osfan24

So it's now looking like ICON, Euro, RGEM are all basically in agreement. I'm going to guess the CMC shows something similar. And the GFS isn't that far off.

I guess there is still time for a trend back south, but there's clearly a consensus growing that west of Philly up through NJ and into NYC is going to be the heaviest axis of snow.

What implication would this have?

Who cares? Almost time to get RGEM'd.

Euro and GFS have some big totals near Baltimore. It just matters exactly what part, because the difference is huge based on how far south the band sinks and where it sinks south.

The ones farthest south but fairly tucked in would match the RGEM closest, not that it means you would get the same snow amounts but..........

Worried you need a snowblower? The plows will have too much snow to clear?

Agreed. That was a really good post and it's amazing how similar those low positions are at that point.

FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there.

Look at the snow totals count up by the hour once the deform part of the storm begins. It's snowing like a tenth of an inch of snow for hours on end. That ain't gonna get it done. I'm sure it has something to do with the resolution, but like was mentioned before, the low needs to tuck farther south to get the best deform. The Euro is probably about 100-150 miles north of the RGEM.

Yeah I was just coming to post that. At 1 pm, the RGEM is basically east of the mouth of the bay. The Euro is sitting off of Rehoboth.

Euro seemed fairly tucked, but the precip isn't great, especially down this way. Deform band just drops a few inches. Hopefully it's wrong, but it doesn't seem to be budging and looks similar to the GFS to be honest.

Here we go! Let's see a shift in our favor!

That's an hourly simulation, but yes, the hope is it just stalls out and meanders for awhile. Just need it to do it in the right spot. Canadian models love us for some reason. Let's just pray they are right.

Ha, beat me to it. Canada loves Baltimore!

If the RGEM is right you can cook me on the grill.

The one that gives you the most snow, duh! Nah, I'd never really want to hug just one model, but gun to my head, it's still the Euro.

No Euro yet obviously, but I like where we sit. Most of us are comfortably in the zone for decent action from the deform, and some have us right in the thick of it while most models show us just a bit south of ideal. I'd feel real good if I lived between extreme Northern MD and the York area, Mappy, PSU, etc.

That's certainly interesting and a significant trend.

Remember when people said this storm didn't have HECS potential? Maybe it won't be a HECS here, but somewhere could certainly get one.

I thought 3K looked a tad better. It's not there yet, but it's way better than 12k and hopefully is catching on. I think we all just need to hug the hell out of the RGEM. It's been consistently delivering for us. Agree with what PSU said above about the trend with these tends to be later than modeled redevelopment, so you would certainly not prefer to see yourself on the southern edge of the CCB on models. Looks like somewhere between NYC and Philly is likely the spot to be, but let's see what happens.

What I would for this to be true. It gets almost everyone a beatdown in the entire region. Shares the wealth with everyone, even a huge chunk of the Eastern Shore.

I wonder if the WAA snow ends up overperforming. I feel like we've seen that happen before and given the trajectory of the heavier snow to our southwest, you wonder if that pushes in early and rolls our way.

Because they basically mimic the OP that close in.

I meant "next model run", but ok.