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high risk

Meteorologist
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About high risk

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBWI
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    North Laurel, MD

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  1. HRRR has the center of the upper low arriving Thursday afternoon with scattered to numerous heavy showers. This sounding sure suggests that small hail or graupel would be possible in any of the stronger cores.
  2. Seems to be some growing consensus that there will be a significant east-west gradient of precip. Folks west of the Potomac are in way better shape than those of us on the east side,
  3. The real push of drier air isn't until Saturday morning. Models disagree about exactly how dry Thursday and Friday will be (some of the CAMs show a fair amount of low clouds, while the GFS is more optimistic. The weekend is then really good, although somewhat higher dew points return Sunday afternoon in advance of the next front. This front passes early Monday, and it's the real deal. 60s for Tuesday on most guidance with lows in the 40s.
  4. Convective elements should be rolling through the DC metro area early this evening. While surface-based instability should be negligible, the low-level shear will be very strong with impressive hodographs. I can't rule out a very brief spin-up, or at least a tornado warning or two necessitated by modest storm rotation, although the chances of reaching the ground are likely small unless the surfaced-based instability is slightly higher than progged.
  5. Simulated reflectivities Friday don't look particularly impressive, but we'll be in a high PW environment for a chunk of the day, so some over performing rainfall totals are certainly on the table.
  6. Exactly. Even when the HRRR initialized it well: It dramatically weakened within only one hour: When this happens, it's a clear indication that the forcing to drive the rain area is largely not being captured in the model. It has no reason to think that heavy, organized rain should be there, and it works to wipe it out.
  7. Definitely not handled well at all by the guidance. Closing in on 1” here.
  8. Already 1/3 of an inch here, and I haven't even gotten into the "good stuff" for more than a few minutes. This is not how convection usually behaves here after dark, but the shortwave looks great in the guidance. Should be some very impressive totals in north-central and northeast MD overnight.
  9. Heavy 11pm shower at my home. The main batch up in PA looks to be headed for northeast MD. We'll see if there is back building on the western flank as it comes south.
  10. The best shot at a soaking in the Baltimore area was always round 2, after midnight. Last several runs of the HRRR really like central and northeast MD.
  11. That’s my worry for sure, but we still have a shot at something from the evening batch.
  12. I'll say this: with that NAM3 focus of heaviest rain, there is some (but not complete) model agreement for northeast MD to get soaked early Sunday
  13. Seems to be some modest model agreement in a small MCS (or closer of cells) coming into the DC area in the very late afternoon or early evening hours. Perhaps less certainly for north-central Maryland. Second batch of showers, covering some part of the area, towards sunrise.
  14. Agreed. Looks more like a Saturday frontal band now, and while it does appear to have decent moisture and convergence, such that we might maximize its potential, it's not the overrunning soaker we wanted.
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