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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    The way that the HRRR mixes out the low-level moisture this afternoon makes it impossible for that model to generate any substantial convection. What alarms me now is that most of the other CAMs made a big jump this morning to mix a lot more strongly. They're overall not to HRRR levels, but it's significant, and their simulated reflectivities look really discouraging. The 12Z IAD raob has a LOT of dry air just above the boundary layer, way more than progged in recent days. So the idea of mixing leading to low-level drying may very well be legitimate. Let's watch the evolution of surface dew points over the next few hours and wait for the 18Z raob.
  2. high risk
    But this isn't a standard summer day where thunderstorms will form, and couple of them might put out a couple of localized downbursts as they collapse. We have an unseasonably strong upper trough arriving from the west and potentially better mid-level lapse rates than we commonly see here. There are still fail scenarios, but there is absolutely higher-end potential today, even if we don't attain it. That said, the communication from the media has been all about the high-end scenario and not the fail scenario, and it's going to be unfortunate if a lower-end scenario verifies. I have no idea how they can appropriately cover the two scenarios without confusing a lot of people, especially when they only have time for a quick soundbite.
  3. high risk
    The good news is that it already looks better for northern areas just an hour later. Still plenty of fail modes today, but it's hard to take any HRRR solutions seriously, as I can't imagine how our dew points crash into the upper 50s / lower 60s on southerly winds.
  4. high risk
    If you look at the forecasts valid at 20Z, they align with the line forming out to the west, but the HRRR doesn't have the lead storms that the NAM Nest has. Probably not surprising, given the mixing out of the HRRR moisture.
  5. high risk
    Very impressive signal. It forms a discrete cell out ahead of the main line in the early-mid afternoon when surface winds will be somewhat more backed, leading to a shear profile that would actually support some healthy rotation. But this is somewhat of an outlier solution.
  6. high risk
    Monday obviously has the higher end potential, but it looks like all of the CAMs have widespread afternoon convection on Tuesday. If you toss the NAM Nest low 70s dew points, the CAPE is modest in most solutions, and shear is weak, but there is a healthy amount of downdraft CAPE. I would think that the outlook for Tuesday will expand the MRGL back to the west over more of the area.
  7. high risk
    not totally worthy of being mentioned in the severe thread, but for those of us who have been anxiously awaiting nocturnal convection, some of the CAMs say that at least several of us will be woken up later tonight by a round of storms. Radar is trying to light up a bit to our west.
  8. high risk
    Is this really underwhelming? Maybe for western OH, but......
  9. high risk
    12Z CAMs are all over the place. Summary: NAM Nest FV3 HRRR ARW2 (for Howard County: ) ARW
  10. high risk
    Yes, the NAM is typically too moist, but the HRRR absolutely overmixes.
  11. high risk
    Definitely an overall very interesting 00Z suite. While there are still some valid questions about debris from Sunday convection and how the Monday storms evolve. I would think that much of the area wakes up tomorrow in a Day 2 SLGT. edit: I totally missed SPC updating the Day 3 to put us in a SLGT, so this post was pretty useless. I guess it's possible that parts of the area could get a Day 2 ENH, but the question marks listed might preclude that for now.
  12. high risk
    I was surprised too. The 12z NAM Nest and HiResW FV3 definitely make the case for at least a SLGT. The CAPE is big-time Monday afternoon, timing of the forcing is ideal, and shear is decent, with even some modest low-level shear. Verbatim, the NAM Nest is a "south of I-70 show", while the FV3 lets northern areas get in on the show too.
  13. high risk
    The Dover radar has been very misleading for us, but the nice looking band over eastern Howard County now is producing moderate rain.
  14. high risk
    That's what I'm getting at. The shear appears so far that it will be sufficient for severe, but with some pretty impressive analogs being tossed around, I would expect to see some much higher values.
  15. high risk
    HRRR has been pretty consistent (with some support from other CAMs too) about some heavy showers mainly on the east side of the Potomac later tonight.
  16. high risk
    I had doubts about the timing of the system, but there seems to be some increasing agreement on better timing. The wind fields overall still don't look great, but it's impossible to ignore several impressive ingredients that may be in place.
  17. high risk
    Wednesday is the synoptic rain, but it looks to go more convective on Thursday and beyond. With PW values progged to exceed 2" for multiple days, it certainly seems like at least isolated instances of high QPF totals and flash flooding will occur, even if the areal-averaged QPF amounts don't suggest the threat.
  18. high risk
    Tomorrow is a low overcast, seasonably chilly day with steady rain arriving - there isn't even a hint of instabilty. Agree that convective chances increase Thursday and ramp up further Friday.
  19. high risk
    Tonight's GFS and CMC have it here now on Wednesday. Really hope this is legit.
  20. high risk
    The HRRR has been quite emphatic that this morning line would crap out as it arrived (with redevelopment to our east-northeast); it still really likes the idea of a more significant round 2 later this afternoon (although it verbatim screws the crew along I-70).
  21. high risk
    The question now is whether there is a modest line at the end of the "event" during the latter part of the rush hour. HRRR still says yes, but it's hard to have confidence in the idea.
  22. high risk
    That's not happening tomorrow, but I am hopeful of potentially 2 rounds of convection: one perhaps mid-morning or midday and another late. The 00Z WRF-ARW2 perhaps shows this idea the best. Unfortunately, there is enough "bad look" in some of the other CAMs to make me think that not everyone is going to cash in.
  23. high risk
    I totally hear you on this, but I think there are 2 different types of "speeding up" with convection here. There is the synoptic speed up, where the timing of the front and associated forcing end up arriving earlier, and things erupt on the other side of the Bay. Then there is the speed up of just the actual propagating convection itself - the front is handled well and all, but the line perhaps initiates slightly earlier than progged and then moves east faster.
  24. high risk
    The 100 PoP in my NWS point-n-click forecast for tomorrow is..... brave.
  25. high risk
    Day 3 MRGL is east of here, but the 12Z NAM Nest an HiResW FV3 have slower timing of the front, so convection is better timed for much more of the area. Lapse rates are iffy, but shear is workable. If this trend continues, Day 2 products issued tomorrow would move the MRGL back into our area. Let's get the timing first. Then we can work on upgrading the environment to make it to SLGT.
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