osfan24

ULL gets way too far north, as does the low that develops near the coast.

Good look if you like rain.

It's so far out there and this winter has been such a dumpster fire that I can't believe anyone is actually paying attention to that already.

Was last winter the one where there was a pretty good storm that hit DC? There was a storm one of the past two winters where DC got like 10 inches or something. My area got like 6ish I think but it snowed lightly all day and there were even breaks during the day where it stopped and there was even some melting. I was like the worst 6 inch snowstorm I've ever seen and I'm not sure I ever even saw 6 inches actually on the ground.

Think it just depends on the winter. We had a stretch there where we could hardly do any wrong some of those winters. The past four winters have been meager to say the least, and the only thing keeping that from being five is the hail mary 2016 blizzard.

People are seeing pretty snow maps and combining that with being snow-starved and just grasping at straws. Maybe it ends up breaking in our favor but the odds are highly stacked against it and I'm certainly not expecting anything around 95.

Usually, a rain to snow scenario involves a changing of direction in the winds, and when the winds shift to the NW, that will bring in the cold air but it also brings in dry air and shuts off the precip. A lot of our snow-to-rain scenarios involve an established cold air mass where the storm track doesn't necessarily matter, because the initial cold air is enough to overcome the initial push of warmer air. Eventually, the warm air wins out. This past weekend was like a very poor man's example of that, but had a bigger batch of precip and heavier precip been aimed in our direction, we could have done pretty well with that. Same thing can also happen with coastal systems if they are too close. We can begin as snow and then switch to sleet and even rain as the winds become too easterly/southeasterly. IIRC, 2011 was a strong upper level low that did create its own cold air. Once we got on the back side of it, we switched over to heavy snow. I love that storm. Just wish it had lasted longer. It really crushed some areas northeast of us. Talk about a heavy thump though, especially of very heavy, wet snow.

EPS not on board is why no one is excited. OP is probably out to lunch.

I'm excited for the negative NAO to pop up in time for Opening Day.

I'm almost to the point of taking some time off from here for a bit. Seems like the blinds are closed for the foreseeable future. It's getting close to the point where it's just time to root for a 2016-type fluke where we get super lucky and get a monster storm and call it a winter. Probably the only way to save this winter.

I thought there were a bunch of GEFS runs where people were going bonkers over the signal and the amount of snow they were putting out. I find GEFS snowfall maps to be completely worthless.

Guidance wasn't the only thing that mishandled plays this past week!!!!!!!!

This week was really the worst. I still haven't gotten over the game. Thought I at least had a great snow pattern to cheer me up. So much for that.

Hour 336 on the GFS is amazing. It's just dumping on 95 with the deform with a 983 mb low right off the coast. Have to imagine there is significant winds with that. You know, the fake system that isn't real that I'm going to analyze for the heck of it.

Yeah this weekend was just a bonus if it worked out. I'm not even a fan of that setup. They usually end up way worse in my actual yard than on the pretty maps. The flip to sleet always happens way sooner than progged and it's mostly a sleet/freezing rain event.

This is a typical Ji post, but it's not really all wrong. There was some hype about the second half of January being really good, but by second half of January, it seems more like the last week, if that, of January could be interesting. 10 days from now is already January 24. And that's if you are buying the 10-15 + day stuff again.

Only an OP but GFS doesn't have much to get excited about.

What a crappy night. Might need to make my first trip the panic room. Ravens go down and the upcoming pattern takes a step back.

I guess we don't have to worry about the weather forecast for next Sunday.

I was thinking the exact same thing as well. Haven't had too many snow games. The Ravens-Vikings game in 2013 was a lot of fun.

I don't either, but fun to look at. It's kinda like buying a lottery ticket before the actual drawing. It's fun to dream lol.

Just saw the 6z GFS fantasy storm. Woooo boy. That looks fun.

Yeah, so lucky. 2014 was an absolute blast.

January/February 2014 was very cold and a parade of storms. It was basically tracking for two straight months. We've had much more snow and much bigger storms, but I don't remember a period that long that was that busy and wintry. February 2015 was basically the same, but to a lesser extent.

It would be quite windy though ahead of the front during the game, wouldn't it?