
ShawnEastTN
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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now snow sleet mix virtually no rain and 34 degrees under that banding coming up the Eastern rim of the plateau but in the valley. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Wonder if MRX employees have poked their head outside... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Bwahaha... Sounds like mine too. Not quite sure what is going on with MRX today. It's like they aren't watching OBS and temps of their CWA at all. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I'm really surprised MRX hasn't changed my point forecast. Still says change over to occur at midnight... Lol. Already changing over in the great valley. I mean 12 hours off, is pretty big miss for MRX in my opinion. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looking further upstream in Northern AL nice batch of precip coming up! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Some sleet mix in Kingston also. Currently 36 in Kingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Now officially in the 30s in the Great Valley next to the plateau in Roane County. 39 currently. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Cold air finally begining to spill into my neck of the woods off the plateau temps in the low 40s now in Kingston area in Roane County. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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12/10-11/19 Potential Valley Wide Snow Event.
ShawnEastTN replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
What's hard for me is usually this is the window I trust the RGEM the most, right around the 48 hour window, I don't know I trust it with this storm. Either it has lost its way over the years in the 48 hour window or it's going to score a big coup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 486 replies
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX mentioned in their afternoon disco that scattered snow showers would continue across the northern half of the area through the evening. I guess a mix of upslope and just moisture wringing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Snowing in West Knox also. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Since my temp started falling the wind has also really picked up in a big way. Raining leaves occasionally from out of the woods around my house. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
My temp has finally began falling, fell from 60 to 54 over the last 30 minutes IMBY. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah I'm just across the river from Spring City and usually once I see Crossville temp start falling it doesn't take long, but waiting for Crossville to fall seems like it takes forever sometimes.. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Generally takes longer for it to come up the western escarpment than it does for it to spill into the Great Valley. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
Has began raining in Roane County, Kingston to be more specific. Find that interesting since MRX mentioned it would take time to saturate due to dry air. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
But what if it's 2 hours early... [emoji2962][emoji2956][emoji2962] Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think the models are anticipating the cold air to advect faster than we normally see and catching up to the heavier precip before it's done not just the super light stuff that would normally just be sprinkles behind the front. What MRX is counting on is that the cold air doesn't advect fast which is typical climo for these, also accounting for snow melting when it hits the ground as it begins as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
ShawnEastTN replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good catch, I generally try to temper enthusiasm for anafrontal snow, we all know the vast majority of these don't perform at all for us, but there are a couple things going for the forum that help a bit in my opinion, first the strength of the cold and that massive massive High behind the front, and second the time of the day being after dark we don't have the sun to work against us. Think among anafrontal potentials over the years this one has among the highest odds to over perform. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 574 replies
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- early winter
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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event
ShawnEastTN replied to BlunderStorm's topic in Tennessee Valley
I wonder if we'll see an uptick in amounts from MRX from the overnight shift. Used to be for the longest time the overnight shift was a bit more liberal in their forecasts than the day shifts. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk -
Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
ShawnEastTN replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Namtastic!!! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
ShawnEastTN replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
12z Euro has the Thursday storm. Looks interesting on the Euro. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
ShawnEastTN replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
18Z NAM at 84 has pretty robust precip in the Midwest for the system... But it's the NAM at 84... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
ShawnEastTN replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Little interested in that gulf system now being advertised Thursday... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 574 replies
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Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting
ShawnEastTN replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
OHX Facebook post.... Ha ha ha. Old Hickory is on a roll!![emoji12] Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk- 574 replies
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