ShawnEastTN

Wondering if I can rival last year's -1 temp over the next couple mornings. Probably not as last year when that occurred I had 10" of snowpack. This year nada.

Got down to 8 and slowly climbing now up to 10.

Ok maybe mother nature is trying to prove something, first time today I've stepped up above flurries to an honest to goodness snow shower. Maybe there is hope yet imby.

Same here, downslope by the plateau. Cold windy with a few dry flakes here and there. For me the trajectory needs to be more NNW to see anything, not really sure why that works but regular NW doesn't.

I also still have some large areas of snow that survived the rain on my property. If lucky might beat last year when snow survived 16 days.

Same reason why our best chances for a winter storm regardless of month is the beginning or ending of a cold blast. The transitions have the moisture.

This is a hope I've been clinging to. A good example was the most recent cold which wasn't as extreme as originally modeled. That scenario the Met describes makes sense if the cold isn't as strong as modeled, and I hold on to hope that the late week storm that the GFS advertises is a perfect track storm that we at least get if we don't get the over running.

Looks like GFS is doing both over running event for beach towns and winding up a storm as a cutter to wrap up this cold shot before it likely reinforces another cold shot after the cutter. Could have redeemed itself and given us a good miller with a good track to round it out instead of a cutter if we aren't getting the over running.

Now to see what it does end of week, if anything.

GFS might finally be coming around to the deep south event and away from Millers or cutters. It at least has some heavy snow for Gulf beaches, and a low centered on the Yucatan Peninsula. Lol. Only out to 0z Wednesday. That run only beach towns get snow no one more than 50ish miles inland get anything.

I still have 2-ish and some areas close 3 inches in shaded areas. My house sits on a North facing ridge so almost the entire yard is still snowing covered, and the whole ridge North facing side, still has at least 2 inches of snow. Though today is the best melt day so far, feels like spring.

Yeah didn't Houston and Galveston score then I think and we couldn't pay for snow, along with southern Louisiana. Edit - not sure how I duplicated your quote...

The GFS even if wrong might be on to something either way with a potential miller of some sort nearing the end of the cold event or a cutter of doom. Still wrong in timing but could ultimately be right in pattern.

It's not game over for your area yet.

In this iteration of the GFS, it's more a Miller than an over running event with a low passing from New Orleans to Virginia and up the coast. My take on 18z GFS what it's advertising for Thursday Friday is a second storm towards the end of the cold blast, the over running event is a separate event that is suppressed to absolute oblivion on 18z GFS, but instead it winds a storm up near the end of the polar blast at the end of the week. So really 2 different events, would be great if we can get both of them actually. Imagine over running event at the start of the cold blast and miller at the end. Not impossible to get both, start and end of cold blasts are the sweet spots winter weather.