ShawnEastTN

GFS is never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down... Seriously it's now depicting snow further south than it has so far, almost to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

About as wicked as it gets! Thats what it looks like with only 1"-2" of high rstio powder snow with that crazy wind! Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Cheyenne currently. https://fb.watch/hzx67t_rlT/?mibextid=NnVzG8 Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Yeah I don't like most of the modeling trends this evening, but really think we are in for some surprises with this storm. I think the odds are higher for a surprise because historically surprises come in 2 flavors, very weak systems, and insanely over amped systems. Doesn't mean we'll get a surprise but a possibility. I think someone in the region is going to score well beyond what's modeled/forecast. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Hope that trends that way all the way up to the event, the further south the closer we are to the dynamics and deeper moisture. Would love for this storm to blow modeling up collectively. Happens every so often with winter storms, especially powerful atypical type storms. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

What is interesting to me if snow amounts are more even a small amount more say 3" with the wind as strong as its going to be and the powdery nature of this type of snow, there could be times of serious visibility issues with near whiteout conditions from blowing snow. Would be amazing to see if we end up with more than currently forecast. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

I'm surprised MRX hasn't pulled the trigger, not so much about snow amounts, as much as the combination of flash freeze, light snow and wind chill combined makes for dangerous travel right at high travel days. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

MRX afternoon disco is up. I noticed my point forecast snow accumulation increased, not by much from less than .5", to less than an inch so decided to check if they had the discussion up, MRX mentions they were slightly increasing snowfall amounts due to WPC guidance. Good read though. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

I think downsloping plays a part in most anafrontal situations, but the flow in most anafrontal situations is more w to nw. The flow post fropa is mostly modeled as due north, while that still contends with downslope, I question how much it affects the situation being from that direction instead of W to NW. I think this storm is a unicorn of sorts without a standard analog to compare. I think most of what we are seeing with qpf as modeled with the southern extent of the precip generally speaking is that its drying up as it moves east. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Always the issue, holding out hope that this fropa is so strong that it'll be as if there is no terrain impediment with the plateau. Can't recall an analog likely due to how infrequently an arctic front of this caliber comes through. Wish I had an analog to point to in regard to plateau not slowing the cold, hoping and even expecting it'll bulldoze its way through faster than pretty much all events in recent memory. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

January 2014 had crazy cold too, I had to travel to Michigan to a hospital for a family member and that was the winter when every media outlet began saying "Polar Votex" in relation to the cold in an almost doomsday type term really talking it up. The day I left Michigan for the drive back to Tennessee it was -15 air temp in Detroit with howling winds and blowing snow windchill in the 30 to 40 below zero range. Got home in Tennessee that night and it was -1 air temp in Knoxville. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Yeah it actually looks better than previous runs to me. Moisture looks deeper and more of a SW fetch over the local region than previous runs. Odd looking even with that shape of the precip shield over Tennessee but a good look. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Oh the DGEX model!!! I had forgotten that all together until you said Earl Barker. That thing put out insane clowns. I miss those, they used to get folks so worked up!! Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

I'm riding the GFS until this time tomorrow. Then I'll start hugging the meso models in particular the RGEM, but I'm a bit unnerved at the RGEM really want to see it come around because it used to score well inside 48 hours in particular. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Pretty much 3/4 of Minnesota is exactly how you picture it. The hilly area is mostly far northern Minnesota especially nearest to Lake Superior in the Arrowhead/Iron region. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Montana, there are so many 'M' states and their abbreviations are so similar. Though Minnesota does have valleys, albeit low relief valleys. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Clipper looks super stout behind the storm also on the 0z GFS. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Best run of the GFS in the last 24 hours! Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Anyone notice the clipper on the 18z GFS after the storm. Would be nice to get snow while we've been below freezing for a few days. With the deep cold behind this system a clipper can drop a nice high ratio snow. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Agree, guess they view GFS as a bit of an outsider or 18z trended less. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Something else to note until this powerhouse storm gets through models will have a hard time seeing any clippers or energy diving out of the plains behind the storm. Think we still have potential for something after the storm, but before troughing eases back. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Agree, this will probably be the worst rapid freeze up we've had in many, many years. The wet surfaces will rapidly become encased in ice then covered in whatever amount of snow we get. This could be one of the worst events for roadways in quite a long time and of course occurring on a high travel period. I fully expect winter weather products to be issued by all the regions NWS offices for the freeze up during high travel days even if we get only an inch or less snow. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Usually in anafrontal snow chasing rain situations if you are in the Great Valley of East Tennessee you painfully watch and wait for the cold to spill over the plateau it creates a daming that slows the cold and allows moisture to exit before the cold spills over meaning we often get ripped off. However I think this may be the strongest arctic front I can remember in at least a decade, and with the pressure gradient I don't think the plateau will hold the cold back and create the delay we often see. This likely has high potential to bust higher in the Great Valley than normal anafrontal events of the past, keeping in mind though that most anafrontal events for the valley of east Tennessee are dusting to an inch type of events for most, so to bust higher doesnt mean crazy amounts but still potentially higher than most anafrontal events. Kind of excited to see this transpire, definitely not our everyday arctic front scenario. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Agree! There is a storm in history that resulted in one of largest maritime disasters in US history and the largest ever on the great lakes that resulted in 250 sailors deaths in 24 hours. It was named "The White Hurricane" and occurred in 1913, good read BTW if reading on it. While weather forecasting is better than back in 1913 so wouldn't expect the maritime industry to be wrecked like that, but this storm could be a "White Hurricane" with those pressures modeled!! Crazy low pressure would likely be 30 foot waves on Lake Michigan and Huron also possible Superior, even here those NW winds will be howling as currently modeled. Wouldn't be surprised if as modeled, that most of the forum area would go under High Wind Warnings, mountains for sure but possibly even lower elevations. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

Yeah my fear as well. The whole suppression city situation where storms are pushed to Cuba. However even in those scenarios the transitions at the beginning and end of the cold snap give chances historically. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk