osfan24

Is a cold powder-warning level even with no stress really in the cards, though? Isn't that going to require suppression of the coastal, which is going to likely cause a lot of stress over whether we get enough precip far enough north to cash in? Everyone can root for what they want. Like another poster says, it won't change the final result. But we haven't had a real snowstorm in five years. Sure, a nice 6-10 would be great. But like PSU said, you only get the ingredients to come together for a big one every so often. We've had a -AO forever. It's time to cash in and hit a grand slam, not a double.

Yeah, I'm hoping this is the southern extent and we see the 100 mile bump north from now until game-time.

I don't know if I would trade it for the modeled 20 inches Kuchera gives me, but for 40+ that Northern VA gets, I would do that. It would be a historical storm. Most snow ever in one storm.

I know. I guess the good news is the storm is kinda getting its act together by midday Sunday, so it's kinda five days away? This will be the longest week ever. Well, until the Euro takes it all away tonight, lol.

Just about done here. Maybe 1/4 inch or so? Most sidewalks and some parts of streets caved. Overall, gotta say it was disappointing. Not sure anywhere will come remotely close to those NAM/Euro model runs. GFS honestly might have been closest on this one, even if it was showing more mix than snow. Daughter was so mad on our walk back to the house. Said all she wanted was a big storm and to be able to sled. She was 10 months old when 2016 hit. If you think she is mad and frustrated....

Gonna go take the kids out for a walk in it.

It looks like there is nothing west of Winchester area. Not enough push from the south to get the good stuff into our area and keep the snow going longer.

Back edge of this appears to be not all that far away and booking it.

Steady light snow now. Small patches of driveway and sidewalk starting to cave.

Very light snow now. Light dusting on the car. We've got a car-topper.

Over to flurries now.

Mostly light sleet here still. Gonna need the intensity to pick up to probably switch it to snow. Looks like some heavier echoes out toward Frederick now. This might fringe PSU. Looks like a 70 and south deal and really, probably more like a Route 50 and south deal, just looking at radar.

Light snow/sleet/rain mix.

Agreed. Think it's going to be a close call for me. This might be a DC suburbs special.

HRRR looks good for mostly snow and then some ice, but the rates must be pathetic. Snows for 4-6 hours and most areas get an inch.

Ha, 3K trying to pull people back in.

My new bar for this is just give me some mid-to-late afternoon snow so I can go for a run in it. That's all I ask.

Stick a fork in this one. Imagine having a -NAO and -AO for two months and getting a couple of sloppy inches. Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!

Euro not showing much. Just not much precip. Also may be a tad warmer, but it's mostly noise/lack of precip problem.

Yeah, we are probably 24-48 hours away from officially setting our sights on the big President's Day storm.

Agreed. The GEFS is completely worthless. Basically locked into some kind of snowstorm, and now we aren't at all.

It looks like it is trying to go negative.

Euro seems on its own and that small band of snow seems to keep shrinking. This still seems like a half hour or hour of snow and then sleet.

Yeah, I am sure if it snows hard and we get 6-10 or something, I'll be happy with that, even if the duration is quite short. It would be my best storm since 2016. Maybe I'm just spoiled from that hot stretch we were on, but man, it seems like forever since we got crushed and I'm like a drug addict needing a fix. I just got pretty optimistic between PSU saying this was the period he was targeting for a big one and then seeing the GFS with a few runs of a monster storm and the CMC also joining the party.

It's not like the temperatures are crazy warm, but my guess is what kills us is the fact that the air is so modified by the time it reaches us. I'd also guess that snowcover is down as well to our northwest, which again, doesn't help fight the modifying air as it heads our way.