osfan24

Wobbles will obviously continue to occur, but don't like seeing the EPS basically move to a bullseye on NYC. That's way north. We don't want to be on the southern edge. That's a dangerous game to play.

A 978 low in Kentucky is not great. Need it to be way less strong. 

I'll take my chances at this point. We've had nothing and we are talking March. Go big or go home.

Well, I saw some flakes. But nothing close to any kind of accumulation. Those maps were awful. Looks like the heaviest preciP was wayyyy south. Next.

Radar looks like straight garbage and I’m already in the mid 30s but I’ll try to keep the faith.

2 hours ago, Ji said:

What kind of storm are you referring too? A storm like what? We have a legit nao this time and some 5050 action

.

An actual wound up storm rather than an overrunning event. I guess February 2003 was kinda overrunning, but it's the only one I can think of that crushed us with a similar type setup.

DT seems to be wrong a lot but I actually think he is probably right here. I just don't like the trajectory of this storm, especially for those kinds of totals. When have we ever had a storm like this dump on us? This kind of storm always seems to get suppressed and slide to our south or ends up too far north and it rains.

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji you asked about the PDO... unfortunately we are only about 5 years into this current -PDO.  The last -PDO lasted for 35 years.  This is something I've hinted at a couple times, but its depressing... but what if the "snowy" period we've been waiting for here actually was the 2000 to 2020 period and it simply wasn't that snowy here because the climate was already degrading we just didn't notice as much because of the +PDO we were in.  But places not too far north of us were getting absolutely blasted with snow during that period while we were only about average.  What if that really was the very snowy cycle we were due for and we simply didn't take advantage of it because things were already getting warmer.  And now we are in another "down cycle" and its god awful instead of just bad.  

 

ETA:  this does not have to be a AGW debate btw.  Whether it's warmer because of a normal cycle that has nothing to do with AGW or not is irrelevant.  We can discuss changes in our snow climo without having to debate AGW.   

If true, this would be crushing.

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE something interesting to consider as we head into a March where the NAO looks to be cooperative... during the last -PDO cycle from the 1940s through the 1970s we averaged a LOT more snow in March than recently.  The avg during that period at BWI was 5" but more importantly was the frequency of absolute monster months and storms being in March.  There were definitely more total shutout March months than Jan/Feb even back then...but 7 times BWI had a double digit March month during that last -PDO cycle.  And several more times got close with 7-9" March months.  There were even two 20" March months...which is something we rarely even get in January or February frankly.  

Bringing this up because there are a lot of people that seem to want to toss December and March now.  Problem is...the same thing I just said about March applies to December...during that last PDO cycle we had quite a few monster Decembers also... if you start acting like we can't get Dec or March snow and tossing those months...well you are tossing what was a big portion of our snow climo during the last -PDO cycle.  If we do get blocking, even in March, we need to be able to take advantage of it.  We used to be able to.  March 1941, 1942, 1943, 1952, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1962, 1964, 1969, 1976 and 1980 were the snowiest months of the whole winter in many places in our region.  Those winter's wouldn't have been nearly the same if we just tossed March.  March can, and has to be, a very snowy month sometimes if we want to maintain anything close to our "normal" snow climo in this -PDO cycle.  

I pretty much toss December, though sometimes we can manage some small events there, and expect March to have some chances even if the snow melts away in a day or less. But some of that is probably recency bias because, other than 2009 and a decent event I think in 2013, I can't remember very many December snows, whereas March seems to have been littered with them over the past decade. We've seemingly had some pretty cold March's lately, but that might also be skewed by 13 and 14.

I salute those who are legitimately taking this all seriously still and very closely tracking whatever it is that you are tracking. The true definition of insanity. True gluttons for punishment. It's truly impressive.

This seems about as likely as getting snow on February 29th.

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It ain’t comin back 

Can something come back that was never here?

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Radar would be pretty sweet if this was snow

Yeah I keep looking at the radar and it is so depressing. Would easily top a foot if this was snow. Radar looks classic.

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS compared to 6Z…cave to the dry EURO….

Is it really drier or is the low just not making it as far north, so the heaviest slug is shifting southeast?

Could be worse. Imagine those people in the Carolina Mountains thinking they could get a foot plus of snow.

Can't believe we didn't even get one good NAMming from this storm. Seemed like the perfect kind of storm that would shoot out a run or two of ridiculous snow totals here.

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

not trying to steal @psuhoffman's job here but the surface temps are just scorching and the 850s are only marginally better -- the control throws down this absolute banner of a deform band and it isn't enough to paste the cities, at least verbatim.

That should be a 2-3 inch per hour band. Instead, it's rain.

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the CIPS analogs are interesting, but many caveats apply of course - mainly that cold air thing.
 

Some very interesting storms in there, especially toward the top. Surprised 1/23/16 was a close match and that we didn't see January 2011 in there. 2/13/14 was in there, but I remember that having a very cold airmass ahead of it. The surprise January 2000 storm is in there. And then, I don't remember it somehow, but the 2006 storm is in there, and from what people have described about it, that seems like more of a match from an air mass standpoint.

Who's gonna dare start the thread? 

It's definitely better. A long way to go but certainly enough of a step in the right direction to march forward to 18z.

Need that negative tilt. That's just too positive.

Perhaps models beginning to meet in the middle.

Definitely reminds me of January 2011. Would be funny in this winter if we got something out of this given how terrible the setup us with temperatures, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure the GFS is right this time, lol!

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Speaking of LR, we could theoretically have a chance for something in early April with this look:

But alas, we have plenty of chances still coming this month and into March so hang tight. Never a doubt on the backloaded winter thing this year.

We can't get it cold enough to snow in January and February with perfect track storms but I'm sure April we could see some snow, lol.

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0.4” at IAD and DCA, 0.2” at BWI. 

BWI barely avoids going down in infamy. Cut it close there. Curious what some parts of Southern MD received. Seemed like the moisture kinda went with the 0z GFS idea and focused the bulk of the precip down there. Euro was out to lunch.