osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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Need the radar to blow up soon. Been flurrying here for a couple hours now but melting is commencing as sun starts fighting through and temps climb.
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All short range guidance seems to agree on another 2-4 inches around and east of 95.
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Ha, latest SREF has another half foot for BWI. The mean for BWI in its last run last night was also 12 inches so it's sticking to it's original forecast.
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Short-range models seem to give us another 2 to maybe 4 inches, but there is more than that shown just to our east in Anne Arundel. Also ratio dependent as well.
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That's what I was thinking as well. Just give me another 10 hours or so of this and I'll take my 10 inches and be happy.
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Really nice, steady snow falling here right now. Got close to 5 on the ground. Guessing I can make a run at 8 or so depending on the ULL later. Won't likely be me, but I'm guessing someone hits double digits and maybe even tops a foot.
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I know it’s not the most accurate, but Fox 45 just showed their futurecast and it had snow from over both immediate metro areas through at least midnight, which is the last hour they showed.
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Weird how it snows forever on all of the NAMs, especially 12k and 3k, and the totals are relatively pedestrian given 30 hours of snow. Must be very light rates much of the time.
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Yeah I'm really looking forward to a Ravens victory myself. Oh wait.
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That looks a bit better to me, especially with the heaviest qpf tying to push up toward us from the beaches.
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Well that's a major disappointment after posters said RGEM looked better. Looks the same to me. Might even be slightly worse for the north folks.
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I know SREF's are kinda worthless around here, but FWIW, BWI mean is now up just over 10 inches. I do notice they tend to follow the most recent NAM run.
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That's crazy. January 25, 2000 is the last time I can remember getting hit by a big surprise snowstorm. There's been some smaller to moderate events but nothing that big. What a great surprise!
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Not all that worried, though hate wasting opportunities. More just in awe of how a storm, especially this early in the year, loaded with moisture doesn't want to climb at all.
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Amazing watching that huge slug of moisture look like it's already hitting a brick wall across the south.
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Wow, it would not take much over the next 24 hours to put Nova and even DC into some good snow. Still probably not much north of that, but maybe some flakes or light snow.
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PSU nailed this. We had those few days where the heaviest axis shifted south instead of staying put, and now the expected north trend isn't likely to be enough to put us in the game. DC and south it could make a difference though, in some cases a big difference. Hope it pans out for all of you.
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I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope.
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Not the same kind of storm or setup, but this reminds me of the one last year that was starting way down in like Miami and we tried to will west. In the end, it did keep trending a little more west and I think it slammed coastal areas but we got nada. This feels similar. Continues small ticks north, but only just enough to bring in the cirrus.
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The GFS snowfall map also has more of a east-west orientation than more southwest-northeast, which I think just shows how much the confluence is really pressing down. Not a good sign.
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Maybe a suggestion that people in Southern VA don't talk about how great things look in a forum dominated by people living between DC and MD-DE line when a model run doesn't even get precip into any part of MD. I don't remember this being an issue in previous years but it's been ridiculous with this storm. I'll see a post about how great the run looks and then go and look for myself and wonder what people are looking at.
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It is ironic how we thought that area to our north was so problematic a few days ago, but had we just kept that look combined with the other improvements, we would have been in solid shape.
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Man, what's going on to our northeast is a disaster that just keeps getting worse and worse.
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It's inching north, but at this rate, it would take until December 15th for it to get any good stuff up to us. We don't have that much time.
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Yeah storms this early in the year seem to always want to push north. Crazy this one is going to stay so far south. The good news is it's December 6 and the pattern looks loaded for the winter.
