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9 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

euro looks solid -- did take a step back but totals around suburbs remain the same prob bc of better banding

Looks awful. That's white rain.

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

march 1958 storm was crazy

Would be incredible to get a repeat of that.

I'm getting concerned that the final chapter is almost finished and the book will be for sale on Amazon by the end of the month.

2 minutes ago, frd said:

YES

 

 

Looks like it is already in 8? Also, didn't someone say Phase 1 is the best for a Nina and March or am I making that up?

Same story as the whole winter: there is just no cold air. PSU is working on the final chapter.

Wake me up when we are in the pink, white, or mint.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

it dosent make sense posting a snowmap that dosent show snow? 

Right, but if he only posted snow maps that did show snow, he would never get to post any so.......

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

why do you post these when they are bad?

Because otherwise he would never post them.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Hr 78 euro slightly improved. H5 seems slightly south. But less ridging. But more confluence to our northeast. 

It's like one step forward and one back.

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Gfs looks significantly further south out to hour 99 with the main low. 

A tad. Still not near enough, but it's a start hopefully.

The thing around the 20th can definitely still work here. It's more that we keep doing what we've done all year, which is keep pushing all the threats back out past that 7+ day window. This time seems different, or maybe I'm just an idiot and Lucy is pulling the football again. This is the first time I really believed in anything since December, but my patience is being tested for sure. Seems like within the next week or so, we will know whether we have something or we can just move on.

That primary is still way too far north. Need to see that start adjusting south.

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, IF things continue like this in the coming years, I think we're gonna have to learn to be okay with this. I mean seriously--for our own mental/spiritual health! I mean yes we don't know everything about the future (only what the trend has been up to this date), but if this is coming/gonna get worse...we have to learn to be okay with it--I mean we have no choice, lol.

It may not be worth getting upset about (or even giving too much thought to)...otherwise we'll be living in a dread of "terrifying" trends and such creating the illusion of some objectively bad thing coming that isn't really objectively bad.

My guess is if, say, a decade from now, snow chances are where they are now or worse...we would have gotten used to that reality (by force--because literally nothing would've happened, and things could be worse by then!). We all love snow--but maybe our reality in the future is more of this, I don't know. But it may soon be time to kinda distance ourselves y'all, lol 

I mean unless you love tracking weather just to track weather (and to each their own), if you're tracking for snow? It may not be worth it, seriously. I mean we'll see...but I've already kinda been preparing for that reality. With you-know-what being a potential cause!

Be ok with what? If this is the new base state, we will just have to shut down the forum. There won't be anything to track but once a decade or so when all of the stars align.

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Nice animated view of the 12z EPS that was posted in the NE thread.

 

The transfer is just way, way too late. It's gotta transfer down in Kentucky area, not almost to Detroit, and it has to be slight farther to the southeast when it transfers. Give me something off Myrtle or at least OBX.

Woke up with a big jump in thread pages and knew something big happened last night. Really great shift from the GFS and nice to see the CMC and Euro with big storm ideas. Hope we tracking some legit threats by the end of the weekend.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know some hate late snow but that storm dropped ~50” in places around here from incredibly high QPF. Would be like those Sierra storms almost.  I don’t care what time of year it is that would be cool. 

LOL yeah, who in the world would turn something like that down? It would stink it would disappear so fast, but who cares when you get to experience a mid-March bomb? That would be almost unprecedented here.

I thought the GFS was a step in the right direction. At least it showed the kind of storm that I would think we would get out of this pattern, even if it wasn't exactly what we wanted. It's like 260 hours away.

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

My no expert take is that the beginning of our window has shifted from the 9th to the 11-12th timeframe.  it would be nice to see that window hold over the next few days and not slip too much further.  We are running out of time…

Yeah, that's the problem. Every shift back a day or two hurts a lot more right now than January or February. We can live with the slight shifts back if we hit immediately, but the problem is it's probably going to take us a few chances to get a hit. We can definitely get a good snowstorm into the third week of March, but I have trouble remembering something that hit after like the 21st. I remember a good, very heavy, wet snow that hit in March of 1999 I believe and I think that one hit pretty late. I think I got like 6-10 or something from that.

On 2/3/2023 at 8:25 PM, MN Transplant said:

Woof.

That's what I noticed. Bottom 10-20 years were just littered with the past decade and 25 years.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

18z gfs went south and east lol

It did? Must have been a very slight change.

6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I am in meetings - sounds like the snow is not even within a few hour drive? This sucks so hard. 

How far is Albany from you?

The bad news is we are yet again 10 days away, and climo is going to start factoring in to some degree, and increasingly so as time progresses. The good news is that the actual 10 days away thing seems far more real than any of the fake 10 days away stuff people have been constantly getting excited about this year. And if Lucy does pull the football again, at least we all know it's the last time and we can move on to spring.

At least the Americans appear to be back on top. 

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

6z icon back to the toilet

Pretty sure the Icon IS the toilet.

Yeah we don't need the bleeding to stop. We need a massive shift south.

Not surprised. The margin for error was always so small with this one. Needed the perfect track, and the small shifts north were a bad sign.