high risk

With radar showing a lot of activity forming over WV, indicative of strong forcing that will overspread our area over the next few hours, the scenario of multiple rounds certainly seems plausible.

Look at the 17z HRRR, and then wipe your drool off of the screen.

The main system over PA definitely has limited south movement, but several CAMS show development in MD occurring either 1) due to outflow from that complex coming south or 2) on its own.

not much to add. The CAMs really ramped up this morning

hard to argue with this right now. interesting that it's the opposite of what the earlier CAMs showed (and had SPC focus the ENH east of 270.....)

time-lagged HRRR output is your friend.

C'mon now, you know that SPC's forecasts aren't just made on model simulated forecasts. Yeah, verbatim the reflectivity signals aren't massive, as I would expect the model updrafts to struggle a bit with the lower level dry air. But with the models showing an organized line segment moving into an environment with ample instability and large downdraft cape, I would say that the ENH is absolutely warranted.

Yeah, that's an interesting ongoing event for sure. I was wondering if that might help or screw things up later, but the 14z HRRR has a modest handle on the ongoing activity and still cranks up the later show.

Yeah, those soundings really support strong downdraft potential IF storms can organize, consistent with the SPC outlook.

The CAMs tend to not produce a lot of storms here in downsloping.... they're often underdone but on the general right track. The 12z NAM nest solution is kinda scary verbatim for the DC-Baltimore corridor. If a line can really get organized, the potential for widespread damaging winds is very real. But it's a definite "IF".

Very active period coming up for the mid-Atlantic and northeast, as noted in the previous posts. The soundings for today certainly do look great (per CAPE's post), but as noted by SPC, storm coverage is a question. All of that westerly low-level flow and low-level dry air due to the downsloping makes for amazing DCAPE but also makes storm maintenance tougher. A few recent HRRR runs actually have a convective MIN in the DC-Baltimore corridor, for what that's worth. Tomorrow looks like poor timing for us. I wouldn't rule out Thursday, as even though the bigger show will be well to our north, there is really good flow and hard-to-time shortwaves. Was a bit surprised to see a Saturday outlook - the upper trough looks sweet, but I've been under the impression that clouds and rain from the remnants of Laura will keep our instability low. Fun tracking for sure!

SPC Day 2 now has has the DC-Baltimore corridor included within an ENH.

I still like a number of things about tomorrow, although downsloping always complicates an event like this. The nice shortwave and moderate downdraft cape certainly suggest a wind threat for any storms that do make it into our area. Wednesday has even better wind fields, but right now, the shortwaves don't time well for us - that could change......

I'm definitely on board with the SPC day 4 outlook. Even though the best dynamics will be northeast of here, it looks like we'll have good lapse rates with moderate instability, some downdraft cape, decent flow aloft, and height falls with a well-timed short wave. Definitely a wind damage threat for DC metro and points north and northeast if the current models solutions hold.

That storm here in southern Howard was far more impressive than I was expecting. No thunder, but the rain was torrential, and winds gusted over 35 kt for sure.

most guidance has a decent (albeit slightly broken) line moving through during the dinner hour, but yeah, soundings are not very impressive. That said, if the storms really do organize and form a cold pool, a few decent gusts are not out of the question (consistent with the SPC MRGL).

I can report that over here in Howard County, we don't have as high of reflectivity values as over Montgomery, and it's still absolutely pouring

while we're clearly not going to get the Sunday soaking that some of the guidance had been advertising, I think it's going a bit far to suggest a sunny afternoon. Most of the forecast soundings and simulated satellite products I've seen have clouds (and perhaps some light rain or drizzle) persisting well into the afternoon. But I certainly hope I'm being too pessimistic.....

https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov It's a hi-res ensemble, effectively run on-demand. You select a regional domain of interest and initialize it with new assimilation techniques to try to get the best initial conditions (environmental parameters and ongoing precipitation). The longer term goal is to have a system like this be good enough so that warnings can actually be issued by forecasts from the WoF instead of having to wait for radar signatures or ground truth.

Probably not Thursday and Friday. Still potential for huge soakers, but the weaker steering currents argue against widespread coverage. The weekend could be a different story, with a very favorable upper pattern and tropical moisture still in place.

Definitely. The ground is already very wet in parts of the area, there could be more storms later tonight, storm chances are good tomorrow and maybe Friday, and we then have to deal with the weekend.

I would say that it does, although I would not be surprised is there is some very weak rotation on the cells tonight, as there is some very modest curvature in the hodographs tonight.

overnight convection? the CAMs say maybe; the radar is really lighting up to our southwest

the PWs are really impressive, and earlier HRRR runs looked wet and suggested backbuilding, but that model has really backed off now.

certainly some chance of SVR this evening and later tomorrow, but I'm really starting to like the look for late Monday. NAM nest has an impressive connective signature in an environment with some shear. My biggest concern, though, is that the model looks slow with Isaias, so we could have a much wetter environment Monday than progged (and more of a flash flood thread than a SVR threat)