jbenedet

I mentioned yesterday that most interesting system for eastern SNE is around the 20th. Cape scrape appeal. Yea should watch that down there. All I’m saying is the pattern is shifting to hostile starting around 22nd and last to at least end of year.

Tomorrow 50’s all the way to presque isle.

Pattern begins changing for the worse around the first day of winter. Looks like ski country will be fighting to keep what they have to end the year.

The 21st is the well-timed shortwave in terms of supportive cold in an overall AN pattern but the system is way south and suppressed on current GEFS and EPS guidance. IMO outside of interior NNE it’s the only one to watch with some mild interest. Cape scrape opportunity with this one…SE areas of the subforum favored here…

19 for the low.

Numbers aren’t gonna get closer than that down to the day. Interestingly too, following last year’s pattern, next few weeks are tilted to warm/wet in the northeast. It is following very closely.

Okay guy. You got me, alright.

Significant El Niño conditions this time last year; low end Nina conditions this year…But…. Snow cover in the northeast US and southeast Canada is basically same as this day last year. Percentage wise and area coverage. Strikingly similar.

Also, I don't know if that's the right take on this. I think the better read is that -NAO was still in the background state but not felt in sensible weather until much further north. My belief is the cold influence of -NAO's has also weakened (at our latitude) with time due to the warmer SST's in eastern Canada and the Gulf of Maine. The mid level confluence response that we are so used to seeing in our region in a -NAO regime is now displaced further north/east, generally...

Yes but what about the seasonal pattern to this? I think it has to do with the climatalogical peak and min of SST's In the North Atlantic. For example - Iceland's temperature isn't as negatively affected by the shutting off of the AMOC in late spring and summer (atmospheric temp > water temp), but it is severely reduced in winter (water temp >> atmospheric temp)... Hence the cold pool phenomomen peaks in early winter...and the peaking of the cold pool coincides with a flip to +NAO tendency. This is the critical aspect to my hypothesis...

NAO Index is following very similar behavior to last year. I would like to better understand why we see -NAO tendency dominate fall, flip to +NAO tendency around the beginning of winter (end of December/mid January), and predominate through mid March... As we know from an ENSO state, this year vs last is apples to oranges and yet, the NAO index is following very closely... Something bigger may be going on here... I know on the climate change side there has been a semi-permanent "cold pool" observed to be centered in the region of iceland, which is theorized to be driven by the slowing down of the gulf stream component of the AMOC. Perhaps the development and peaking of this "cold pool" coincides with the the near solar minimum, which in turn drives the NAO Index to positive tendency. The cold pool is relatively less by mid March as SST's in the North Atlantic achieve minimum, and ISR is more influencial to +temp anoms in this part of the world...

https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBHB.html Bar Harbor— 38 sustained gust 67, last night.

61/59

Bar Harbor ME 59/57 Really gives idea on how warm the North Atlantic still is. Gonna be great spot for wind gusts too… maybe the region max…

DAW has been cooked for a few hours now. Not a good sign for the people trying to hold their pack. DAW is usually a rock for the CAD.

Well combination rainfall+snowmelt Southern VT, in particular. I stupidly didn't look much into interior Maine. That actually looks the worst based on latest guidance. NH looks relatively spared as precip max is collocated with the areas of minimal snowpack/unfrozen ground.

Beats the heck out of 34 and downpours. Save on the heat, take out the dog for a walk in between showers.

Will be dry slot for many of us east of the CT river Looks like VT going to be worst area for flooding. That has been a recurring theme...might as well keep it going.

Something dystopian about this thread title. Perhaps, instead, I'll just read it as sarcasm... Over this period, I have received 2" of snow but also 2" of rain; pack is about to get wiped-out area wide up to the "north of the wall" lakes region latitude, and the beginning of December ends in less than 4 days.

Warmer. 37/34 currently and still raining. If I do change it’ll be another white rain event here. NAM was the only piece of guidance that was close it seems. Took until 18z for it to key into it too. Everything else way too cold/frozen.

On the sea coast, this was a huge bust for the euro/GFS temp wise. Wow. Not sure what the euro was smokin’…. Front must be right over my head; seeing DAW as light snow….

Heavy rain 41. northeast winds don’t cut it lately. Not even close.

Natural disaster, fresh water flooding, look for most of the far interior on the GFS. It’s really been a theme in recent years through most seasons; not gonna bet against it.

About 2” in Dover before the melt began. Nice little event. Scenery looks beautiful painted in white. I actually shoveled a bit in the shady spots given the solar min and black ice risk that comes with it. Early spring snow vibes now given the overnight snow and the sound of melting that started around sunrise.

MJO 5/6 in December points to a split flow regime where there are significant negative temp anomalies in the western CONUS. This implies “troughiness” out west; but you don’t see this translate to significant warmth in the east. So ridges in the east tend to be dampened to the point that non-arctic based Canadian cold can slip in to the northern US periodically and the southeast gets maritime pacific which isn’t warm for their December climate… And thats what I’m seeing in the modeling consensus. No real mystery to the upcoming pattern in terms of the MJO forecast. Now why are we in a potent phase 5/6 in a December La Niña is the more important question…