wxdawg10

there's a pocket of precip that just developed over wake county lol. snowing around eastern wake county

NE NC might see a foot. big winners

Precip is juicing up around the triangle..earlier than modeled. radar is starting to blossom

Flurries in durham around miami blvd

is this real? my god..

By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up.

This signal has been there for about a week and no matter the fluctuations, every model keeps either hinting or coming back to something big. This is different from our usual storms where everything fizzles out accross the board with zero hope.

Whoever escapes the warm nose will be the big winners. the warm nose in the carolina is equivalent to a stronger version of thanos with the gauntlet

Another problem, is some mets obsession with "getting it right" it becomes a competiton. Which leads to some wild forecasts and unecessary risks. We all love snow, but lets be real, the best mets always preach caution and are conservative by nature to varying degrees. If a storm is difficult to forecast, they communicate it. An Honest met is often well respected. even when they get it wrong. Then there are the engagement farmers. They post fantasy runs 5 days out with a throw away disclaimer so they can say "see, you guys are the ones who overreacted, i just showed what MIGHT happen"

The levels of meltdown from Northeast weenies on social media the past 2 days has been insane.

This is incorrect.

This is a very tough forecast for all mets. So let's not do the blame game. As with any difficult forecast, you always go conservative. If you're bullish and you miss, that can be credibility damaging. makes sense to me. it's a mindset i think everyone here needs to have.

man..who died in here?

This shouldn't surprise anyone. That's how it goes. Always temper your expectations no matter what the models show. Our friends in the Northeast experienced the exact same thing with this storm. and we down here..know that story all too well. With that said, lets see how the trends go tomorrow before the cliff diving begins. This does seem like an extreme solution. and this is coming from an expert cliff diver

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1881781215746785475?t=KPHMcBT6ucU6VPLk8MlbEw&s=09 Brad P says..huh what trends?

https://x.com/NWSRaleigh/status/1881756564039852311?t=KtlENN7_1NFYfYL-8zy1Ig&s=19 warnings extended west

They have PTSD from getting burned by past storms for being bullish. They wont pull the trigger until the last minute

WRAL gets a lot of blame for this storm..but were there any other outlets locally or nationally calling for more than a couple of inches around central NC? i don't remember. if so then i think WRAL can be let off the hook a bit due to a collective meteorological screw up

Always go for the latter. a pleasant surprise is better than constant disappointment.

sad.

no not really..NWS is very comfortable with what they already put out. I know you're trying to hold on to hope but this one is over my friend

that will never happen again. modeling gets better every year. Sure there will always be some surprises and you might get some under modeled snow fall. but nothing to the level of what happened in 2000. Technology is too good for that.

all time flame out..atleast you all got to see it crash and burn the day before so can cry away the sadness. i remember 8 inch storms that turned out to be a dusting to cold rain the day of! that's what radicalized me. lol !

i do hope some of our GA and coastal NC folks cash in. They've had it worse than even some of us.

i see alot of cliff diving..well i've been down here for awhile would like to extend a net for those who want it