ShawnEastTN

My road which is a secondary state highway was brined yesterday, scraped and salted by TDOT at 730 this morning.

Closing in on 3" Northern Meigs on the Roane line. View into the woods behind my house. Flakes are small mostly but coming down at a good clip, my phone camera isn't good at picking them up though

Ok heaviest snow so far IMBY. Much heavier than last night. If I can keep these rates I can believe an additional 6" or 7" on top of my 2" from last night/early morning.

Yeah I suspect as the day goes along pavements will start to get covered. The ground temp is radiating through pavement keeping just a bit warmer, but suspect as time goes on and heavier snow moves in and temps stay below freezing those surfaces will start to freeze.

Interesting I'm under the lighter stuff on your image on the northern edge of your image like heading toward Knoxville and it's snowing as hard as it did during the night last night and seems to be slowly picking up. I'll be at 2" probably within the hour. 1.75" of that occurred during the night. I wonder what your temp and dewpoint are where you are located.

Similar to me about 1.75" here on grass mostly. Though that blossoming band just reached me and right on queue it's picking back up after that pause during the night. I really think that is the reason models a few days ago had timing issues. Many models didn't start snow until this morning for East Tennessee, and interestingly this morning is when the primary heavier snow is set to begin and persist through the day. I look at the night time stuff as just bonus and the real deal is what we get today through tonight.

Take a look at Hytop!!! Precip blossoming and really increasing in intensity upstream of East Tennessee.

I've had off and on again moderate rates. I'm already sitting at about a half inch. I really was only expecting the tiniest dusting until the morning when the heavier snow forms up the valley. At this rate I'll have 3 inches by daybreak.

I started with snow at 35. It doesn't need to be freezing to get flakes, but as it started snowing the temp fell fast from 35 to now 29.7.

I think you are right. Something is different, I generally don't use MRX radar for snow from the Southwest, and generally flip over Hytop. Radar scope defaults to MRX though when launching the app and I can see snow returns southwest of me from the Morristown radar. Usually Morristown doesn't even really show stuff over me. That's awesome, whatever they did.

Got a good dusting going now. Temp down to 30.2

First flakes! It's made it to the eastern valley, Northern Meigs County. I guess shouldn't be as afraid of dry air as I was. They are tiny puny dry flakes but flakes none the less. Temp is 35, dewpoint 18.

You in Rhea County correct? If so it's absolutely past you, I'm in Meigs and it's already passed me.

Northern Meigs County in the valley my weather station showing the CAA is inbound. Dewpoint falling super fast and temps are falling as well but slower. So appears things are moving as they should at least for here and upstream of Knoxville. Generally what happens here in my neck of the woods is what is coming for West Knox in these setups.

Yes 2015 was the similar event I was waxing poetic about early in the day that way over performed.

Was just getting ready to post that. I like following OHX graphics as they show my area generally in the graphic. Gives me an idea what their thoughts are for western areas of the MRX CWA.

Little backing up against Frozen Head can't hurt at all. I'm a touch worried about dryness taking a while to overcome being about 8 miles from the foot of the eastern escarpment.

I think there are good odds of over performing in your area.

Probably if it begins over producing they will. Very possible those border counties in KY might over perform.

I don't know if I remember the year accurately but in the 2010's we had a similar overrunning event like this initially MRX forecast 2-5" for central valley and 1-2 southern valley, 3-6 for plateau, northeast & mountains. As the event unfolded it way way over performed in ratios and energy including a lee low. As the night dragged on they kept updating the totals until most everyone was forecast 10"-12" even southern valley. I ended that storm at 10". There are definitely times we score well beyond initial forecast in these setups. Though for every over score we probably have 2 busts.

Speaking of OBS, are we going to use this thread for OBS as well or new thread?

Yeah I think a lot of bias is playing into the ratio forecasting much like mixing is. I think the depth and strength of the cold isn't really being modeled well by most and that ratios will be higher likely than most models are showing.

Could be. Remembering back across a lot of storms that were in similar type situations it seemed MRX started sort of under the higher guidance and then just bumped totals as the event was underway. Similar to WVLT over the last 24 hours. Yesterday saying 1-2, then 2-3, now saying 2-5. Before long they'll be 4-6 or more.

MRX mentions some light snow and flurries possible with the front along the border counties tonight and SW VA in their update disco. That is technically our Arctic front that's going to lead to the fun later.

Agree, it's either going to fall in line or every other model will cave to it and it'll score a huge huge coup. I still view it as an outsider especially since it moved in the direction of a most other guidance tonight unless we start seeing other move towards the NAM at 0Z, then I might start worrying.