jbenedet

Record highs Saturday and Sunday? Looks like near 30F departures for a chunk of the sub forum.

Yea. I think this is one of those cases where the tuck really underperforms vs climo. We warm up to near 60 before the wedge makes its strongest push Sunday am. If we had cold at onset of developing wedge, I’d be a much bigger believer on being on the wrong side of the gradient for the duration. I’m thinking the 32F isotherm ends up from Portland to Lake Winne, and has staying power there. Maybe we hit 40ish Sunday morning but warm back up to mid 50’s as surface hp booted East and before fropa.

Jeeze, trending toward crushing ice storm in Chicago and Detroit...

Sell the big wedge on the GFS. GFS did something similar last “tuck event” (Jan 4/5), while mesos never bought in. Similar story to last big ice event that struggled hugely to get 32F isotherm south of ORH. And this setup is a lot warmer still...Fade climo with ++AO, much less southward movement of cold; eastward trajectory predominates.

Selling that up to Lake Winne. Going against climo here but that -PNA with shortwave near the Gulf of Mexico is going to do some serious mid level ridge pumping over our heads...

Heh, I can see that—Maybe western CT, western MA?

With ++ AO/ +NAO, I’d sell that idea south of Bangor ME. Maybe you can hedge down to Portland, but I certainly wouldn’t include much else. The cold has much more of an eastward than southward trajectory with these conditions.

There is no tuck with this...weak frontal wave, no Quebec surface HP. The surface CF will be arriving from the northwest... It’s a bonafied torch setup.

Okay didn’t realize that. But in the case of SNE, still looks quite unfavorable through the 20th —keep the shades closed but start peeking....Thinking trend is from crap pacific towards zonal flow pattern (first).

I’ll def take the other side of this over next 10 days, especially for SNE. Close the shades.

This looks just like the GEFS suite...Not sure what he’s talking about here, especially wrt the monster -PNA... I’d feel pretty good about this if we could manage even a very modest -NAO. For now this still looks bad for most...

Seeing this less as a redeveloper and more of a continuous SLP that slides east from upstate NY to PSM, deepening gradually along the way...don’t see how this avoids gaining too much latitude for most of SNE. The WAR looks very problematic.

Haven’t seen it...But Anthony Hopkins has 50 years on me....

Very poor teleconnection in Jan can work for us, bc “poor” also means less “north/south” phasing of jets, and a chunk of the sub forum ends up on the cold side of the southern Jet, due largely to climo and a progressive flow. The in-situ cold in NNE and southern QC is sufficient for future snow, while the snowcover in the region aids in reinforcing climo. This is a setup for CNE and NNE to do quite well, especially the resorts while SNE really struggles. I suspect I’ll be on/very near the margin. Thinking the next 10-14 days looks a lot like this graphic in terms of heaviest snows/ and frozen/rain gradients.

28/24 with NE wind at 10 mph at DAW says it all for those locations. Incoming.

Snowing in Epping NH, after brief period of freezing rain/drizzle.

28/24 in DAW with NE wind at 10mph

Have had everything in Dover. Snow, to some sleet and now freezing rain/drizzle. And that’s happened as the surface temps has dropped...

Yea that’s my thinking as well; at least in terms of the physical processes—latent heat of fusion. I think dewpoints just above the surface would matter a lot here. Unless they are well below freezing I’d lean Freezing Rain. I’m also seeing guidance trend towards greater warming aloft, while the surface cold remains more or less constant. Trend is towards more freezing rain, less sleet...

Just east of the northern Apps the low level easterly component will not occur in a situation of cold air damming, the mesoscale pressure field will trump the synoptic flow. Some may need to open up the textbooks, for reference, but what’s being modeled as easterly wind in parts of SNE will, in reality, be a NNE wind.

Like this in general. Fits my thinking. Only major difference is would have much more East/West gradient with the “big ice threat” area, down to HFD.

Strongly agree with this. Where I disagree is the antecedent airmass is average at best, and late December climo near the coast is not nearly as favorable as late February for this, with warmer SST’s. It doesn’t take much of a low level easterly wind to send BL temps into the mid 30’s.

Without really digging into this, the ageostrophic flow has a significant easterly component which should act to warm the boundary layer well above freezing, in those areas IMO. The coastal low gets going too late to prevent that, as I see it. Zooming out, I think the surface front has that classic “kink” look following the northern Apps, where we get significant cold air damming down to BDL but mid to upper 30’s points East, up to BOS. That’s my thoughts for now anyway. Regardless I agree, sig ice is the big threat, with highest confidence from BDL to ORH.

My initial thoughts vs guidance is go long ice and sell rain/snow from BDL up to SNH. sleet favored from ORH to DAW. Freezing rain favored from ORH to BDL. SNH to ORH gets thumped on the front end with a few inches of snow...