
ShawnEastTN
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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN
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I still have 2-ish and some areas close 3 inches in shaded areas. My house sits on a North facing ridge so almost the entire yard is still snowing covered, and the whole ridge North facing side, still has at least 2 inches of snow. Though today is the best melt day so far, feels like spring.
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Yeah didn't Houston and Galveston score then I think and we couldn't pay for snow, along with southern Louisiana. Edit - not sure how I duplicated your quote...
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The GFS even if wrong might be on to something either way with a potential miller of some sort nearing the end of the cold event or a cutter of doom. Still wrong in timing but could ultimately be right in pattern.
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It's not game over for your area yet.
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In this iteration of the GFS, it's more a Miller than an over running event with a low passing from New Orleans to Virginia and up the coast. My take on 18z GFS what it's advertising for Thursday Friday is a second storm towards the end of the cold blast, the over running event is a separate event that is suppressed to absolute oblivion on 18z GFS, but instead it winds a storm up near the end of the polar blast at the end of the week. So really 2 different events, would be great if we can get both of them actually. Imagine over running event at the start of the cold blast and miller at the end. Not impossible to get both, start and end of cold blasts are the sweet spots winter weather.
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What's impressive is downslope areas still get away with 8-10" instead of 10-12". No one gets blanked. It's impressive also because those winds would be strong but strongest as the low passes by to our East so at that time forward you also get an upslope component from the NNW that kicks in through the remainder of the storm blowing the snow around.
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18z GFS is way further north on its storm for late next week, but man Friday at 6z would be some of the heaviest rates snow I've probably seen since 1993.
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To be fair this feels like an environment and setup unlike anything since the time of waterbeds.
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For them and many it would rival the Blizzard of 93 in amounts. Though the Blizzard was much much more than just snow amounts the wind was absolutely insane. I think Birmingham got 18" not 100% sure what Huntsville got.
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I remember local Met in Chattanooga was watching it a week out staying consistent and at about the 5 day mark he being a new Met to Chattanooga originally from Chicago shocked Chattanooga by saying the word Blizzard on live TV. He said a Blizzard was coming to Chattanooga 5 days in advance and he was joked about until it happened. Met Paul Barys at WRCB. I will always remember that and the storm until I die.
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This might belong in a banter thread but I didn't see one except for summer banter unless I am overlooking it. Just read that NWS Morristown's chief meteorologist who's worked for Morristown for over 20 years is retiring. I'm wondering with that sort of experience with our complicated region departing how forecasts may be affected. I imagine some of the backtracking we've seen over the years where overnight would get aggressive then day time back peddle if that was the chief sort of moderating things based on his region knowledge and climatology. Thought it was interesting to share.
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Gotta admit this is my favorite type of winter storm. I know it's not forum wide but these are the good long duration snows that really pile up the snow in Eastern areas of the forum when we get them, they often over produce with waves working through that are not always seen until go time and a little backing of the flow occasionally. Would love to get one of these this year. Their NW precip shield also goes well beyond what is modeled 99% of the time.
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5.5 was my total twice. I sent in my final spotter report about 10 minutes after I went over to sleet and freezing rain and didn't report again after that, at that point I measured 5.5, right at the end of the fluffy snow, then I got light sleet and freezing rain for several hours and it compacted to 4 inches, but then the back side of the storm I got additional fluffy accumulations of 1.5" which brought me back up to 5.5 before if finally came to a complete end. I do wonder how many reports were after compaction that was ingested into their data. I knew once it switched compaction would occur so wanted to get my final measurement right at that point.
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I've picked up about another inch and a half since it started snowing again earlier after the freezing rain. My accumulations dropped to 4" after the rain but gained 1.5 again taking me back to my original total. Still snowing but very lightly now. Still fast enough rate to continue to add to totals just at a slower pace. I'm just amazed that it's snowing at a good rate albeit low pace and not really being able to be picked up on radar.
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Hope I switch back soon if that whole slug of moisture coming East is freezing rain I'm going to have quite the glaze. I've noticed holly bushes on the property are starting to droop more than during the height of the snow. The ice is starting to add enough weight to limbs to cause them to droop a bit.