osfan24

Shocker. It's almost like the AO still being really positive means everything tracks north of us. Who knew?

I have no expectations. It's another thread-the-needle type where you are fighting the main teleconnections that don't support a significant snow event. How many times have we had a big snow under those parameters?

Tony Pann threw up a tweet last night from the 3k showing a 966 meso low sitting over our region this morning and speculated it could lead to some possible snow. I dismissed it as a model error, but it does seem a strong little low ran right through the region.

Heh, we are getting our payback, though for some, last year was FINE.

Went from just cloudy to very dark here in literally no time here in Woodlawn. Had a little wind and heavy rain but it backed off quickly. Just steady rain and calm winds now.

The AO does seem to take a dive and reach its bottom point around the time of this fake storm, but it's still positive.

Nothing. That's the problem.

But I thought last night it said 80-90 percent for more than 3 inches of snow? Oh, so those snow maps ARE worthless?

Teleconnections people! The AO is raging positive. It's not snowing here. Ignore the models. Either the PNA needs to go positive or we need to see some serious movement in the AO to have a chance. Blinds are closed until that happens despite what these fake snow maps might tell you.

If that.

Let the rug pull commence! Been that kind of winter.

Same. Feel like this is going to be a classic rug pull.

Define "big".

I sure hope that juice up closer to game time, especially with those suspect surface temps. Meh.

I always hate to see us on the southern fringe of snowfall maps, but I hate it a lot more when you are just looking at this kind of a pattern because it seems like it's so easy for the waves to trend north in time.

Yeah 3 inches in this winter sounds pretty great right about now.

Agreed. Obviously 2009-2010 is the GOAT and something none of us will likely ever experience again, and 2013-2014 was amazing and will also be hard to experience again because we just kept tracking event after event for the longest time and kept hitting on almost every single one and had some serious cold. I don't ever remember a winter that was legit wall-to-wall like that one. But most of our winters are garbage, and so when you get a legit blizzard and it dumps the most snow in a single storm many of us have ever seen, that makes it worth it. Another cool thing about that storm was that it was locked in for like a week and never budged. Every run kept spitting out insane totals. I would certainly take a 2015-2016 winter right about now!

You are more north but to me, it just looked like numerous rain chances.

Yep! That's gotta be it, thanks! I remember seeing the radar and hearing the reports and being so jealous, but also thinking how painful it must have been for areas right around it. Basically a lake effect snow situation with such a small area getting dumped on and everyone outside that getting almost nothing.

This is random but does anyone remember that really isolated snow event that hit west of Philly I believe? I want to say it was a decade or more ago possibly. From what I remember, it was some fluke snow band that just sat over a small area and dumped snow. I think there were reports of like 15 inches.

These maps are so worthless. Tomorrow we will be in the yellow or orange and then it will flip to almost nothing again. We could be in the red and it wouldn't mean anything. Teleconnections this winter are garbage. Until that changes, only a fluke storm would bring us any snow.

I've had suspicions it's over but held out for the NAO flip. I guess it could still happen and it's crazy to say this since it isn't even February yet, but I think it's over. I'm just big-game hunting now. Hoping we fluke into a -NAO and get something well-timed and get a big storm. Otherwise, just get me out of this mid 40's crap and give me 60.

Ha, I think we all have the same thoughts. Things will change over the next week or so, but sure seems like just more of the same. Chance at a night storm track, but temps won't cooperate no matter how much we hope they will.

Meh, would it matter? That's drizzle or light rain.

Looks like the NAM came back to reality.