high risk

Any chance you looked at the max by accident? That image matches your description. The mean isn't that aggressive for DC and areas right along I-95:

I'm in on SVR. I'm not in on widespread flooding rains until you get further north and northwest, although there will be isolated local flooding where recent heavy rains have occurred. Right now, guidance shows most of Wednesday being dry which will allow for some heating for sure. We then get some bands of convection arrive later in the day, with perhaps some moderate instability and likely strengthening low-level wind fields. If some of the more aggressive guidance is correct, these won't be little spin-ups in a big shield of rain; these will be legitimate supercells embedded in intense convective bands. This UH image from the 12z HRRR would warrant a potential ENH for tornadoes: There are plenty of ways that this could fail, and we often fail here, but this setup has *potential* to be a big deal if we legitimately heat up tomorrow. As for the rain, there could be some sneaky higher totals tonight, and those bands tomorrow evening will have torrential rainfall, but the heaviest rain will overall be too progressive, and the periods of intense rain will overall be relatively short-lived until you go further north.

I'm quite intrigued as well. The track to our northwest would allow for some heating before the main convective band arrives later in the day.

Increasing signal in the guidance this morning for widespread showers and storms this afternoon for those east of the Potomac, especially for northern/northeast MD. Models have had limited handle on the precip so far (to be kind), so I'm not totally sure how much I buy it, although radar seems to suggest that this scenario is plausible.

one last tornado warning on the MD/PA border, near @mappy

A few cells popping up in western Montgomery and near Culpepper. HRRR shows a strong line (or line with embedded supercells?) moving through DC and points north after dinner time.

The box is going to be justified, but in terms of tornado threat across MD, the earlier arrival of storms may limit that potential a bit, as the best low-level shear won't arrive until later in the afternoon.

Yeah, but those HRRR low dew points that we usually see are due to mixing, and even the HRRR can't overmix a tropical air mass like this.

NAM Nest seems to be an outlier with its very sparse coverage of cells this afternoon.

Oddly, the 00z NAM nest had better parameters but fewer storms than shown in previous runs. HRRR and HiRes Window ARW still look impressive.

They stuck w the MRGL.....

Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes. I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either.

Is it really a "surprise" when the models show discrete rotating cells 2 days in advance, and SPC puts us in an initial Day 2 MRGL with potential for a later upgrade?

Agreed, but really hoping that area to the southwest doesn't pivot hard to the northeast. Even with a lull, it would get really bad if that moves over the areas that have already been drowned this evening.

Still very intrigued by Wednesday. Still some fail scenarios: best storms stay north in PA, best wind fields are further west, instability is lacking..... but some of the CAM solutions are quite good in terms of discrete cells and show some impressive low-level shear.

I was just coming in to post the same thing. The NAM/NAM3 and extrapolated HRRR and some of the HiResWindows look very interesting for Wednesday. Hodographs look impressive, and this certainly gets our attention:

Very concerned about the areas that got crushed last night for the week ahead. Multiple chances for more large rain totals this week, perhaps as soon as very late tonight.

I don't know what to think about the overnight. Several of the 00z CAMs bring some heavy rain up through DC and even to those of us further north, but I'm not sure if they really have a handle on everything. Perhaps they're misplacing the ongoing convection too far north? That said, the outflow surging north out of southern MD makes me think that things could erupt further north in the next couple of hours.

Tuesday and Wednesday each yielded a surprisingly high number of SVR reports in this area. There were certainly a couple of particularly notable cells with higher-end swaths of damage, but the coverage of reports was still impressive. But I agree that high CAPE and moderate DCAPE are more than compensating for very weak shear. I'd certainly be surprised if we didn't get at least one round of TC remnants up this way in the next 6-8 weeks.

It's probably just my fading memory, but I can't recall such an extremely active week like this with so little shear.

It's up around 900 or so. Was it that much higher on previous days? Regardless, that's enough today to still have downburst issues, especially given the high CAPE.

I'm expecting something similar to Wednesday, as have a similar combination of high CAPE and fairly high downdraft CAPE but no shear. Storms will pulse, and there will be some impressive wind events, but it shouldn't be anything too organized.

Heavy shower has strengthened into a thunderstorm now as it moved to my east. Moderate rain and distant thunder here. Seems to be a developing signal for some stronger winds as the cell moves across Anne Arundel county.

Winds definitely hit severe criteria in southern Howard County. Wow. Power went off but has thankfully returned.

That's a nasty wind signal over Silver Spring now. Hearing that it was pretty bad as it passed through Bethesda.