high risk
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Everything posted by high risk
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yeah, I could have clarified, although the NAM3 only goes to f60...... But while Friday does have some potential, I am talking about today.
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I had been "way out" on this event, but the 12z NAM3 is making me reconsider, with some impressive signatures much further north than in previous runs along with greater instability and a shear profile that is lacking in low-level shear but would have decent deep-layer shear with a modest increase in sfc winds. This solution is an outlier for now, but I'll be curious to see whether the HRRR trends in its direction.
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except the the guidance has repeatedly indicated that the primary warm layer will be around 800 mb
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Disagree with all the people complaining about 1-8" ranges and boom/bust ideas needing to be tossed. Forecasting snow amounts isn't a contest. It's communicating the most likely outcomes along with the range of possibilities to account for model errors, localized bands, and such so that people who may need to travel or decide whether to close a business or school can assess the level of risk and their tolerance of it and make informed choices.
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I realize that the 12z parent NAM got everyone's attention, but it's a common rule that when the NAM parent and nest differ significantly, and the nest is line with other guidance, it shouldn't take anyone more than a half second to toss the parent NAM solution.
