osfan24

I know March 2017 was mentioned earlier as a possible comparison to this one. There was also a storm in 2007 I think where it was supposed to maybe snow a bit and then turn to ice and then rain and we got way more snow than expected. Maybe six inches or something. It was on a weekend and I had to work and I remember it being a really tough commute home on 695.

Nevermind, someone posted it above and yes, it's a massive step back. A low over Baltimore City ain't it, my friends. Are the GFS and Euro really going to be this far apart?

You mean the model that keeps pushing the low farther west each run is worse yet again? Shocked.

January 2000 redux. Mark it off on a bingo board.

For the smart posters, is there any chance this thing bumps east a bit and cuts off earlier? Say, it cuts off of of Virginia Beach? And what would a scenario like that mean? GEFS percentages looked surprisingly decent for me. Better than 50-50 shot at six inches and 20-30 percent at a foot lol.

Might need it to be suppressed to Cuba to have a chance after what we have dealt with for tomorrow's storm.

Unfortunately, the 3K is superior to the 12K and really isn't any better for any of us.

Good luck everyone!

LOL. Amazing how far this has slowly shifted each run for days now. I would say I'll go outside and look up and watch it go over my head, but at this rate, it will probably be over Hagerstown come tomorrow night. I'm expecting pretty much nothing now. Really was looking forward to this one, especially since my kids weren't old enough to remember 2016 and haven't seen a big one yet. That said, I feel really awful for anyone pretty far NW when it looked like no matter what, they were safe. Hope they can still manage to turn things around and have it break right for them.

All of the above. I'm a split between exhausted and acceptance. There comes a point where you know the game is over and you stop fouling and just let the other team run out the clock. I'll check out 12z runs, but it's becoming more clear that not only does it get warm and any front-end snow washes away, but there isn't going to be some amazing deform show on the back end, either. Early in the winter for sure, but so frustrating to see a potential big storm just pulled out from under us, especially when you would have thought there would be some adjustments back to the east.

Looked like it was about to be a beatdown and then that weird low popped up on the Eastern Shore and messed it all up.

3K seemed so close to something good for my location. Rain/sleet gets to me for several hours but almost held off. Adjustments needed don't seem that great.

Low placement and direction is still odd. Off Charleston, almost due north to just south of NC/VA border, then jumps ENE to just south of Eastern Shore, and resumes heading NNE just barely off the Delmarva.

Ouch. Low seems to form somewhere just off the coast between Charleston and Myrtle and it almost comes due north from there. Just a little more easterly component to that movement from that far south would make a major difference by the time it gets up closer to us.

That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op.

I thought it was odd as well. There's also the double barrel structure going on as well, though it seems the low closest to the coast is the dominant player.

Seemed like a step back with thermals from 12z, but it's just 10 miles here or 10 miles there making the difference it seems.

Yeah, it's agonizingly close.

Ha, I noticed that, too. I'm in part of that area. I'm just going to assume whiteout.

It's probably possible it could crack top 10 December snowfalls all time at BWI and maybe top five at Dulles if things really broke right. Given the axis of snowfall though, this is going to be a storm where BWI probably reports a total that is not very reflective of what most of the Baltimore region receives, and that's before you get into the fact that they seem to always measure low even when compared to spotter reports down the street. I used to be pretty close to BWI and the discrepancies were ridiculous, especially for the biggest storms.

COULD this happen? Sure. But this is really misleading to the public to showcase a model showing this.

If I was going to go down with a ship, it would not be the RPM

It's a crazy close call for us if, ya know, that was the actual real solution.

GFS is caving. It's warm.

I appreciate anyone with knowledge and their opinions, especially a met. I think it's awesome they are on this board. I think the thing bothering most is that his educated opinions are presented as facts that are a 100% lock. If he just presented his opinions and showed why he thinks this or that will happen, it would come off differently. It's definitely the tone and way it is presented.