osfan24

Wow, a few of those members are really skewing things. Most of those lows are in fantastic locations.

Yep, gotta just hope that's a drunk happy hour run. Needs to be off OCMD. That position will make most get out the canoe.

Doesn't look that bad. Tons of lows out over the ocean. There are some over land for sure, but some of those to the west of the bay seem very unlikely, just like the few that are way out in the Atlantic. Seems like this likely ends up somewhere from Salisbury to a ways off OCMD.

Mixing is obviously always a concern, and I'll be interested to see how my move from Southeast Elkridge to the far western portion of Ellicott City makes an impact. However, I didn't mix even in my old location in December 2009, the two February 2010 storms or the January 2016 storm. I mixed back in 2003 in College Park, and 1996 in the Baltimore area. Obviously, December mixing is more of a concern than later in the winter given climo, but I won't start getting concerned until Monday if the mixing is still showing up. We just don't get many storms around here, especially coastals, where we get around a foot or so of snow. Certainly nothing in recent memory that I can remember. It's either a mauling of around two feet, give or take, or not much. I guess February 2014 and January 2011 could fit the bill sorta/kinda.

We toss. Imagine getting a foot or slightly less while NYC and Boston are digging out of three feet. Doubt it goes down like that. I can't think of many actual big storms where we got significant snow here but then it crushed NYC and Boston. Most of the time when they get big storms, we either get it or it's a swing and miss here because it's just too far east of us.

Seems like a step back for Thursday, especially if Monday is trending better.

Seems like a pretty significant drop in temps there from previous run.

HECS lol. Well, that's my wishcast. In reality, probably 8-12 if it cranks. Just moves too quickly. Need it to slow down and a bit earlier transfer would help.

Aren't most of our big storms Miller B's anyway? Miller A's seem like unicorns these days.

Why does the storm seem to move so quickly? I thought a nice block was in place? Other than that, like the look this far out. Hopefully it trends in our direction.

I really like our chances with this one. Just a slightly faster transfer and we are in good shape. This feels like the one to me. Sure, Monday could work out, but this just seems like it has huge potential and just an overall better chance given teleconnections lining up for this timeframe.

I'm looking at NAM and HRRR and don't see anything.

Where is that coming from? I don't see any model showing anything.

GFS is quite active as well, but it doesn't really help how active these models are if there is no cold air.

I tend to agree with this. And I know everyone says March is really becoming a true winter month around here recently, but we've tried these backloaded winters where things improve in late February and March and the lag effect means it's too little, too late, and often the pattern doesn't actually truly turn into something good until it's April.

At least that city would be a part of this subforum!

Got clouds out there this morning. Lots of clouds. Great storm. We should start making threads for sunny days, too.

I remember looking at the radar of that storm when it was in NC and not understanding the forecast. It was coming due north.

Don't have a problem with him posting, but it's annoying when he posts in this forum that a model is "honking" and then posts images of the model run and it literally shows a handful of flakes for what is 99% of the posters reading the thread.

Probably because there isn't a snow event.

This may come as a shock to you, but literally all but a handful of posters on here are basically Northern VA and north. Most are DC and MD. No one here cares about Richmond.

"Barking." It's like a few snowflakes possible for anyone DC and north. When did this turn into the SW Virginia forum?

Ha, I don't think we will ever see a 2009-2010 again. What I wouldn't do for one of those again.

It's complete fantasy land, but I'll take the storm on the 20th of December on the 18z GFS and happily look at anything else we get the rest of the winter as icing on top.

FWIW, Bernie Rayno is pretty interested and sees the chance for a couple inches in parts of Virginia (outside the mountains) and snow up to Baltimore potentially.