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high risk

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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. high risk
    Right. Parameters, especially the shear, are very favorable Thursday. But will there be a trigger? As you noted, the NAM says no, but the HiResW FV3 opens the door to at least a few cells in the Mid-Atlantic.
  2. high risk
    The QPF signals for that event are remarkable.
  3. high risk
    Looking at the morning guidance, there are some definite things to like for tomorrow: forcing arriving at at favorable time of day, good deep layer shear, a warm air mass. Instability wil, however, be a question mark due to modest moisture. The NAM Nest gets dew points into the low 60s which allows for ~1000 CAPE. That would easily support a severe threat. Other guidance has lower dew points, and the instability is lower, unless intense heating compensates. A SLGT is certainly justified; I can’t see an ENH into the DC area at this time unless there is high confidence in instability. I’m also not seeing a 5 TOR threat this far north unless something increases the progged low-level shear.
  4. high risk
    It bears watching for sure, but events here in the spring in which the orientation of the cold front is parallel to the steering flow tend to not work so well, as we get lots of clouds and multiple rounds of stabilizing showers.
  5. high risk
    Since it's quite severe-wise here, I recommend checking out the setup for Wednesday in the Pacific Northwest. Great shear with the intense approaching trough and surprising amounts of instability.
  6. high risk
    I know that this is somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but all 3 of those forecasts agree on a very cold air mass to our north and a very warm one to our south. They simply disagree on the location of the boundary. That's really not unusual in any way for a 7 day forecast in spring, even if the difference in sensible weather impacts is massive if you move from one side of the front to the other. And the disagreement is less if one examines the ensembles.
  7. high risk
    Yeah, very close call for southern and eastern Howard.
  8. high risk
    Hi-Res guidance in agreement that heavy showers move southwest to northeast across the east side of DC early this evening. Radar confirms this idea, with thunderstorms now over south-central VA.
  9. high risk
    Line filling in nicely now. Was not, however, expecting to be in an MPD..... The wording, though, clearly favors the Eastern Shore.
  10. high risk
    It has nicely cooled aloft. This is what I was suggesting earlier that there might be a window for a couple of hours past sunset with a severe threat, as mid-level cooling would compensate for surface cooling. Unfortunately, with the line (or whatever is left of it) not getting into the DC area for a few more hours, I'm just hoping for a rumble or two of thunder at this point.
  11. high risk
    Yeah, the initial convection moving up from the southwest really didn't have much of an impact. The line to our west will continue to move east, but we'll be dealing with surface cooling when it arrives. That said, there *may* be a window just after dark when cooling aloft compensates for the cooler surface and allow a severe threat to persist into the DC Metro area.
  12. high risk
    The NAM/NAM Nest solution is our path to severe. The HRRR is not. HRRR initiates convection in southern VA by early afternoon which moves NNE and maybe bring a SVR threat to southern MD and the eastern shore, but it screws most of the DC-Baltimore area on severe and rainfall by killing the line arriving from the west. The NAM idea is to have that initial round of convection be far less widespread and not interrupt the convection arriving from the west.
  13. high risk
    I don’t hate the end of the 12z NAM Nest run…I’ll say that.
  14. high risk
    Guidance seems to be converging on better timing for Sunday. Could still be an issue in which widespread clouds and multiple rounds of showers kill instability and any severe threat, but we're in the game for now.
  15. high risk
    Spot on. Forecasted highs for Thursday and Friday are way too warm.
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