osfan24

First cartopper/measurable snow of the winter, if you can call it that. If you slant stick, maybe .1 lol. Pretty close to what I expected, though models may have still been too robust with the amount of precip that would fall as snow for our area. Like showme said, it was probably half of what they showed.

That joke will never get old.

That looks a little better. My weather app has it snowing at 10 pm. I don’t see that looking at radar.

Well yeah it’s definitely going to snow. Timing isn’t great for snow tv unfortunately.

Uhhh that’s pretty awful anywhere around 95. That little bit of model accumulation given temps leading in means it will be white rain.

Seems like this one could have some potential. Still too far out in fantasy land, especially with a significant system coming in late Friday/early Saturday.

6z GFS also looks a lot like the Euro and NAM. I'd highly advise people to lay off the HDERPS or you will be having a Ji-like meltdown come tomorrow.

What other model other than HDERPS, which generally runs cold and is a weenie model, is showing that? When the Euro is showing what it's showing and the NAM shows the same, I know what I would be expecting tomorrow.

Doesn't the GFS have a cold bias now?

To each their own, but I've never understood the fascination with freezing rain. It's just incredibly dangerous. I guess it can look really pretty if it really accumulates? Also have to worry about power issues. Also hate those storms where you can the initial thump of snow to rain. Kinda pointless when it literally washes away in a few hours.

Can anyone recall when we got snow, particularly significant snow, from an anafrontal? I feel like these are always huge teases and never work out.

It's an OP at range so who cares I guess, but I sure would have loved to have seen what was about to happen on the GFS at the end of the 12z run.

3K NAM has some snow showers for Northern MD. Even some light accumulations. Interestingly, it's not as bullish northeast of us. Still some big totals, but nothing approaching 20+.

12K NAM looked close to something interesting for the forum. 3K not so much.

With that kind of ULL pass, how are the snow maps showing virtually nothing for us?

GFS also needs trough to get at least neutral to negative sooner for us to get in on the coastal. It's a strong storm sitting off the coast initially but precip isn't all that great because trough is still too positively titled.

SECS? At least 2 of those are HECS, especially for early December. Definitely getting more interesting. Let's see what the King has to say.

How does 2014 not make this list?

Gonna be a long winter if people are getting worked up on November 17.

It sounds like it will be several months before they decide to make it available. Guessing they want to see how it performs first.

Anyone have any thoughts on this new model IBM created called Graff? It updates hourly instead of every six hours.

Definitely both very cool in their own ways. I would still take the winter with the three big dogs, especially because some forget that there were some nice little systems that hit us leading up to the first big January storm. Plus, getting a big storm before Christmas was pretty amazing. I'll always remember 13-14 though as one of the top winters. Just wall-to-wall legit winter is how I'll remember it. Tracking storms nonstop for 3-4 months. And it wasn't just the snow. It seemed like wall-to-wall cold as well with a lot of crazy snows with temps in the teens and low 20's, even into March. 14-15 was like a very poor man's 13-14. Still a nice winter but just fell short of 13-14 in almost every way. Amazing stretch though. Pretty sure between 2009-2010, the fun storm in 2011, 13-14, 14-15 and the big dog in 2016, we've gotten so spoiled that we forget what normal winters are like. I know I have.

I was out for a run around the same time and could see the snow coming from the clouds to my west. I ended up seeing like 10 of the smallest flakes you could ever see, but it counts! Then I had to drive my daughter to something in Columbia and a little after 6, we got under that real thin band/squall right around 175 and Snowden. It snowed pretty good until I had to turn in a different direction, lol. Stopped almost immediately. Band was incredibly thin, but there were some dark greens and yellows on radar. Anyway, my daughter and I were both really excited so it made our night.

Damn. I must have missed the single snowflake they observed.

Still nothing here.