wxdawg10

no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend

that will never happen again. modeling gets better every year. Sure there will always be some surprises and you might get some under modeled snow fall. but nothing to the level of what happened in 2000. Technology is too good for that.

all time flame out..atleast you all got to see it crash and burn the day before so can cry away the sadness. i remember 8 inch storms that turned out to be a dusting to cold rain the day of! that's what radicalized me. lol !

i do hope some of our GA and coastal NC folks cash in. They've had it worse than even some of us.

i see alot of cliff diving..well i've been down here for awhile would like to extend a net for those who want it

RAH never bit on this storm either. Also credit to Brad P, he was never sold on the NW trend and people were fighting him on twitter about it. Times like these make you realize why they are pro and we are amateurs.

The all mighty "king" Euro bows down and caves in spectacular fashion to the GFS..the real king? knew it was over when people started model hugging the CMC as the great beacon of hope. oh well.

lol. the only person the models fooled was you. everyone else here was cautious. i hope you remember all this next time a storm is modeled. for your own good. You live in NC. this is what happens. accept it.

Brick. I'm sorry but you know better. Don't blame the models. you've been on this board for how long? how many times have you seen this play out? The fact that you went all in based on that crazy Euro run was ridiculous to begin with. I'm sorry brother but that's on you. Models spit out whatever is the flavor of the day. You gotta eat this one.

Honestly, it sucks being a debbie downer all the time but it's just my way of coping with how often we get screwed. and it helps..That way anything more is just gravy. But i will offer some words of encouragement. Some of the best storms we've seen im the south have been overperformers and last minute surprises. It's rare that a big storm down here is forecasted in advance with certainty. It's always a dance until the last minute. And this storm has all the characteristics of a storm that can easily overperform. so it ain't over till it's over. Just don't expect it. Always be measured in your expectations. I do like that almost everyone is getting in on some action this winter. Better than years past. Good luck to all

where would this CMC upset rank among modeling upsets? might be top 5. There's a NAM upset from a storm i remember that shook up the met community that's probably top

The GFS is a great model..but also an excellent troll. It's been complete garbage on so many storms. Yet It's got the most wins against the Euro compared to all the other models. So even when it's the outlier..it can never be discounted. Everyone is forced to nervously hang on to every run with bated breaths. quite hilarious in a twisted cosmic sense.

The stove is hot and always burns but for some reason..people keep touching it

I'm convinced alot of posters here enjoy purposely making themselves suffer. I suggest reading Coldrain's "what have we learned" Essay after that epic bust a few years ago. Remember it, learn it, live it. You'll be happier.

Brick..don't do this to yourself

i would trade no snow for the next 5 winters for this to verify. historic

That sign has so many possibilities..with a little imagination

tbh this is matching up with what i'm seeing on radar..can't get too excited though

Flakes falling in apex. Nice band rolling through the triangle

Is anything coming down in charlotte?

RAH is dropping the ball on this one..that's a huge difference with massive impacts. IDK what model guidance they were looking at

Looking at the radar..this thing will hit the triangle about an hour and a half earlier than most forecasters were predicting.

you're not crazy. But i've seen this movie before and i have trained myself to be skeptical. But it feels like central NC is due for some good luck. We'll be too close to the rain/snow line just to the south, which means some mixing will cut down on totals. Someone might cash in on some heavier overrunning bands

Model hugs to rile up his followers, then complains when trends go bad or the event flops.