ShawnEastTN

Nada here all virga Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Envious of your dewpoint... I'm 41/32. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'm going to remain optimistic, I think nearly all of the East Tennessee Valley, say 95% will see some accumulation, and I think most areas of the valley get above the inch mark and at least half get above 2". I'm not wishcasting, i personally think MRX became gun-shy with the last couple events that have made them swing too conservative in their forecast out of fear, not to mention the event not occurring during the work week there is less pressure on them if their forecast bust over rather than under. Not that I blame them because it they get a lot of flack. I think the potential of MRX having to up snow totals repeatedly through the next 16 hours is high especially after the event gets under way. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Chattanooga met Bill Race seems bullish for Chatt on FB, says he thinks this looks like a classic 1"-3" valley snow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

MRX will either jump on the Euro and we'll see advisories in the valley or they call it an outlier and double-down on virtually nothing on the ground from morristown down the valley. With temps way under what was originally expected I think that will have a huge impact on increased chances of valley accumulation. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

33 cold rain here after heavy sleet this afternoon. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I've had heavy sleet for about the last hour enough to coat the ground and my deck is dangerous... Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This is reaching the ground in the valley, have a nice little snow shower occurring at the moment imby. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ground turning white here as well this morning. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

MRX put out an update on FB. They are still saying one of the most difficult forecasts in several years, and seem to be expecting most change over to occur when the center passes to the east and wind shifts. https://www.facebook.com/198704190160961/posts/3872454576119219/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

MRX 10pm update on FB: 10 PM EST Update: Let's talk about uncertainty! Please understand that this is one of the more uncertain winter weather events that we've had to forecast for this area in several years. The temperature profile is borderline rain/snow and a degree either way can make a big impact on if snow or rain is falling at your location. With southeast low-level winds tonight, winds are blowing up the mountain on the North Carolina side with cooling temperatures and some snow. On our side, it's blowing down the mountain and sinking with some slight warming. Rising air = cooling air and sinking air = warming air. Late tonight, as the surface low moves eastward, these southeast winds will turn toward the northeast. This will limit that warming on the Tennessee side of the mountains. We will also have an upper low moving across the area. With rising air beneath the upper low, this will cool the air underneath it. Heavier precipitation and stronger rising air will cool the air more and make snow more likely across the valley. In parts of the valley, some areas will get very little snow and some areas may get up to 2 to 3 inches depending on how much rain mixes in at your location. Valley locations around and northeast of Knoxville have the highest probability of seeing an inch or more of snow. What snow falls and accumulates will likely occur quickly. Most snow accumulation will occur within about a 3 hour period on Friday morning. There is high confidence that the higher elevations of the mountains will see heavy snow. This will be a heavy, wet snow with snow ratios closer to 6:1 or 8:1. With the heaviest snow occurring during the morning commute, this may make travel difficult. If you have some questions about the weather forecast or the science behind it, let's chat: comment below! If you're seeing snow where you are, please let us know, too. https://www.facebook.com/198704190160961/posts/3872454576119219/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yes after midnight eastern side of the state further east the later the change over as per MRX time-frames with exception of high peaks of the mountains. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

37.1 light rain with occasional graupel/partly melted flakes. My temp dropped 2 degrees in the heavier mixed stuff earlier from 39 to 37, but my dewpoint climbed above freezing now at 33.8. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yep just now swinging through here i am getting mixed rain graupel. More graupel when the rate increases more rain when it's lighter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Lookout Mtn Mping snow Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Holding at 38 dewpoint 31. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Love hearing all these middle tennessee reports. Hearing reports from northern Alabama also, wouldn't be surprised if Huntsville doesn't issue WWA for northern AL before long. Edit: Oops meant this to be in the OBS thread. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yep looks like it's already over performing! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Looks to me this is already beginning to over perform. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Check out the photos on OHX that folks are posting from all over middle TN this evening. Some already picked up a quick inch who weren't supposed to get it. https://www.facebook.com/121353247940968/posts/3614401791969412/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

OHX seemed caught a bit off guard by all the reports of snow in middle tennessee. Many folks in middle Tennessee already have more snow on the ground than forecast. Check out Nashville national weather service FB post. Folks posting video and pictures from all over middle TN. https://www.facebook.com/121353247940968/posts/3614401791969412/

A friend of mine in Columbia TN reports half-dollar flakage. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Definitely dry air to overcome. No precip but heavy virga. I know it sounds strange but it just feels colder under virga in the winter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I am valley about 8 miles or so from the eastern escarpment of the plateau. I can see the plateau across Watt Bar where I live. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Right on the edge of higher returns so far it's virga, but it seems to might be having an impact on temp though that could also be the setting sun. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk