jbenedet

I know you’re being facetious here but I think many are confused...And this point is important enough to elaborate on...Forecasting is an art and an independent skill that can be developed. Some are much better at it than others. Dare I say there are many “professional meteorologists” out there who are terrible forecasters. A major contributor to this is atmospheric sci programs and the NWS are not filtering candidates based on forecasting skills/ability, but I digress.... Models are built based on scientific theory, but the inherent uncertainties within the models —chaos and complexity—require the art of forecasting to produce accurate —or at least better than consensus— forecasts.

I’m not even talking wet or white at this point. Looks like a big storm nearby, that’s all. Full moon on the 12th so that makes it more interesting to watch for the coast as well.

The bulk of us should move onto next Tuesday.

FWIW as a general rule of thumb for the warmer 2/3 of the subforum, I’ve noticed that when the deepest cold dumps into the Upper Midwest while the storm is on its closest approach to us—as it does in this case—its typically not a situation that bodes well for snow. Hedge in favor of a warmer/wetter outcome.

Jeeze I said that about an hr ago and already being taken out of context? Never said rain for everyone, especially not you. This euro run only strengthened my case, further reflecting the trend west/north. How many more runs before euro 850 mb track is over Pittsfield MA? 8?

Trend

Bc they only belong in a circus?

You can do that. Fine. I think about what a given outcome will look like (independent of models), and see if that starts to show up in the guidance. That’s what this 12z GFS run was for me.

Thank me later. Saving weenies some time is all.

I’m not pointing out the GFS as having superior skill. I specified this run is much closer to what will verify imo.

I’m going to call an EPS FAIL on this one. 12z GFS much closer to what this is shaping up to be. Looks like a yawner for 99% of us. Thinking you’ll want to be in northern greens,, the whites and northern Maine to see snow from this one. Everyone else, enjoy the rain and Fropa.

Which surface low? Heh. The synoptically driven one that develops near the Delaware bay? Sure. But even the 6z GFS is developing a meso low/weak TC that traverses the Carolina coast. Maybe it doesn’t happen, but that’s the other area to watch for surface pressure falls, especially judging by the convection collocated there right now.

Think the specific area to watch is the blob of convection south of Wilmington NC. Difficult to tell by radar but appears there may already be a very weak LLC embedded within that.

Wrt last night’s 0z runs, hedge bets in favor of a correction slightly west as guidance tends to underestimate downstream UL ridge amplification due to LHR. The deep tropical nature of this system means the correction inside 12-24 hr could be larger than usual...

It seems that this shouldn’t remain a mystery for long. The mesolow—if it develops—is currently developing off the Carolina coast. That much is consistent across the guidance which has it. We watch.

Just being facetious. Seems like splitting hairs in this case, bc where it may not verify in the front end has a decent probability of verifying on the back end.

Heh south coast of RI, is RI. I’d go south shore MA over CT.

Whatever the case is, the mini cane that heads into Coastal RI, has been remarkably consistent across guidance since early yesterday...

I dunno, maybe I’m oversimplifying this, but to me the whole problem gets reduced to this: either we see nascent signs of a tropical disturbance develop off the SE coast today, or we don’t. If it’s the latter, the less amped 0z/6z euro-esque solution is the most likely outcome.

Yea I can see it in the warm sector where its collocated with deep convection and then post occlusion in the south eastern quadrant, assuming it tracks near/over ORH as the ageostrphic flow at the surface remains off the 55-65F ocean while the mid/low level circulation begins wrapping in a continental polar airmass. The more maritime tropical air this can flood into the region the more substantial and prolonged the “part II” of the winds will be...RI and south shore MA look like the best places to be....

will be very interesting to see if the deep convection off the GA coast develops a weak SLP today.

12z Ukie looks a lot like the Euro now.

I do think this evolution would make a whole lot more sense, physically, if there was a tropical disturbance off the southeast coast prior to the approach of the UL trough across the Midwest. There is a weak surface trough that stalls just off the SE coast tomorrow. Some guidance shows shower activity and clouds collocated in that region. I’ll be focusing on that area tomorrow to see if there’s any sign of tropical development...

The UL setup really isn’t that terribly anomalous for us—good for a significant Nor’easter no doubt—but 960’s??? The only way the nuke materializes is with a robust tropical connection. Either the euro and nam are wayyyy OTL on what happens near Savannah GA, or we’re going to see a small cane running up the coast.