.

Right the cutoff was extreme. Sweetwater had a few inches but as you continued East toward Tellico it dropped completely off.

I'm glad you brought that up, I think the Euro really blowing it last year lead to some forecasters who lean heavily on the Euro to really bust on their forecasts probably even WVLT. I remember having a pit in my stomach all the way to the start of the event of "what if Euro is right." For that storm the Euro was basically alone, all other major models were much juicer in qpf. Wonder if we'll see similar this January storm and then the question of why such disparity. Euro had me at about 1 inch when I got 10 inches.

I think it's super possible Chattanooga could end up being the place to be. Near the southern end of swaths of snow like this can frequently be the heaviest axis of snow with greatest qpf/precip rates.

900 to 1000 foot seems too shallow to me to cause much issue. Think any time with that would be brief as dynamic cooling would also likely be at play cooling the entire column. Just my thoughts anyway, could be wrong.

Had to really suck for folks in Chattanooga. I know Northern Hamilton County in the valley still had folks trapped on back roads 6 days later. Same here in Meigs county. To be that close to the snow really stings. I think that line this time will be south of Chatty.

I'm still salty at their forecast for that storm as I know someone who believed them, then needed rescuing. Then they topped it off after the storm never acknowledging the extent of impacts.

All we need is WVLT saying 1-2" and very little travel issues like last January and it'll for sure happen!

MEG just issued Winter Storm Watch. "...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas, North Mississippi, Southeast Missouri, and West Tennessee. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday"

Real question I have is many models have most of MRX CWA in the 2-4 or 3-5 range, will MRX dust off the winter storm product, or Winter Weather Advisory? 1-3 is advisory criteria, but winter storm product for MRX is anything greater than 3 inches (for the Great valley) which looks probable for most if not all the CWA the potential is pretty good to break past 3". I'm sure we won't likely see a winter storm product issued before Wednesday afternoon if they do go that route.