osfan24

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

We go through this every time with landfalling hurricanes... Where's my 140 mph winds!!?? Due to friction with the ground surface, surface wind speeds are significantly lower over land than over water. So unless someone is literally right on a wind-exposed beach, which is not advisable in a surge scenario, it is very unlikely to record a peak wind speed anywhere close to what would be observed on the open ocean.

I always wonder if there is a better way to communicate this to the public in terms of what category or wind speed they say a certain tropical system is as it comes ashore.

8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

HWRF has Helene getting to 918 mb

LOL. Also gives it a head start with a 971 mb reading at 1 pm. It's almost 2 pm and it's almost 10 mb higher than that.

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Only about 0.15” so far

Yeah, nothing here really at all yet but it looks like a little batch of moderate rain should move in overhead. I did some seeding a couple of days ago hoping between this rain, some watering and hopefully some hurricane remnants over the next few weeks, I can get some grass to grow.

1 hour ago, flsch22 said:

what a joke of a flood watch issued yesterday by LWX.  .30 " for the weekend.  never any doubt this would underperform, par for the summer. 

Huh? There were flooding issues yesterday in some spots. I'm not sure you understand how a Flood Watch works.

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That firehose is going to miss me to the west

I'm on the very far eastern edge. Most of it will miss me by like a couple miles.

HRRR for the win again.

11 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Just got home from Canada. Yard is noticeably browner.

I actually got hit good with that heavy blob last night and ended up with 1.25” yesterday.

Coming down right now. Maybe I’ll get a half inch or so out of this batch.

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So I was right? That big slug was false hope?

Seems like it. When the big slug this morning was a fail, I figured the slug for this evening would probably go the same route.

13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So how long until there’s a rainfall futility or an “is it ever going to rain again” thread?

It will rain a lot from December through March.

Well, it's raining. I guess that's something. But radar is really uninspiring at the moment. Not sure this is going to help the drought at all unless the radar starts blowing up. Looks to be actually drying up to me at the moment. Congrats Richmond and east.

Nothing here yet but looks like some rain incoming, though that stuff down in Richmond has really lightened up as it moved north.

The stuff down near Richmond is what I am watching. It seems to be advancing north.

10 hours ago, nj2va said:

So the early bust calls didn’t pan out?

Did for me. Woke up with almost nothing in the rain gauge. Not good.

28 minutes ago, high risk said:

KDCA dew point is still 68, but KBWI and KIAD have dropped into the low 60s

Yeah, it does not feel that uncomfortable out right now at all.

Latest NAM is slightly more interesting. HRRR still not feeling it.

Latest NAM looks like a swing and a miss. HRRR about the same.

11 hours ago, toolsheds said:

Radar seems to be trying to pop something up now. 

Yeah, looks like it kinda ended up with the right idea. Just a little delayed.

Seems to me like the NAM was way overdone on the pop-up storms today whereas the HRRR wasn’t really buying it. Might be something to keep in mind for tomorrow.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM is a disaster 

Beat me to it. It's a swing and a miss.

More rain today than the entire week so far. A mist transitioned into a light, steady rain.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

What happened to the forecast decaying MCS overnight? Looks like sprinkles in VA and clear skies here.

Feels like models in general have played up the rain this week that hasn't happened. I wasn't expecting periods of rain but I haven't seen a drop.

17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a wake low spun through Baltimore through NE MD:

 

Check out the temp spike (Red Line), Wind gusts (blue lines), and pressure drop (black line), along with a brief spike in solar radiation from the clearing behind the low...probably from some brief subsidence.

 

I was wondering what happened. The rain was just about to pull out and suddenly it got very windy here. Did not see any trees down, but tons of small and medium sized branches everywhere.

LOL. Now we are.......two weeks away! And out to March 26!! If we just keep going long enough, we can get back to December!

2 hours ago, Ji said:

im only looking at the March 18-21 window....after that---the pattern change to cold looks-----no so cold anymore lol

Shocking development.