osfan24

Euro isn't out yet, but every other model thinks this is a non-event for us and shifts the maybe inch or so north of the MD-PA line.

Looks like it will be a direct hit on Frederick. Will be interesting to see reports out of there.

It's NAM at range but it does not look good for this event. Most moisture either gets hung up in mountains or heads north into PA.

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm waiting for someone to break out the "D" word. 

Ha, someone did last night.

Squall looks good on HRRR. It's actually showing accumulation now for most of Central MD when it comes through. A quick dusting being whipped around would be fun.

HRRR really picking up the squall for tomorrow now. We are on the southern edge, but it looks like a real fun event for NJ and NYC. It really blows up as it approaches the coast and isn't the razor thin line we've seen on guidance.

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

The NAM was definitely too low for those of us who are just N/W of the fall line. It was ok here, especially in the hills. But as you said, the low-level warmth was a good catch, and we went through several hours of white rain before it finally started accumulating. That's probably why the western areas did better.... they got the cold air first.

Yeah the 3K went from a decent storm to literally no storm right before it came through.

Meh, I was kinda disappointed in this event. My roads are just wet and I just ended up with a coating. That dry slot really hurt me before the final hurrah, which was pretty good but very brief and the lull was too much to overcome in terms of getting street accumulation in the end. Happy for those that had a great event though. Sounds like the western part of our region did really well, and it was nice for our far NW friends to finally get something. Beautiful outside though, that's for sure, especially during the final hurrah.

Seemed to me like the Euro did the best job by far. Pretty much nailed the storm. NAM was far too jumpy and GFS and FV3 were too high on totals. Euro pretty much nailed this by giving highest totals to the northwest folks and decreasing totals to an inch as you got to 95 and then almost nothing toward the bay.

The front is moving too much east and not instead NNE.

Nice band forming to the west but that appears to be the end of the line and everything just collapsed between that and the bay.

Snow let up for a bit, but back to a steady light snow and small parts of streets and sidewalks are beginning to cave. Guessing if I get into a heavier band, combined with sun continuing to go down and temps dropping, that everything will cave in a hurry.

Need the back edge to slow down. I hope it slows down like some of those fronts in the summer time as they approach the metro areas and just linger. So many times there is a line of rain and storms coming through during an O's game and they wait it out only to eventually postpone two hours later when it becomes apparent the line is marching forward super slowly.

Beautiful, steady snow. I got my flip by 3. All surfaces other than street and sidewalks starting to cave.

Almost all snow here now, flake size has diminished, and it's coming down the hardest it has all day. Starting to see some flakes start to try to stick to my grill cover LOL.

Probably 50-50 snow/rain now. Hoping I can make the switch by 3.

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Boooo fix that

 

CC mix line is over or just south of me now in greenbelt but still just rain here.

Still a mix here. Some large flakes trying to mix in but really haven't made much progress in the past hour.

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

How’s it look at home HoCo folks?

Snow/sleet/rain mix here. Seems like it wants to try to turn to all snow but coming down so lightly it wouldn't accumulate with these temps either way.

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Slight shift east on the GFS for today but probably just noise.  Seems it will be the snowiest model leading into the event for the corridor.  God speed.

It cut totals a bit as well. Dropped the totals around Central MD by an inch or so and in Northeast MD by an inch or two as well. It's an east shift, but more a drier shift. I'll still take the 3 it is giving me with 10:1 ratios all day. Time to see if FV3 holds.

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Oh yeah, he may certainly be right as in your famous words, perhaps winter has already shown its hand.  Easier to side with more of the same than putting your neck out calling for a change in February.  The LR is performing just absurdly low this season which gives me 0 confidence in any forecast heading into next month.  We'll see how things play out like you say.

I just don't understand the "blockbusters usually don't happen in late February in the northeast" bit...is he talking about northeast Florida?

Have there been though, at least for our area? I don't remember any HECS past our February 2003 storm. And other than that, most of our HECS seem like late January/early February storms.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

He's worse than the weeklies.  

Eh, FWIW, Cranky has never really been on board with a big winter. He's about the only one who hasn't. He did think we would have a nice run of six weeks to close things out, which is already wrong, but he never hyped it as being anything more than winter in the Northeast.

Cranky's blog from yesterday does not buy a magical February. He doesn't even see us having any chance for wintry precip until the third week, we are barely in the mix zone. He give us a shot at being on the southern edge of a storm in the final week, but downplays the chances saying that the northeast doesn't typically have many late February blockbusters.

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

This doesn't seem promising, I guess:

 

Cranky posted yesterday that the system did not seem impressive at all and was struggling to get going.

3K ouch. Where did the snow go?

Anything in the .3 to .4 range would be great. Could get us to borderline warning level snows with those kinds of temps. Those are great events.

3 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

One of the big risks for the metro areas is torching of the boundary layers - the most recent 11z HRRR gets BL wet bulb temps up into the mid-upper 30s in the DC/Balt metro before the onset of the more significant precipitation and thus we waste a significant amount of QPF to rain or non-accumulating snow. I've read on here that the HRRR has a bias of increasing BL temps during lulls but it's something to keep an eye on as a possible way that this event may fail in the metro regions. (11z even torches all the way to the MD/PA border so it would be a fail for everyone).

It's funny how different some of the models are for this storm. Going to be interesting to see which one wins out. RGEM and HRRR have very little along and east of 95. GFS and FV3 are the most bullish. Seeing the GFS the most bullish is odd. NAM is kinda in the middle, with the Euro and CMC kinda between the NAM and HRRR.