osfan24

If he keeps changing the dates enough times, he will get it right one time!

Fringed!

I get things look promising but his thoughts are crazy. Best look since 1996? LOL. No models even have a snowstorm right now. This far out in 2016, almost every model was showing a storm and was locked in the rest of the way.

That's going to be a tough road. We still have six days to go and it's going to warm up and we are going to get some sun this week and that's before we get all that rain and temps surge Thursday.

I thought that band was going to end up missing me to the west and now it looks like it's just going to miss me to the east. Fringed.

Maybe that's sleet heading into Columbia. Otherwise, it's a Hoco deathband. Seeing oranges now on radar.

Looks like maybe a little batch of snow blossoming in Moco right now? Seeing some yellows.

Just need a more progressive low for Christmas. Keep nudging southeast.

Low looks a bit east of where it was at 12z.

Nothing happening on the Euro through at least Christmas Day.

Agreed. This is likely to tease us just enough but it's going to be one of those things where the precip is gone once the cold air gets here.

Yeah, those maps are great when there is no temperature concern. When there are major temperature concerns, those maps are almost worthless.

Thermals were pretty good. Low location was awful.

Same. I just looked outside and was like wait, what? Why is there snow back on my car? Nice little dusting to freshen everything up!

Or Dr. No?

I don't remember that one.

I'm sure it will work out I will be today years old when we get snow out of an anafront.

Yes it would. I remember we had some snow back in 2008 maybe? A little snow on Christmas morning that was enough to give us around an inch.

That always works out well for us! LOL.

I noticed where I was in Ellicott City didn't make a huge difference yesterday. Elkridge got basically the same amount of snow and my changeover each time was basically just minutes ahead of Columbia. My elevation is about 450 feet, but at least with this storm, it seemed like it didn't matter.

What I wouldn't do for some snow on Christmas, especially a major storm. And this year would be the perfect year to be snowed in on Christmas.

I wonder if that's a timing issue for these maps. Everything I've seen shows a cold front coming through with possibly some precipitation, and then it getting very cold behind the front.

Man, that could have been us. Crazy how far north that ended up though. Nowhere even remotely close to where it was modeled for days and days. I must have missed most of that last band. I had mostly sleet on the cleared surfaces with maybe a dusting of snow on top of that. The Euro and the NAM were awful with low placement, but the thermals were pretty good. They had the 850s getting too warm well into PA and that was accurate. If anything, they still underdid that. The HRRR did a terrible job timing the changeover (it was way earlier than it said), but did a better job showing the backside stuff as sleet and not snow and hardly accumulating for my area. Euro definitely gave me way too much with that.

Still sleet here. Maybe a few flakes mixed in? Hard to tell.

I can confirm.