wxdawg10

there's a pocket of precip that just developed over wake county lol. snowing around eastern wake county

NE NC might see a foot. big winners

Precip is juicing up around the triangle..earlier than modeled. radar is starting to blossom

Flurries in durham around miami blvd

is this real? my god..

By that same logic, Mets should have gone all in when every model was showing a historic blizzard a week ago? see how that works? Model data is not absolute. Common sense exists in forecasting too. Something models don't have. so yes, the warmnose always over performs in this set up.

This signal has been there for about a week and no matter the fluctuations, every model keeps either hinting or coming back to something big. This is different from our usual storms where everything fizzles out accross the board with zero hope.

Whoever escapes the warm nose will be the big winners. the warm nose in the carolina is equivalent to a stronger version of thanos with the gauntlet

Another problem, is some mets obsession with "getting it right" it becomes a competiton. Which leads to some wild forecasts and unecessary risks. We all love snow, but lets be real, the best mets always preach caution and are conservative by nature to varying degrees. If a storm is difficult to forecast, they communicate it. An Honest met is often well respected. even when they get it wrong. Then there are the engagement farmers. They post fantasy runs 5 days out with a throw away disclaimer so they can say "see, you guys are the ones who overreacted, i just showed what MIGHT happen"

The levels of meltdown from Northeast weenies on social media the past 2 days has been insane.

This is incorrect.

This is a very tough forecast for all mets. So let's not do the blame game. As with any difficult forecast, you always go conservative. If you're bullish and you miss, that can be credibility damaging. makes sense to me. it's a mindset i think everyone here needs to have.

man..who died in here?

This shouldn't surprise anyone. That's how it goes. Always temper your expectations no matter what the models show. Our friends in the Northeast experienced the exact same thing with this storm. and we down here..know that story all too well. With that said, lets see how the trends go tomorrow before the cliff diving begins. This does seem like an extreme solution. and this is coming from an expert cliff diver

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1881781215746785475?t=KPHMcBT6ucU6VPLk8MlbEw&s=09 Brad P says..huh what trends?