wxdawg10

RAH never bit on this storm either. Also credit to Brad P, he was never sold on the NW trend and people were fighting him on twitter about it. Times like these make you realize why they are pro and we are amateurs.

The all mighty "king" Euro bows down and caves in spectacular fashion to the GFS..the real king? knew it was over when people started model hugging the CMC as the great beacon of hope. oh well.

lol. the only person the models fooled was you. everyone else here was cautious. i hope you remember all this next time a storm is modeled. for your own good. You live in NC. this is what happens. accept it.

Brick. I'm sorry but you know better. Don't blame the models. you've been on this board for how long? how many times have you seen this play out? The fact that you went all in based on that crazy Euro run was ridiculous to begin with. I'm sorry brother but that's on you. Models spit out whatever is the flavor of the day. You gotta eat this one.

Honestly, it sucks being a debbie downer all the time but it's just my way of coping with how often we get screwed. and it helps..That way anything more is just gravy. But i will offer some words of encouragement. Some of the best storms we've seen im the south have been overperformers and last minute surprises. It's rare that a big storm down here is forecasted in advance with certainty. It's always a dance until the last minute. And this storm has all the characteristics of a storm that can easily overperform. so it ain't over till it's over. Just don't expect it. Always be measured in your expectations. I do like that almost everyone is getting in on some action this winter. Better than years past. Good luck to all

where would this CMC upset rank among modeling upsets? might be top 5. There's a NAM upset from a storm i remember that shook up the met community that's probably top

The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models. So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted. Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense.

The stove is hot and always burns but for some reason..people keep touching it

I'm convinced alot of posters here enjoy purposely making themselves suffer. I suggest reading Coldrain's "what have we learned" Essay after that epic bust a few years ago. Remember it, learn it, live it. You'll be happier.

Brick..don't do this to yourself

i would trade no snow for the next 5 winters for this to verify. historic

That sign has so many possibilities..with a little imagination

tbh this is matching up with what i'm seeing on radar..can't get too excited though

Flakes falling in apex. Nice band rolling through the triangle

Is anything coming down in charlotte?

RAH is dropping the ball on this one..that's a huge difference with massive impacts. IDK what model guidance they were looking at

Looking at the radar..this thing will hit the triangle about an hour and a half earlier than most forecasters were predicting.

you're not crazy. But i've seen this movie before and i have trained myself to be skeptical. But it feels like central NC is due for some good luck. We'll be too close to the rain/snow line just to the south, which means some mixing will cut down on totals. Someone might cash in on some heavier overrunning bands

Model hugs to rile up his followers, then complains when trends go bad or the event flops.

trying to make it to and from work when it rains around here is already an adventure in itself. You don't want to be out and about when it starts coming down. Close the schools, send the kids home by 12pm.

time to put a fork in this one. There are signs of an early february torch to be excited about

My friend..this is a tale as old as time. i'll give you some advice. Always remember that storms will always trend towards a drier, warmer, or northern solution. Those are the default settings. Us folks in the south need to go 3 for 3. Always an uphill battle. Lower your expectations.

lol.

we really only have a 1 month window of prime climo to score on anything good. Outside of that, chances drop significantly. 4 weeks. Depressing when you think of it like that. Any good runs outside of a week is basically noise to me now. i too was once a bright eyed weenie who lived and died by every model run. Always temper your excitement when you live south of VA. or you will be close to tears when the inevitable february torch hits