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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Still looks like that the best chance of widespread rain for those of us on the eastern side of DC is later tonight through midday Thursday. That said, I don't like that the 18Z NAM Nest moved the axis of heaviest rain closer to the Bay.
  2. high risk
    The wind signal on that storm is definitely vicious.
  3. high risk
    I still like the SVR threat generally being confined to areas west of an axis that bisects DC, although it looks like it could spill eastward by a county. I do feel better, however, about chances for heavier rain for those of us on the east side of town. The heaviest rain in the late afternoon will be west of DC, but there seems to be agreement on a lot of showers on the east side of town overnight through Thursday morning.
  4. high risk
    Agreed. Looking at the various CAMs, there isn't going to be very much CAPE available on the east side of the Potomac. The best SVR risk is likely to be west of DC.
  5. high risk
    I'm assuming that's with the strong front that looks to roll through next Monday? The frontal timing looks off so far, but we obviously have 7 days to slow it down......
  6. high risk
    Definitely. They're fighting the dry air from downscoping, and frontal convergence is weak, but there is likely just enough forcing along the front to get these isolated small showers. The main show is further south, where the long-lived MCS is moving into central/southern VA.
  7. high risk
    Just got an isolated, brief, unexpected downpour in southern Howard County.
  8. high risk
    I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this. The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.
  9. high risk
    Definitely electrified anvil activity. You can see very slight reflectivity in the areas where the strikes occurred.
  10. high risk
    Same here - just down the road. Several lightning strikes way, way removed from the rain.
  11. high risk
    There is discussion about this in the Severe thread. CAPE is much lower east of the Potomac, and storms are not surviving as they approach the river. They're turning to ride the instability gradient a bit.
  12. high risk
    Yes. Saw the lightning, followed by loud thunder. Was not expecting that.
  13. high risk
    Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.
  14. high risk
    Northwest PA, but it's worth noting that the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs don't like our chances.
  15. high risk
    Yep, all the way to midnight, to account for both the ongoing activity and a possible line dropping south out of PA after dark.
  16. high risk
    This weekend air mass is going to be incredible. Multiple models show us barely hitting the low 70s Saturday, with a stiff breeze blowing. May not be a whole lot warmer than that on Sunday.
  17. high risk
    So weird. The HRRR never liked the idea of a line dropping out of PA, but it did generate cells locally. It's not easy to spot notable differences in the thermodynamic environment in the model between the "good" runs and "bad" runs.
  18. high risk
    Seems to be 2 scenarios: 1) Supercells form in western PA this afternoon, and a QLCS emerges and drops southeast into our area (6Z NAM Nest and 12Z ARW2). Shear is better to our west and northwest where a greater TOR threat would exist. We'd locally have a shot at damaging winds, although the system might be weakening 2) The PA storms never really get rolling, but some scattered storms develop locally late this afternoon, with some wind threat (12Z HRRR). Of course, both scenarios for us are dependent upon clearing out the morning clouds.
  19. high risk
    Very consistent signal in model runs late this afternoon and early evening. The SVR potential seems to be low, but I'd be fine with some heavy rain and noise.
  20. high risk
    On a separate note, I'm struggling to figure out why the SLGT today continues to include the DC-Baltimore region, with MRGL up into southern PA. I would have expected that northern/northeastern edge to be moved back to the southwest on the 1630 outlook.
  21. high risk
    Agreed. Peak climo here for higher-end severe in my mind is roughly May 15 - June 20 or so, but I won't argue with you wanting to extend that out a bit further. As you noted, a strong system in July/August can still get the job done, but they're tougher to come by.
  22. high risk
    You're spot on about the instability, which was always a question for this event, as it should be for something arriving here in the early morning hours. In terms of warm-season early morning convection, I can only remember a couple of legit severe events here in 20+ years. I disagree a little bit about the consistency of the model solutions. Yes, most guidance advertised an MCC rolling through the Mid-Atlantic, but the location and details were extremely inconsistent, even hour-to-hour in the HRRR. The problem was that multiple storm complexes formed to our west and northwest yesterday and yesterday evening, and the models couldn't agree on which one would be the show here. Lots of people got super excited about the organized complex in eastern OH yesterday evening, but the models that drove a big complex through here were actually developing it from a different batch of storms in Michigan. They never handled the Ohio feature well, and I lost confidence in the setup for us as a result. I think that while the thin line that rolled through the northern areas this morning came out of that OH feature, that messed up the feature behind it, as the Michigan storms tracked more south along an instability gradient that was likely altered by the Ohio storms. Regardless, you're completely correct that MCS activity is never a sure thing.
  23. high risk
    I throw my hands in the air on this one. The CAMs that bring an organized MCS through here tomorrow morning generate that system out of the storms currently in western Michigan. But they don't have a good handle on the ongoing storms in northwest Ohio. Could the Ohio storms end up being the show here in the Mid-Atlantic? This is so complicated, and the outcome here is dependent upon the exact evolution upstream - this explains why the HRRR keeps bouncing around hour to hour.
  24. high risk
    The HREF products reflect the idea among the CAMs that the chances for what's left of the MCS to bring strong winds down to the surface is fairly low (but not zero).
  25. high risk
    I do love how the Day 2 Outlook discussed a "weakened carcass of an MCS". That said, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how and where this MCS will evolve overnight. I'm still not overly worried at this time about widespread wind potential into the metro areas, given the poor timing and lack of instability, but these systems can certainly surprise if they develop a sufficiently strong cold pool.
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