osfan24

LOL. That model just seems to take reasonable snowfall amounts and multiply it by 1.5 or more.

2016 was great but 1996 was a true blizzard with huge snow drifts and it also was the first storm I really remember tracking. I remember seeing the Blizzard Warnings on Local on the 8’s on TWC and just being glued to the TV. Like others mentioned, the two significant follow-up storms in 1996 also made it special. I loved the afternoon of 2016 when the deform finally crept a bit east and I was just getting pounded with insane rates and ratios for 3-4 hours. And the appetizer before the storm was pretty cool. Great snow squall. 2009-2010 is obviously super special. 3 blizzards, two of them back-to-back, and there were also numerous storms that lead up to the two February storms that all seemed to overperform. I think the parking lot where I worked still had a tiny bit of snow left from the massive piles they built up into late May/early June. January 2000 is underrated because of the surprise. I remember kids at school asking me what I thought would happen because I had gotten a reputation as the weather guy. I remember getting home and looking at the radar and being so confused how they kept saying it would miss us and it would go east and out to sea. It looked like it was coming straight at us. And then throughout the evening and night, they just kept increasing forecasted amounts.

Not great. So much for those above average precip predictions for January. Gonna be behind if Saturday is a dud and really behind if the next 12 plus days have nothing.

I hope not. Otherwise, it seems like it will basically be just a repeat of last winter unless this Saturday storm suddenly morphs back into a big one.

Closing in on two inches with this second round. Back edge is coming quick but I should get there.

It’s ripping here. Best snow I’ve had all day.

Lowlanders been winning since 2016. They have made out fine.

Snowing nicely with some big flakes now. Dry slot is ominous, though. Looks like most of us will either barely end up in the expected range of snowfall or not quite make it to that range. Tonight should help if it can dump a few inches.

Light snow here. All surfaces, including roads, already covered.

Let’s goooooo. Saw there were over 200 new posts in here and knew something huge must have happened. Need to reel in a HECS!

Disappointing as 3K had been so consistent. Hopefully, just a one-run blip. We’ve seen that before.

Ehh, looks less north unless the coastal really dumps. That southern MD area over to the Delmarva looks like the big winner, at least one a lot of the models.

I thought 6z was a small step back but I didn’t see them side by side.

I wouldn’t freak about the NAM. It’s still the NAM and out of range and 3K is the good NAM anyway. That’s the one to focus on as we get closer.

NAM seems really fast? Out of here pretty quick?

Trash. Like the NAM on steroids. Not sure it’s ever been right. Always has insanely high qpf.

I still really like where we are to be very close to ground zero for this. Just let the Euro slowly nudge north and I expect at gametime it will end up a tiny bit north of modeled.

Just a few miles to my east. Ouch.

Where are you in HOCO? Must be the only person getting rippage.

Yeah, this was dirty work by the squall.

Squall heading right for me and @WxUSAFsuddenly somehow skated by us to the north. Hoping I get paid back Monday.

Must have just missed you then because it just missed me. Looks like another small one heading our way but a bunch of snow squall warnings out in PA. Maybe those hold together and get down here? They are far away, though and no modeling shows them reaching here.

Got the very northern edge of the squall coming through Hoco. Got quite gusty for a couple of minutes and was enough to quickly whiten some of the mulch. I bet the meat of that squall is really good. DC got double squall action. Great event down there.

Looks like a few squalls might head for Central MD. First one might just miss me to the south but could get @WxUSAF

The NAM is definitely known to be overly optimistic on qpf but was the qpf on this run that out of line on what we saw from some other model runs earlier? There might be a larger area of the heavier qpf on the NAM but other models showed areas with 1.25 to 1.5ish inches of liquid.