jbenedet

You might be right, but I’ll say since living in coastal NH, the surface CAD is really robust, but at the same time 850 -900 warmth commonly makes its way up to where warm fronts go to die —“Lake Winne Region”. I think this is one of those setups where the surface front ends up over SE MA—*much* further southeast— than at 850.

You would think, but we lose any surface high at that point, and the coastal low isn’t sufficiently deep to generate low level CAD until it’s into Maine. It seems more likely to me that 800-900 warmth is being captured well on guidance for part II, but the surface CAD is significantly underdone. Most likely outcome is areas that are below freezing at the surface through part 1 remain so through part II. Surface temps stagnate while 800-900 warm slightly. Points south, around BDL, are mostly light freezing rain/drizzle, while points north, around PSM, are mostly sleet. Areas, in between (around ORH) are a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Seems more like a “we rot” situation, despite the coastal low development.

26/7 already at KDAW. This looks good for SNE weenies. Go long the 12z ARW WRF

Dare I say the 18z NAM is onto something —only with regard to intensity though. Thinking “strung out” will be lost as the go to vernacular describing this as we get closer in. The surface low likely —as it typically does in these situations—ends up somewhere over SE MA...

PAC doesn’t look bad with PNA neutral. I the PAC being slightly unfavorable is easily offset by greatly improving climo as we head into latter half of December with a -NAO (assuming it holds).

Really difficult not to like where we’re sitting with MJO likely to region/phase 1 and a -NAO/ - -AO in heading into late December. A merry Christmas indeed. I think Monday night delivers mostly white for bulk of us, northwest of I84/I90. Low end warning snowfall looks good for broad area of sub forum. My first guess...

I’m on record here saying I never really like a -EPO, for sig snow storms. As you indicated above, much of this hinges on whether we see a -NAO build around the time the shortwave is over the central conus. Not much clarity there, given the divergence of model outcomes beginning around the 10th—only time can cure this...

Both solutions are too amped to be SWFE. I know what you’re saying about a SWFE, but to me the latest guidance is saying this is either a cutter or a Miller A. I lean towards the latter but with very little confidence. Also climo still not favorable for a sig snowfall from a SWFE outside of NNE...

I like the day 10 potential. Guidance vacillating as usual, but big storm threat continues to show up across guidance. Seems the GFS and euro traded depictions but being that the majors have shown it at one time or another in the past day of runs has piqued my interest. I think this is the only one to watch for those wanting meaningful snow. But being out ~10 days, that’s about all you can say right now. Watch with interest...

I’m with you. I don’t like the trends. I think it’s an all or nothing deal. Thinking you’ll want to be furthest South and East. Boston on the margin. Northeast trajectory from 50-100 miles east of BM = Eastern Long Island, RI, to SE MA, and especially cape and islands is where I think it’s a big hit; in terms of qpf. The changes have been subtle from run to run but the mid level track continues to trend south...

I guess I mean in terms of how it stacks up. Much falls as frozen...little stacks up...much wasted. Seems like a 1-3” deal. And then a break, and part 2 is when it all comes together...and south and west looks best for the second half.

CT looks like the sweet spot. Especially NW of I84. still plenty of time, but that’s the way latest guidance appears to be trending IMO...

Yea I agree with this. Could be very meh for part 1. Little accums. All the goods Monday pm and on... Still thinking the best accums will be west and south —NNJ southern upstate NY NE PA. For our sub forum still thinking this is south of pike special. Highest amounts, south and west.

12z GFS looks like the southern margin of possibilities with this. Thinking it has over-corrected here but could take several runs for that become clear. Regardless, the players are extreme in terms of persistence/climo. We do have a record low mslp hitting the west coast today... so we should shift our expectations accordingly...climo much less instructive than usual...

Personally I think it’s harder to stand your ground when every subsequent solution shows something different. We will see how many more runs of major guidance today? And the final outcome will still be ~5 days away... What’s noise vs what’s meaningful is toughest in weather forecasting imo. Updating a forecast too often can be worse than not enough. Imo the trap is the former when key information is coming over 6 hr intervals—minimal confidence gained per run, BUT its new information...

Yes. Similar. But that was with peak winter climo—northern jet stream further south— and that’s why i said a “compromise is in order”. So I think the bulk of it ends up further north—Northern Jersey, LI, cape and islands area...

Everything should be considered at this point, but as I’ve said before, I think about what the evolution should look like independent of models, and then latch onto the guidance that begins to show it first. Basically to put it another way, I run my own model in my head—and right now the 6z GEFS looks much closer to what I’m thinking on this...maybe I’m wrong and the GFS is wrong, but one run of the EPS isn’t going to shake me one direction or the other right now, just need to see how things evolve over next several days.

If not for late November/very early December climo I think we’d all already be saying “congrats philly, ACY or maybe even DC” for the December 1st potential. A Cut-off running into a monster Greenland block screams suppression to me. I’m thinking a climo compromise is in order, so at this point I wouldn’t at all be surprised if NNE is cold and dry and the bulk of the event is in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Just my first low confidence guess... In short, I think the trend on the GFS is real—it will persist—and should be taken seriously...

Cold Rain. Thinking Sunday ends up quite suppressed; -NAO setting in and no phase with the northern stream. Flow is progressive. Looks like almost exclusively an eastern SNE event. Miserable weather for the Pats in Foxburo. Next!

12z GEM is likely the high end of solutions for Monday/Tuesday in terms of how wrapped up this can get... I am favoring something sub 990 at our latitude given guidance consensus showing this being moisture rich off the SE coast in mid November. Expecting moisture fluxes to play a more important role in deepening this than our garden variety Nor Easter...

Must be another Pope around here...

Buy day 3/4 storm sell everything else.

Agree on this, and it’s also why I strongly favor the first (day 3/4) wave. This wave appears to have tropical characteristics while off the SE coast. This is key. The quasi-tropical nature of this disturbance early on, means minimal long wave interference to UL ridge amplification induced by the second wave, allowing the coastal disturbance to track up the coast and phase near the BM as it becomes extra-tropical

Hmm can you elaborate on this? Or any good references on it? My personal reference range for this is roughly the period from a month after the autumnal equinox to a month before the vernal equinox. (Approx late October to late February)

Monday Tuesday potential looks like crap. Meh all around. Maybe it’s just a recency bias but these big -EPO patterns (especially when coupled with +NAO) tend to disappoint us far more often than not—big storm enthusiasts and snow lovers alike. We see a big long wave trough overhead and tappable arctic but the big picture with these serves as a trap that reels in interest and rarely delivers favorably. I suspect the primary reason is we often lack strong perturbations in the flow with these patterns. Why? Who knows for sure but I suspect having short wave propagation out of western Canada vs the Colorado Rockies is one strong reason behind it. Western Canada is typically the breeding ground for Alberta clippers whereas our big Miller A’s and B’s have origins much further south and begin maturing in the development cycle long before reaching our region, unlike the former...Maybe I won’t be disappointed if, going forward, I look at these patterns more correctly as Alberta clipper patterns....That has meh written all over it...