jbenedet

Synoptic wave development. Disturbance cuts off quickly = Minimal downstream UL ridging. Most ironic thing to me is the fact that SNE folks are the ones complainin’ most about this potential, meanwhile NNE is where the greatest “non-event“ risk lies... With time this is looking more like an SNE and Northern mid Atlantic snowstorm to me, but everyone in those areas focused on marginal temps that won’t matter if the Synoptics pan out.

18z GEFS for next weekend looks great. Juiced run. Miller A.

Yea but at/near peak climo means antecedent airmass matters much less if we get a deep coastal low. Late January means deep cold to tap is close by...I think too much focus on temp at onset, and missing bigger picture. This also has characteristics of a Miller A with subsequent phase. The sub tropical jet appears to be involved early on in this setup...May seem like a minor detail but reason I’m brining this up, is bc I think this evolution has a much better chance of being dynamic enough to quickly overcome any antecedent airmass issues...

I dunno. I think it’s emotions that are getting the best of people right now. I take this look on this guidance at day 7 any day of winter, unless of course you’re not wanting a snowstorm. Don’t the best snowstorms almost always come with the rain/snow line not far from the coast? Anyway I think it’s one of those cases, if it comes to fruition. Moisture rich and no ptype concerns are two sides of the same coin. Can’t have it both ways...

I think the day 8 system comes back as at least SECS. And first one of the season to watch that has a appreciable shot at becoming a MECS...SNE also in the game on this ...My first *low* confidence guess...

Elevation FTW? Temp never increased much, but mid 30’s with high dews did their work to eat most of the 1-3” that had accumulated. Had the look/feeling that if this event had started during the day we would have had significantly less...just seemed odd for mid January, especially with mid to Upper 40’s for highs yesterday...

This really had the look and feel of a late March/early April light snowfall. Surface temps marginal, and bulk of accums on warmer surfaces occurred before the sun came up...Shortly after sunrise, hit 34ish and white rain/rain snow mix...2pm and greater than half of what had fallen is gone.

Perhaps a case of correlation is not causation; but the 18th is starting to look a lot more like a storm overlaid with the MJO phase 6 in mid January. It was what I cautioned with anyway... Just sayin’ Still time to change. But feeling more confident that this not a winter storm for the bulk of us—me included.

MJO in phase 6 def gives me pause/concern that Saturday doesn’t end up colder/snowier than current guidance. Admittedly though, I haven’t been following the MJO until very recently...So how strong this signal is vs the other players and climo is something I’m still piecing together... To me the only takeaway is the MJO is potentially calling BS on significant East Coast confluence/troughing ahead of this shortwave...I.E. current model guidance for a weak +NAO/-NAO setting up around that timeframe may be faux or transient. NAO end up more positive? Hopefully someone here who follows MJO more closely can offer a better opinion on this...

Coastal NNE. CNE is interior MA; that’s my take anyway

18th has to be watched very closely. I feel like CNE and NNE in great spots for this. The big question is the rest of us...

I think Wed is going to end up quite warm for most. Probably another beautiful day —50 in PSM? I can see that ... Thursday, well AN before the CF as well—40’s...Thursday looks like a NNE resorts, and away from the coast in ME type deal for snow lovers.

Fun times, yes, in Lewiston ME. I can buy that.

I’d be pretty surprised if that happens at this point, but kinda moot anyway, bc as you said we have the close proximity of the front to our west right now. May make a difference in sensible weather for only an hr or two, at worst.

Good thing I’m not at DAW. My climo more like an avg of DAW and PSM. It’s beautiful imby

Fold.

Seems like teleconnections are broadly shifting from terrible to mediocre. Have to strongly favor in and up until we get closer to the 20th and reassess...

More like a back window. Areas north of it are still above normal... Not going to make it much further south than that either...

64/49 at PSM and that was as of 11:55 am. Nuts.

PSM going into the low 60’s today it seems...60 will be easy...

12z NAM says no back door, keep the screen door for the chickens.

Jeans and t-shirt weather. Vis Satellite shows sun breaking out for most over the next hour; most will be up into the 50’s when that occurs. short term guidance continues to warm. PSM making a run for 60 today.

44/38. big melt well underway.

That would smash records. PSM on south has very little to no snow cover already. That area is primed to maximize that window. Timing wrt fropa is good as well.