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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    >20mb drop in surface pressure modeled over next 12 hrs. Should be a fun one to watch for eastern zones right down to the end...
  2. jbenedet
  3. jbenedet
    6-8” in parts of SE NH will verify. Widespread? Probably not. But def on a localized basis. Hampton up to Portsmouth seems a strong bet for at least 6” Seeing first mod obs in the area now. Definitely picked up in past hr.
  4. jbenedet
    I see snowing in Boston until 0z/1z on guidance. A foot seems like a low bar to clear given the latest obs, banding and ratios...
  5. jbenedet
    That band from Boston down to New Haven is awesome. Just training, and intensifying over time. Boston and south west suburbs are going to come out of this with highest totals I think...and easily over a foot.
  6. jbenedet
    Some general obs/rule of thumbs that argue against a weak system and for a bigger event. Today is a beaut by mid winter standards...(seriously get outside). Great weather days often immediately precede strong storms... Sound of snow melt, at 9:00 am doesn’t exactly fit with the progressive/suppressed SE solutions...
  7. jbenedet
    It’s getting closer to significant winter storm despite the recent surface trends. Boston to SE MA should def hedge snowfall forecasts significantly higher. We’re seeing a -NAO develop with UL heights building into New Brunswick, and QC from the central Atlantic. This is having the effect of slowing the disturbance and increasing chances of an earlier northern stream phase.
  8. jbenedet
    “Progressive progressive progressive “ I mean, even if you want to leverage the hell out of that point, the PNA ridge axis is off the west coast...This disturbance has A LOT of longitude to pump UL heights...
  9. jbenedet
    That was 987 mb at the BM on the 12z ukie. Nice.
  10. jbenedet
    Feb 7 2003. Good low end benchmark. I’d reference this for a “conservative forecast” right now.
  11. jbenedet
    My mistake.
  12. jbenedet
    The upside potential remains very high.
  13. jbenedet
    And that’s with very limited northern stream involvement.
  14. jbenedet
    I mean it’s both. No? Instead of the track ENE/NE trajectory more like an open wave we see it bend/tug back a bit, more akin to a maturing system. That’s my thought process.
  15. jbenedet
    Increased phasing, and more rapid synoptic wave development... that’s my guess anyway.
  16. jbenedet
    The northern stream is trending towards increased phasing... What happens if 6z GFS hr 42 looks more like this?
  17. jbenedet
    All op guidance is on the progressive/fast side of the envelope. The teleconnections and a short wave traversing the Northern GOM argues for the amped/slow side .... Risk remains strongly in favor of major guidance trending further in this direction...
  18. jbenedet
    Wrong. Sir. She gon slowwwww down.
  19. jbenedet
    The big one on Sunday/Monday cheers
  20. jbenedet
    I’d watch that the mesos are following convection more than synoptic height field... The globals make more sense to me in terms of the mid level and surface track... crazier things have happened but I’ve learned through experience to expect a last minute correction southeast when a robust Canadian high is in place... To be sure, some guidance never catches on (corrects)...
  21. jbenedet
    Uhm. Yea. That’s a slam dunk I’d say at this point.... You are in a fantastic spot for this storm. Enjoy.
  22. jbenedet
    That 29/2, 28/3 in new haven CT, Bridgeport CT respectively is wow. That’s a wall...
  23. jbenedet
    Surface temps looks really cold in NYC throughout. Peak out in upper 20’s it looks like. If there’s ptype issues it’s the mid levels and sleet or freezing rain.
  24. jbenedet
    One helluva CAD signal into LI seeing those bent isobars like that...
  25. jbenedet
    Why you would use the NAM for this analysis over the EPS/ GFS, is beyond me...
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