osfan24

NAM looks great if you live in NYC or NE. Model mayhem with 72 hours to go.

Oh, well would you look at that, the NAM is running.

No doubt. Looks like that area gets a really nice thump from WAA and doesn't really have to worry as much about getting any coastal action to easily hit warning level criteria and then some.

I thought the Euro did fine with the WAA. It seems like it is juicing that part up. It is just losing the second part of the storm, which is the main show.

Same. Looked like it had really nice WAA snow and then a brief lull mix followed by the CCB crushing us. I just wish that was actually a good model. Euro last night was really concerning and PSU's concerns came to fruition. It does seem like a couple models are pushing the deform out much quicker and the long duration idea is losing some of its steam.

Icon snow maps are so bizarre based on what site you used. They are different by 15 inches for some.

Wrap up the Icon and call it a day. Widespread 2 feet with better ratios from the deform. We've always said the Icon is a wonderful model.

That would be ideal.

Weird you got sleet in Feb 11, 2010. I don't remember any sleet with that one. Seemed like a straight cold powder bomb, but maybe I'm not remembering right. Maybe there was a lull with sleet in the middle. I think recency bias is part of the issue. I don't remember sleet in any of the 2009-2010 storms, and not in the 2016 storm either. I got sleet in 2003, but it was at the end and I was in College Park, which got less (and always seems to) than the surrounding area anyway. You also tend to remember the great part of the storms and the end result more than anything that happened during it, though when you are getting sleeted on, it is agonizing waiting for the changeover. It was torture waiting for the changeover in January 2011, and then it dumped like 8 inches in three hours.

Would be a good time for a good NAMing.

The animation PSU showed though does show that there is less amplification. It's not only more suppressed, but also just flatter and less dynamic. Maybe the trend reverses. But like he said, we are losing the big dog potential.

Possibly, but PSU brought up some good points. Cannot miss the capture and let it slip away.

Wow, that looks amazing before the coastal even gets going. That run looks like it could have been epic.

Come on down! Not sure I'll be far west and north enough to stay west of the mix line, but I sure hope I jackpot with the biggest qpf and get cold smoked!

Here comes the JUICE! Loving these juicy 18z runs so far. Starting to see HECS type potential.

I'm not sure it's a matter of the low not tucking or stalling. It snows forever. It's just the intensity is lacking. Look at what PSU posted above. Granted, it is ensembles, but less than .5 qpf from a deform band? I know the ratio can be high with that, but 15-20 hours of a deform that drops that amount is sad and basically unheard of. Either the storm just lacks the qpf, or the models are underestimating and it will juice up come gametime.

Looks a bit more jucied up that previous runs. That's the trend I wanted to see. Just need to expand and pivot that bright orange area farther south for all.

Weird storm. Not sure I've ever experienced something like this. A coastal storm that last forever but never snows hard, or really even moderately for a long period of time. You would think the totals would be obscene from a deform that lasts so long. Is there a reason this has so little significant precipitation with it? Maybe it will juice up? Also pretty obvious that a very small area is likely to jackpot with 20+ and everyone else is probably looking at a general 8-14.

LOL, so is it not tucked and strung out, or is it tucked in? Sure looks tucked pretty close from the image a few posts above.

CMC so close to something special. Just gets a little too warm for a little too long. Take out the 8-10 hours of mix/rain and look out! Begin the Euro countdown. GEFS looks awesome.

Make it snow and...........BOOM! That's the kind of qpf I'm looking for.

Meh. Makes sense though given the Euro and CMC are the only models delivering the goods.

A repeat of that would be awesome! Gotta see some juicier runs soon!

Need the primary to die sooner and it is game on. EPS looked pretty good. I liked seeing bigger totals on the Euro, though the concern would be how it shifted north into exactly the area Bernie was talking about. CMC was a real nice run last night. I just don't want a scenario where we end up with 8 inches and NYC is getting crushed. I liked the solutions that parked the low off VA beach and we got deformed for two days.

I'll take the WAA from the GFS and the coastal from the Euro.