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ShawnEastTN

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Everything posted by ShawnEastTN

  1. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah if it pans out it'll be the longest duration snowfall for me in many many years. As modeled with 18z GFS, IMBY and Knoxville proper it's just shy of a 24 hour continuous event in totality. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  2. ShawnEastTN
    Cove Mtn MRX just reported a 105 Mph gust with sustained winds of 62 Mph. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  3. ShawnEastTN
    Starting to see Morristown releasing graphics with higher totals now. Even Chatty bump to 30% of 2" or more. Just posted on their FB feed: Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  4. ShawnEastTN
    Like you mentioned a few days ago the Euro on the last storm system vastly under modeled QPF. In many instances the verified QPF was under modeled by the Euro by 3:1. It may do so again with this storm. If we get the Euro on board with similar placement and tracking as others then I personally am not that concerned about it's QPF forecast. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  5. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I was kind of worried about the same thing. Didn't have time this morning to really check in until now and pleasantly surprised. Not only is GFS doubling down, but looks like Euro might be trending in the right direction. Not a bad place to be this morning. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  6. ShawnEastTN
    By the 0z GFS having low sitting about 50 miles from Hatteras its another shift westward. Today the GFS has shifted the low track about 200 miles total westward. If we can get this thing running inside Hatteras like through Albemarle Sound that back far western precip shield will include Nashville. For GFS that is a trend westward with the low track on the operational through the day today. Also even as modeled the precip shield both north and west extent is under modeled likely as we see in these storms pretty much every year for as far as I can remember. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  7. ShawnEastTN
    Hey anything sub 70 hours it's gospel! [emoji38] Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  8. ShawnEastTN
    Looks to me at hour 120 12Z GFS, the low is centered about 100 miles west of 6z GFS for the same point in time. If we can get that to continue until that sucker is nearer to the coast... At 120 that low though is 100 miles closer to Hatteras than it was at 6Z. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Hopefully it's a transition from the frontal passage scenario to a full blown storm. Will be interesting to see 0Z tonight. Euro went to popping a low, hopefully that is what GFS is heading toward. If we can get a low, get the front to stall or slow dramatically and the low head north we are in better shape than just Fropa. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  10. ShawnEastTN
    Not just the lollipop, often the Chattanooga snow hole in models goes all the way to Roane county and rarely is that ever accurate. Usually in real life that snow hole is really primarily just Hamilton county but models drag it north to almost Oak Ridge often. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  11. ShawnEastTN
    I don't either, usually those occur for warm nose, this setup just won't have one that pronounced I believe. 0z definitely has better looking QPF overall. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  12. ShawnEastTN
    Rain snow mix at 38 IMBY. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  13. ShawnEastTN
    I really wouldn't be surprised if in future runs it pops a low in the Gulf that hopefully will be a good tracking storm. Fingers crossed it does. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  14. ShawnEastTN
    Agree, though I also think it appears to be moving through faster on 18z compared to previous runs. CAA seems to blast further south quicker. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  15. ShawnEastTN
    Makes me question the calculations between Weatherbell and Pivotal weather as they don't seem to line up. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  16. ShawnEastTN
    Here is kuchera Sunday before the storm. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  17. ShawnEastTN
    Essentially only down around Chattanooga is it around an inch. Though I don't fully understand considering it depicted snow the entire time, so must be accounting on some mixing to occur there. Chattanooga aside it's roughly the same 3-4" with some spots going 5-6". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  18. ShawnEastTN
    18Z GFS holds serve. Maybe a tad colder, and deeper with CAA speed. Basically full state snow, no mixing even Chattanooga rain snow line is close to Tennessee border but appears to stay south of state line. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  19. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I wanted to look at the Memphis radar but appears it's under maintenance so can't get a good look out that way. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  20. ShawnEastTN
    Looks like the precip modeled to build into the region this evening and tonight for snow showers is starting to show on OHX radar heading east. See some Mping reports of snow and mixed precip near Memphis currently. Maybe this will over produce like the rain QPF did with this system. I wouldn't be surprised considering the Great Lakes are wide open and the storm is interacting with the open water as that low passes through the eastern lakes. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  21. ShawnEastTN
    Roaring here too occasionally. It's so loud in the woods behind and around my house I can hear the roar through the trees if I have everything turned off in the house. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  22. ShawnEastTN
    YES well said! QPF modeled for me from this event on Euro was 1.57, I received 3.46". Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  23. ShawnEastTN
    BTW not related to the coming event but Gatlinburg is blaring warning sirens with loud speaker messages asking people to seek higher ground. [emoji991] Watch this video on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/share/v/VD8qmva8V7ih8Q5u/?mibextid=4p3i6U Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  24. ShawnEastTN
    Absolutely! Years of marginal temps, this would be awesome. Also not a typical southern snow that is gone the next day, as modeled mostly we'd have snow on the ground for up to a week. I haven't seen that in at least a decade. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
  25. ShawnEastTN
    OHX on FB just now: Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
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