osfan24

Yep. We want it just a little off OCMD. That's out sweet spot. It gets too far east and we end up with Boxing Day 2010 when it all slides east of us and Philly gets clipped and NYC, NJ and NE get buried.

Was just throwing out the most recent of our big storms. Could throw out 2009, 2010, 2003, 2000, etc. I just remember big qpf totals really far out for 2016, and that storm was only 24 hours. This could be 1.5 to almost 2 times that.

1996 is the first storm I remember and we definitely had a period of sleet and I was just west of 95 in the Baltimore area.

Maybe it's just been so long since we tracked a potential MECS/HECS, but I just remember 2016 seeming so locked in from basically a week out and just insane snowfall totals and qpf amounts really far out. You would just think such a long duration coastal, as this is depicted, would be showing at least equally obscene totals, if not more.

This looks beautiful. I'm assuming the only reason we aren't being blued/yellowed is because it's an ensemble run? That's my main issue. Our big storms, the deform and even WAA snows show 1-2 inches an hour, sometimes even higher. This shows like a quarter inch to a half inch an hour.

Wow, wish we could lock that up. Kuchera would be a crushing.

I still have nightmares about the Valentines Day 2014 storm. Got like 10-12 or so with the WAA and then got hit with drizzle and a dry slot. Snow melted a ton to just a few inches before backside came through with some heavy sleet and then some snow to end.

The comma head looks great, but what's with the lack of significant precipitation? Low position also looks farther off the coast than we would like, at least to my untrained eye. I just watched Bernie Rayno's periscope. It was pretty good. He urged caution. Said it looks good for someone to get over a foot, but liked PA and NY and west of 95 for that. He said he is concerned how far south the energy dives and that the upper low has to cut off to get the storm up the coast. Also said there are lots of pieces of energy flying around, complicating things.

A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away.

Looks perfect. OP is clearly NW of the almost all of the ensembles, so that's good news.

Why isn't the precipitation rate much heavier? I would expect it to be snowing heavily, especially in the CCB, but we never seem to get above moderate snow. If we had a storm with this kind of duration with the kind of rates we received from previous storms, the totals would be obscene.

Meh, not when it's double the amount 10-20 miles west.

Me too. The low is really tucked in. Also surprised the qpf wasn't higher given the duration. It seems like it's mostly just light to moderate snow for 36+ hours.

Awesome run for, say 270 and west folks. East of there, not as good. 95 and east, definitely worrisome.

Eh, 126-132 isn't so great. Looks like storm almost rides due north and stalls at mouth of bay. Looks a lot like some of those NW ensemble outliers from 6z. Sleet right over 95 and maybe slightly west of it.

114 just south of Hatteras and moderate snow almost up to PSU/Mappy.

Looks good to this novice at 102.

Biggest Euro run of our lives! Torn on what it will show. The CMC is encouraging because it was so close to a monster storm. But the Euro is on its own and we are getting fairly close to gametime with some models showing snow fairly early Sunday. Have this nagging feeling it's going to cave.

CMC looks an awful lot like just a weaker version of the Euro to me. Snows forever, and like PSU said, just make it a better transfer and a little stronger and it's a much better result. Snows for like 60 hours.

I want a HECS more than anyone, but that's a region wide 6-8 inches for a "disaster run" of a model we already know isn't very good and was awful leading up to tomorrow's storm. If that's the floor for this storm, I'm feeling pretty great.

And it was so good for the storm tomorrow...….oh wait, then it drove it way south.

Nothing is locked in, but I'll side with the Euro/EPS after what happened with the "big snowstorm" that was spit out by some models for tomorrow. And Euro/EPS has been rock solid for several runs now. Of course, adjustments or even a cave by the Euro is possible. But GFS has been slowly trending to it. I'll start to get concerned once the Euro wavers.

I get it's the only game in town at the moment, but why are people literally freaking out about one run of the Icon 100 hours out? It's the Icon.

Gonna take a guess and say the ensembles temps are being skewed by those outliers sitting inside the bay. There are a bunch of them, so something to watch, but the large majority are well off the coast.

It is? Doesn't look like it on the map posted above. At the time, looks like it runs just south of DC.