Supernovice

I do read what you write and respect your opinion. Which is why you’re like the only person I interact with on this board re: finance. My point is and has always been that just to say rates rise= stocks fall isn’t correct. We all know the economy is a complex system, but our primitive brains can’t handle that, so we all get into this mind trap of constructing a neat narrative to explain everything. Will rates rising have a negative impact on short term stock valuations- probably, but to what extent and for how long? What other factors are at play...what’s dollar strength look like, what about the prices of raw materials and commodities? Rates are but one small piece of much larger puzzle.

I mean I guess if you’re talking specific stocks...maybe? But here goes- not my research but it’s money: From 1954-1960, the 10 year treasury yield went from 2.3% to 4.7%. In that time, the S&P 500 was up 207% in total (17.4% annualized). Then from 1971-1981, rates went vertical, rising from 6.2% to 13.7%. This period included sky-high inflation and the brutal 1973-1974 crash, but nominal returns were still pretty decent, at 113% in total (7.1% annual). From 1993-1994, rates shot up from 6.6% to 8.0%. The S&P 500 was still up nearly 12% in total despite some carnage in the bond market. At the tail-end of the dot-com bubble, rates rose from 5.5% in 1998 to 6.5% in 1999. Didn’t matter. Stocks were up more than 55% (although that was followed by a 50% crash beginning in early-2000). From 2003 through 2007, rates went from 3.3% to 5.1%. The S&P rose nearly 83% (12.8% annualized) before the onset of the 2008 crash. And the latest rising rate environment saw the 10 year go from 1.5% in 2012 to 3% by 2018. Even with the mini-bear market at the end of 2018, stocks were still up 131% in total.

We don’t agree on much but the debate is always cordial. I would put forth that rising rates are ++ for stocks. For instance see this from 6 yrs ago: http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2015/03/fearful-of-rising-rates-stocks-have-you.html Also this is different from say 2018 when the curve was volatile on the short end, last week it was the long end...which to me signals economic optimism. Secondly, last week may have been exacerbated by CTA repositioning...the 2/5/10 yr butterfly trade moved 24 bps which is a true black swan event in that market- like literally a 1 in a billion year event if you calc it out. Down week, little flushing...I like the reset here.

Oooo look it’s the resident door to door salesman/ armchair epidemiologist... If only we all could have had his great foresight.

I know this is ghoulish but....hindsight being 20/20 it seems that constructing your utility grid so it’s completely walled off from the federal grid, because ya know... secessionists, may have a downside.

What he did- being a registered broker and working for mass mutual, while posting stock picks on the internet is what the SEC is looking at. He prob will and should lose his license, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the CFA did something as well. The rules around this are very stringent. Historically I’ve had to upload my personal accounts to a company platform for real time monitoring, clear trades internally before executing, been barred from owning anything but index funds or combination of all of the above. These rules are taken very seriously by the SEC and any financial company’s HR dept. He’s basically untouchable from a hiring perspective- not that he cares anymore.

Also the gradient within Tolland city limits was insane. A five inch gradient in one town, ALMOST unheard of. Can’t be expected to nail that.

I think that’s going to be me...prob a foot here already- it has been incredible.

Red jacket down in Dennis? I think it’s Dennis has a good one. It’s a par 3 course but in excellent shape and very challenging. Also a great jumping off point to play wherever you want on the cape. I did that for a few yrs w my dad...lessons in the morning, all you can play after that. Felt like I was on tour. sunday river is also great- love that course. Although getting up there is annoying. And I think you’re married to that course if you go up there, although others may know the bethel area better than I.

Eye of the beholder I guess...85% against severe disease and 100% against death. Single dose. No cold storage. My opinion is that this is a great day for the less developed world in particular. If you told me a year ago we’d be in this spot re:vaccines I would have taken it and ran. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Those results from JnJ are about as good as one could expect. Great day for the world. In other news, today we go to the moon. Lol

He was comparing you to DT- aka dick tolleris . Beyond that I dunno edit: wait is that DT’s actual name?- lol

ill just leave this here: On 1/16/2021 at 1:53 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 4”+ is a lock OTG by this time next Sat

Trust me I get the frustration but....Robinhood and others that offer commission free trades are not doing so out of the goodness of their hearts. They sell your order flow to hedge funds that then front you and make you pay slightly more per share...fractions of a cent that you don’t even notice. The selling of order flow is robinhoods business model- that’s it. So when the hedge funds say jump, robinhood is always going ask how high? It’s like your free checking account at whatever bank you use... that’s really paid for by overdraft fees of primarily lower income people, there’s no free lunch anywhere unfortunately

I tried and got shot down- granted I have no real credibility here as a poster so... But I for one promise to behave if we are given the go ahead.

They own a ton of good ip ya and they have good recurring rev’s. But that was like 8 yrs ago- haven’t looked at it since. Lol no options with personal money- I have a family. My bubble basket is just amc and bb right now and I’m just in for fun. I liked it more @ close than now. This whole storyline is just so absurd.

I did an lengthy analysis of BB in business school and came away thinking the same as you. but it’s not the reason I bought it- lol

Into amc at 15.50. Now it’s halted. Never has there been a worse investment thesis.

Citadel/ Point72 buy order flow to front run, Retail creates a short squeeze, Citadel et al buy Melvin for pennies on the dollar. Citadel/Point72 make out x2. Good business to be in.

Lol absolutely love it. I need to tell my grandkids I took part in the great hedge fund reckoning of 2021

Watch AMC, my fun $$ is going there at the open.

Good thing he didn’t.

Friend bought new const. in holliston. Absolutely beautiful, but ya very expensive town- but good schools etc...Great place to live. One thing we need to remember when talking home prices is the per month mortgage pmt is basically unch even before inflation since the 80’s. Although our houses are bigger and less people live in them. That’s probably more at a national level tho but still.

Meant family night at the movies- not a big movie guy or superhero guy for that matter. Let the pillaging begin.