wxdawg10

paste job triangle SW and NE on EURO. feels like models are all in agreement. Hopefully everyone gets at least a little snow at some point.

he's a believer.

tbh Huffman and Eric Webb are pretty good for RDU. Robert as well (wxsouth) can't go wrong with any of em

Elizabeth Gardner was a Fishel prodigy at WRAL. Ole Gregg still lives on in her. I've been reading her forecast posts for friday and saturday for 3 days and she has tried everything to avoid saying the word snow. Mentioning model solutions that showed rain and freezing rain. Only today do they seem sorta kinda on board.

The Euro is not what it used to be..alot of METS will ride and die by the Euro even when it's the outlier. Then again..living in NC we're all too familiar with the prospects of getting burned lol. So i don't really blame him for being a skeptic until more is known

thanks for holding on to hope..

It's just basically a GFS knockoff. these "inhouse" models are never reliable outside 24hrs.

I think Central NC is still in a good spot. If anything, i see the Low trending more east than west the closer we get. I don't think the models have a good grip on the strength of the wedge yet. we shall see. i would hold off on the cliff diving and celebrations no matter where you are. Someone is gonna get crushed and someone is gonna get screwed. This is the nature of SE storms. good luck everyone

what are you talking about? This storm is performing like it was predicted to. 2-4 inches around the triangle, 3-6 inches points northeast. No one predicted a foot of snow anywhere in NC or VA. you can't hug models when they're spewing clown maps and choose to ignore experienced mets who predict reasonable totals. Thats on you.

where do you see that? if anything, its playing out as expected and its trending towards more snow.

flurries here in Durham

From Robert. thinks the nam is too warm temp wise. Someone is getting 10+ inches out of this

i'm not trying to get my hopes up too high as many of us know..but i will say that in the past, alot of storms trended warmer and less snowy the closer we got. this is the opposite. it's been trending snowier and storms that trend snowier the closer you get tend to verify. local mets and NWS will always be conservative until the signs are too strong to be denied. Always easier to bust with higher totals than getting cold rain when you predict 10 inches. I like Eric Webb's take on this. also WXSOUTH, one of the mets i respect the most had a great discussion on why this thing might overperform.

yep sounds like he's all in. Putting all my chips in too

RAH Wont bite unless every model is showing 5+ inches within 12 hours. i don't blame them we've all been burned so many times being conservative just makes sense

Due to it's history yes the NAM has been great sniffing out the warm nose. But that doesn't mean it isn't prone to mistakes. The HRRR has a good record too in this time frame. could go either way

Posted 11 minutes ago ...Significant Winter Storm to Impact much of Central North Carolinas tonight through Monday... .A developing winter storm will spread heavy snow and ice across central North Carolina tonight and Sunday. Some wintry precipitation may linger Sunday night into Monday prolonging the storm. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow late tonight and Sunday morning, becoming mixed snow and freezing rain Sunday afternoon. A transition to all freezing rain is possible Sunday afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch expected. * WHERE...A corridor of the eastern Piedmont and northwest Sandhills regions of central North Carolina. This includes much of the Triangle area. * WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel is likely to be very difficult Sunday and Sunday night. Even in locations with lesser snow accumulations, the potential for accumulations of snow and freezing rain combined will impact travel. Downed trees and limbs may create significant power outages additional travel hazards. * Temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning, rising into the lower 30s Sunday afternoon and evening. they pulled the trigger

definitely

wow

if this verifies..new king on the block.

i think he meant January 2017. the infamous bust

I think Allan mentioned earlier that alot of the moisture will get eaten up by dryer air as it moves into the piedmont and the storm won't really crank until sunday. This might cut some totals and i'm not sure if models take this into account.

i think it'll go up the closer we get to the event. radar already looking extremely healthy. that plus the model trends overnight i don't see how they don't.

someone posted a link to a really discussion from NWS blacksburg that mentioned the WAA may not be as pronounced as originally modeled for anyone wondering. might be another reason why totals are getting beefed up by the models. might be picking up on it. it'll prob still mix around wake co but more wintry atleast at this point

Even the NAM has slowly been trending more southern i think it'll come in line with the other models pretty soon