ROOSTA

Inside of 24hrs? Thermal profile. Used in warm season for QPF and timing.

Welcome to the show!

What is known, what is unknown? Keepin it real... personal reflect goes a long way. Ironing out QPF, translating to ratios won't be known till. I use the meso's (when in range) heavily on the SREF plume MEAN to pinpoint amounts.

IT'S THE NAM... Not A Model, especially for winter type storms.

Using words as: Possible, First Call, At this time, Subject to change. Will quiet the naysayers. It's a tough field when 99% of the populous have no idea what it entails.

Might start hearing the coveted B word. As it occludes it is a warm core Winter Hurricane.

The CONUS WV shows the ULL system in real-time. Compare where the models initialize that will give a good indication of how, what but won't answer to where.

A fantastic explanation. Much appreciated John. Thank-you If members just read your posts they could learn meteorology without even taking a course.

HOLD ON TO YOUR WEENIES! Nothing resolved, well maybe only a huge storm is about to befall y'all. Complexities of which might just come down to the dreaded "nowcast" Time just flies by. I sit and then look at the time. I thought is was like 10am. FASCINATING!

oops 976 I make mistakes like that all the time. Geez 776 would be end-of-days. Carry-on, my bad.

Not by the models, and far from wish-casting. 970-980Mb is a good ballpark figure.

Yes. I'm really rooting for you guys. Just don't see it playing out as most are portraying. Subject to changing my mind. he-he-he

It is what it is. At the height of the storm SFC temperatures are marginal at best. I have no idea where or why I'm "downing" this. Playing devil's advocate to a possible solution.

Locations along the E MA. coast (CC) @100MPH in GUSTS. Still thinking ORH south and east will be toast. A 30 burger just over in NY State.

Still a little convoluted in model land for snow amounts, to many variables still need to be iron out. The prolific 3' amounts are rare even in perfect conditions in the depth of mid-winter. Based on 06z the track is NOT near the BM, the projected stall and capture will more than likely produce a dry slot into E areas. Expect marine taint well inland maybe as far as the Berks keeping QPF way down. Fronto magic will deliver the goods well N and W further than the models are currently producing. Given the marginal airmass elevation will help. Expect random snow-falling in one location and drizzle, light rain next town over, back and forth. By the time the storm matures it's to late the column will cool most in the southern 3 states will be left with light left over snows. I think many are in for a disappointment! Like we haven't seen this before.

Still a long way to go until this gets resolved! I don't trust anything the OP's are running out and will be far from what actually happens. A friigin butterfly could fart in Idaho and change the overall pattern, timing and evolution. It's not like A+B-C*D/F=Z

OH-OH, Red flags starting to appear. Members attitudes about to take a 180, watch the sniping and derogatory comments start. I hope it doesn't, but snow IMBY is taken so personally. In the scheme of life, it is so trivial and insignificant. In importance probably doesn't make the top 100. Personally, it's always been the tracking come event time it's always been a letdown then on to looking for the next.

A long duration event. What is the longest duration for a single storm? 1969 comes to mind for a day to day snow event but that was overrunning week-long Everready Bunny. Kept on going...and going.. Even if a powerhouse, deep 960 comes in at 975- 980Mb it's going to be historic.

18z GFS Height of the storm. One in a million girl, she's a beauty!

The coast is going to get ravaged. A solution that stacks and loops will have a huge fetch flooding for multiple high tide cycles. CF is going to be critical as to who gets what. We have all been here before.

There are some 40" amounts showing up in NE PA on that run. Widespread 1-2'+ for local New England area. BOMBS AWAY! I'll only have a FROPA drop in temperature, a passing boomer or two. Locals here will be hyping a late season cold wave. LOL

GO BIG or GO HOME. It's these events that I tend to be glued to the computer. Often go sleep deprived and get an adrenaline rush. THIS IS NOT NORMAL. Love it!

I like the plunge into the sink-hole abyss. Classic!

One has to wonder why the OP model(s) are waffling? Can't make a sound forecast or predict what the next run will produce. I believe it's normal given the timeframe. Nuisances, driving forces inclusive of all the variabilities upstream, downstream produce different outcomes. Pointing out the difference between the run to run (some do it better than others) with scientific reasoning is one of the greatest attribute for having a forum. To a member nobody will forecast the exact outcome. It's nice to be tracking winter before severe season and the tropics take to the headlines.

Declaration of PTYPE is premature IMO att. It's all dependent on how the atmospheric chaos shakes-out. Everything is still on the table. Signal is strong, repeat SIGNAL IS STRONG. Based on ENSEMBLES and models coming to an agreement (somewhat) this event has a fantastic chance to produce. One must consider a huge gradient with man-sized CF. Watch the winds and flooding coastal tides if the storm achieves its potential.