jbenedet

It seems that this shouldn’t remain a mystery for long. The mesolow—if it develops—is currently developing off the Carolina coast. That much is consistent across the guidance which has it. We watch.

Just being facetious. Seems like splitting hairs in this case, bc where it may not verify in the front end has a decent probability of verifying on the back end.

Heh south coast of RI, is RI. I’d go south shore MA over CT.

Whatever the case is, the mini cane that heads into Coastal RI, has been remarkably consistent across guidance since early yesterday...

I dunno, maybe I’m oversimplifying this, but to me the whole problem gets reduced to this: either we see nascent signs of a tropical disturbance develop off the SE coast today, or we don’t. If it’s the latter, the less amped 0z/6z euro-esque solution is the most likely outcome.

Yea I can see it in the warm sector where its collocated with deep convection and then post occlusion in the south eastern quadrant, assuming it tracks near/over ORH as the ageostrphic flow at the surface remains off the 55-65F ocean while the mid/low level circulation begins wrapping in a continental polar airmass. The more maritime tropical air this can flood into the region the more substantial and prolonged the “part II” of the winds will be...RI and south shore MA look like the best places to be....

will be very interesting to see if the deep convection off the GA coast develops a weak SLP today.

12z Ukie looks a lot like the Euro now.

I do think this evolution would make a whole lot more sense, physically, if there was a tropical disturbance off the southeast coast prior to the approach of the UL trough across the Midwest. There is a weak surface trough that stalls just off the SE coast tomorrow. Some guidance shows shower activity and clouds collocated in that region. I’ll be focusing on that area tomorrow to see if there’s any sign of tropical development...

The UL setup really isn’t that terribly anomalous for us—good for a significant Nor’easter no doubt—but 960’s??? The only way the nuke materializes is with a robust tropical connection. Either the euro and nam are wayyyy OTL on what happens near Savannah GA, or we’re going to see a small cane running up the coast.

NAM is clearly a warm core system up to Coastal SNE. I’d toss this far if not for the euro showing a similar solution several runs in a row now...

I’d be much more inclined to sell the wind threat if this was winter or especially early spring. Mid October climo (SST’s) will —in general—translate to much more efficient mixing down to the surface in the warm sector pre-occlusion and in the eastern half of the system post occlusion. In terms of population impacted we need to see if this west trend persists. What do the impacts looks like if this occludes over Hartford CT or Providence RI vs Portsmouth NH? Worst impacts in terms of wind and surge shift from coastal ME to coastal MA and RI...Low probs at this point, but something to watch.

Obviously. Take 30% off those numbers at least. Probably 40% -50% off, inland. Anyway, the exact output with those graphics wasn’t the point. It never is at 72+ hrs..

Yea it wasn’t weaker. Looked just as wound up, but further west. Down to 970’s south of CT. The euro continues to show a microcane type feature as well. The the 3hr gust output is obviously hugely overdone (as usual), but linking it to highlight this mesoscale feature....

Seems the more intense guidance is reflecting a more tropical connection to the development of the coastal—NAM/Euro—vs the GFS and Ukie. All major guidance continues to trend west, and further from a classic Miller B.. Overall appears like a blend between the two evolutions, A/B at the moment...

Yea and much of that has to do with communication to the public on a case by case basis. In this situation the classification would do little to change the publics’ perceived impacts/precautions.

This should have already been upgraded. I presume they didn’t want to jump from 20% probs to “it’s a storm” in one advisory?

Was hoping at this point to see guidance —in general—begin to show more significant deepening. Guidance continues to have mostly Nor Easter type pressure falls (considering the lack of baroclincity) despite early October climo near the Gulf Stream and merging with tropical disturbance to its southwest. I suspect the sub tropical nature of this system will lead to some significant surprises until/unless guidance begins to catch onto this reality. Regardless, the main takeaway is there is no mechanism to drive the system overhead. If this is going to be a significant event it will be via significant pressure falls, enhancing the gradient, NOT a closer pass to the coast.

H5 October 31st 1991 vs today’s 12z euro.

Just some quick observations: I know I’ll catch a lot of weenie tags for this, but the 12z euro looks like an analog of the 1991 perfect storm, in terms of the major players (NOT impact). Many similarities, including the Halloween blizzard that buried the upper Midwest at the same time. There’s obviously some key differences as well —nothing (yet) has this system deepening anywhere close to the 970’s. The absorption of hurricane Grace helped to make that storm quite unique...*If* anything remarkable can happen with this it will have be through some combination of absorption of tropical disturbances west of Bermuda and deepening as a sub tropical cyclone in and around the Gulf Stream. The GFS is still largely a non-event so confidence in anything impactful is still low... https://www.weather.gov/dlh/1991halloweenblizzard

Full moon on the 13th. Event appears to climax on or before 10/12...Worth noting in the event the track trends slower/further west over time...

Just a quick look but little surprised by SPC’s limited interest in severe for Wednesday. Antecedent airmass looks great. As does timing for eastern third of the forum. Decent UL height falls...Limiting factor appears to be shear, but that parameter should be conducive in CNE/ NNE, for at least widespread pulse, maybe an MCS in SE NH/ Maine?

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch.

Was out at York beach today and was shocked how warm the water is...just checked buoys throughout the Gulf of Maine...lots of upper 60’s and low 70’s already....For early July? Wow...