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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Yes, but it's progged to split and then shear out a lot tomorrow as it comes east. Instability will be good, and there may be just enough shear for a few organized cells with some wind potential, but it sure doesn't look like a big day. Hell, I'm thrilled just to have a threat of convection again.
  2. high risk
    classic playbook here: MCS dies on approach in the early morning hours but limits heating for the late afternoon show
  3. high risk
    That's for the afternoon cells. The morning MCS would be "regular" thunderstorms, but I hope it plays out. It's going to be an MCS party for the next 36 hours in the Mid-Atlantic - just a question of who gets invited.
  4. high risk
    The flood watch was absolutely justified, but due to the PWATS and existing wet ground. The storm motions off of the 12Z IAD raob were faster than 30 mph. The severe box was less justified. It verified well due to a bunch of reports at the far southern end, but most of the box was lacking in reports.
  5. high risk
    I'm not sure that it's that sneaky if it's covered by an SPC 5% TOR risk. But yes, the shear is good and getting stronger, and forcing is arriving. The only question is whether the storms can root into the boundary layer. I'd say that's quite uncertain.
  6. high risk
    The question is does the instability get swept off to the east by the approaching cold front before storms can initiate. The evening guidance now seems to be in fairly good agreement that storms will initiate along and maybe even slightly west of the 95 corridor by early afternoon. Even though the best chance of organized severe will be further east (and I'm talking DC, as northeast MD is in a good spot), the shear along the I-95 corridor might support splitting supercells.
  7. high risk
    Agreed. And it should be rotating - the wind profiles definitely favor rotation, and the profiles are stronger to the east and northeast of those cells. I just wonder if it's rooted above the boundary layer. Would not be surprised if an MD came out for northern MD / southern PA at some point in the next couple of hours.
  8. high risk
    The HRRR has been pretty consistent keeping the overnight activity north of the DC area, and storms are starting to fire now in northeastern WV. The shear tonight supports a tornado threat; it's just unclear whether the storms will be surface-based.
  9. high risk
    There will be no upgrades to the HRRR since it's slated for retirement.
  10. high risk
    That's mostly how I see it too. I'll disagree on round 1 being "weak" - the HRRR simulated reflectivities are fine; isolated SVR seems likely, but I question the TOR threat with the weaker low-level winds. Shear cranks up after dark, but we'll be fighting decreasing instability. To me, the biggest potential overlap between increasing shear and still-sufficient sfc-based instability will be northwest of the DC area.
  11. high risk
    Looking at the 00Z CAMs, I'd put the Monday TOR threat as an SPC 2% area instead of 5 for the local area due to weak low-level winds and limited storm coverage. The bigger TOR threat might be western MD and adjacent parts of WV/PA in the early evening. There are also some timing differences for Tuesday. HRRR would require that the SLGT area be extended back west of DC, but it seems like an outlier for now.
  12. high risk
    The 5% makes sense, given the southeasterly low-level winds progged by all guidance. What's keeping us from a higher threat is fairly weak surface wind speeds as well as lower speeds in the 900-700 mb level. If the low-level wind fields end up stronger, we would have more significant TOR potential.
  13. high risk
    I'm out of town tomorrow, so LOCK IT IN.
  14. high risk
    The previous dozen posts discussing the higher end potential for tomorrow aren't enough for you?
  15. high risk
    I'm still thinking SLGT for tomorrow for areas west and southwest of DC with the MRGL expanded into the DC-Baltimore corridor. Maybe we end up SLGT, but instability looks very limited. There might be more of a flash flood threat, although the dry week we just had might preclude that. I'm fully expecting a Day 2 ENH for Monday. I think that there is enough in the CAMs to pull the trigger.
  16. high risk
    It's partially driven by huge CAPE numbers which are being caused by the usual NAM bias of having dew points that are too high. That said, the shear will be good, and it will still be a very volatile environment on Monday.
  17. high risk
    Sunday is challenged by very limited instability. But if we can get more unstable than currently progged, any storm that interacts with the boundary to the southwest could spin for a bit. I like the chances of evening convection moving southwest to northeast, but we have work to do to have it be severe.
  18. high risk
    Looking at the morning CAMs, looks good for widespread Sunday evening convection. Low-level shear is interesting near the warm front, so the potential is there for a few spin-ups, but lack of instability and lack of discrete cells should temper the threat (maybe higher south and west of DC). Monday has good potential to be an ENH day.
  19. high risk
    Yes, but they usually don't throw those terms around beyond day 2. Their usage of that wording reflects that the progged shear and especially the low-level shear Monday have been progged to be seasonably strong. I personally don't like them discussing tornado threats at this range, but I do understand what they're seeing.
  20. high risk
    I haven't been a big fan of today's potential, because while there is some decent flow in the upper levels, the shear through the majority of the cloud layer sucks. That said, as others have pointed out, there is modest CAPE and decent downdraft CAPE, so there is *some* potential. IF the HRRR idea of an organized line with a coldpool is correct, the threat might be a bit higher than thought:
  21. high risk
    Finally seem to be getting consensus now on a single line impacting much of the area, or at least from Alexandria or so northward. Looks like an early show, with the line initiating near the I-81 corridor by late morning and rolling into the DC metro area sometime between 1 and 3pm. The lack of lead convection increases the severe threat, and there is probably enough deep layer shear to justify the SLGT risk, although the lack of shear in the sfc-4 km depth might temper the threat a bit. With only one round of convection, and it progged to be progressive, the flash flood threat is a bit lower than initially thought. That said, 2" PW values will create torrential downpours, and the areas that are soggy from the past few days will likely have problems.
  22. high risk
    I completely understand the lack of trust in the guidance, given the past few days, but the HRRR wants to light up the DC-Baltimore corridor between 5PM and 10PM in the last two cycles.
  23. high risk
    As you and I both noted earlier, the morning CAMs had the current cells coming off of the mountains and evolving into the show. But the new HRRR doesn't do much with them and instead initiates the show later. Certainly seems plausible with the current cells struggling.
  24. high risk
    Would expect an MD within the next hour as that convection approaches the better environment. The CAMs all turn that into either the show or part one of the show.
  25. high risk
    12Z FV3 looks better, at least for the north side of DC. All of the CAMs look good for *some* coverage of storms, although there will be winners and losers for sure. And the area of highest potential is still all over the map. It's worth noting that several other CAMs have joined the NAM Nest with a weak surface low forming, which creates a mesoscale corridor of good wind profiles, and there are now modest to impressive single UH tracks in several solutions. Of course, need to get these damn clouds and morning showers out of here......
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