ShawnEastTN

Yeah hard to imagine for me as well. Hopefully it comes fully around at 6Z, 0Z was a huge step in the right direction.

I didn't say they would or should, but I bet they have extensively talked about Hamilton county. The probability outputs they have released a lot of Hamilton County at least southern 2/3 fall below 50% threshold for 3" or more. However northern Hamilton County has tended to fall about 50% and up for 3". Safe thing would be to leave Hamilton in the WSW, but an argument based on guidance can be made for either a WInter Weather Advisory, or Winter Storm Warning. Bradley, Polk and SW NC there is no real argument Advisory based on what MRX is sharing makes sense.

Right, I bet 6Z will complete the cave toward the majority of modeling and no longer blank most of the eastern forum.

Yeah I suspect they might consider pulling Hamilton County out of the WSW, and maybe change it to Advisory and add Bradley, Polk and SW NC counties. Though there is a strong case to leave Hamilton County in the WSW since portions of the county meet the criteria for WSW. I think Overnight shift at MRX will likely pull the trigger. For western areas of the CWA may begin before dawn on Monday. My point forecast I have 40% change of snow beginning at 1AM Monday morning.

Usually issued up to 24 hours in advance, not usually before 24 hours but they have some discretion.

If nothing crazy at 0z tonight I'll be hugging Euro as my global, and hugging the RGEM for short range. We are entering the time that RGEM is generally pretty accurate.

I really like the thickness of the accumulation area with this model. Isn't this going to replace a few other models eventually including HRRR?

Interesting to see his point on the axis of heavier snow considering he was a former OHX Met, definitely puts some weight behind his opinion. Might also explain other Met decisions of not moving the axis south in their forecasts.

I think it does, but I think only nominally so. Any evaporative body can contribute to low level moisture. Similar to summer with trees when fully leafed large forests especially rainforests transpiration from the foliage itself plays a role in RH in low levels. I think a highly saturated ground would assist RH but I just don't think it would be a significant amount, but any and all sources contribute and help.

Absolutely! I think there will be a long band that over performs by potentially several inches.

In the past I would watch that sort of slosh of cool and warm blobs either from CAA or Downsloping & WAA depending on the situation on Wunderground PWS map full screen to see as much of the valley as possible at once. Very fun thing to see those pools slosh back and forth before mixing.

This makes sense! I've always noticed in storms with strong downsloping along the mountains, before mixing occurs the warm air against the mountains pushes a cool pocket in the valley up against the eastern escarpment of the plateau. Almost like a bathtub sloshing. What you are describing is similar but in the other direction cold coming off the plateau displacing and pushing the relative warm pool toward the mountains. All of this before it all mixes and normalizes.

Yeah I read that as literally the Georgia border area as their only thermal concerns since they specifically say southernmost counties.

I just don't buy the thermals of NAM and end of HRRR. The mechanisms for that just isn't there unless this is going to become a major Gulf storm. The only thing in East that might affect Thermals would be downsloping, but even that I just can't see being supercharged. The flow just isn't that great over the mountains to push temps way up. East should sink deep into the 20's and Teens Monday morning clouds socked in before daybreak. Without a strong Gulf storm, without strong flow over the mountains it just doesn't make sense to me that thermals go into torch mode as the end of the short-range models are suggesting. Not wish casting just don't see the fundamentals for an Eastern torch. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

This is why a lot of Mets ride the NMB. It's the safer route than picking a single winning model. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Wonder if it has ingested the 0Z GFS, I would assume so. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Agree 100%. Remembering back to similar overrunning events the precip shield was often greatly under-modeled. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Chatty a sweet spot this run Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

GFS just isn't giving up. Edit: maybe losing QPF a tick faster. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Yeah I think that is a serious problem. Though I wasn't really referring to the plateau sections vs city but that also, most modeling has shown a huge difference from state line, which close to 40 miles from Birchwood in northern Hamilton on Meigs border. Similar for Meigs itself large differences across the roughly 40 miles from Birchwood on the Hamilton county line to Ten Mile on the Roane line. I've always hated that generally only tornado warnings and flood advisories seem to be the only products issued granularly with the exception of splitting the mountain counties by elevation which they do. 40 miles from one side to the other of a county can be very different in terms of weather conditions. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Agree especially considering portions of Hamilton county is consistently 3" or higher even if chatty isn't. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Quite possibly they were my first as well in that same timeframe, came over here in 2014. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Many many years ago so much it makes me feel really old, before I knew AmericanWX had forums those old DGEX outputs would set the old SouthEast forum on AccuWeather on fire! I swear sometimes it was a combination zoo & MMA sprinkled with a little weather. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Someone got the DGEX for old time sake? I really miss it so much. I guarantee it would show the storm of the century right about now. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

I understand this fear really really well. How many times over the years have we watch it take ages for cold air to filter over the plateau only to arrive when precip was ending. However I feel this is different primarily because of the initial cold front coming in now, and start time of precip especially for west and Middle as it will be at night likely, though even in Mid East Tennessee my forecast low Monday morning before precip start is 24 degrees. As sun comes up it will already be overcast and with dry air in place will likely start as virga which will help keep temperatures down through evaporative cooling. I don't really hold this as a great fear in this setup as I would if there weren't already seasonal cold in place. Many times we are above seasonal and then depending on the Arctic front to overcome above seasonal temps which just isn't the case this time with good cold air already entrenched. If I have a fear it's actually the dry air and not really over coming it quick enough. But with good Gulf connection that doesn't really spook me too much either. Just my thoughts. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk