jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Not an airmass issue the one time —all season— it fits *your* narrative. Airmass issues are the theme of the season, but you will disregard that now...Tell me how *little* snow SNE received from this event, and then we’ll pretend like SNH snowfall amounts weren’t at all adversely impacted by what happened down there. ORH hit 35 F on 2/13 also btw, as did ASH and PSM.
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No it wasn’t just a matter of qpf. “Cold enough”. For what? At the end of the day it’s also about ratios and how it accumulates. What fell overnight wasn’t high ratio fluff and what fell 6am on didn’t stack up in SNH.
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No. Last one I called for 2-3”, half of GYX’s map issued 2/11, which turned out to be spot on done here. I think we get a trace on Tuesday.
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Agree on dews. But I’m leaning slightly warmer vs guidance the next several days. I also think Tuesday, aside from perhaps a negligible frozen start, will be a rain event here.
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Heh. 1-3” mostly. But quite a bit of ice in that...
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Today looks really nice; 40 looks attainable in SNH. Probably going to lose the pack here by Wednesday.
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Mostly sleet here now. Some snow grains
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Looks more like an early spring type snowfall. I’ll leave it at that. Especially given that it happened overnight and temps already pushing above freezing.
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Beautiful out. Even up here was a complete paste job. I’ll def take it, no issue on roads but a nice scenery. Don’t think there’s more than 3” here, eyeballing it.
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NAM is selling BS and some are buying.
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That actually illustrates my point quite well. 31-35 for most of SNE and Eastern half of rockingham and Stratford counties in NH. Northfield will do well, I agree with that. I’m expecting a tick warmer today on guidance.
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Oh it will accum, I just think the qpf and snow maps are overstating impacts broadly. In SNE and sea coast NH, I would go less than 10:1 overnight and thinking melting will largely offset what falls during the day. I don’t think the slight warming trend is over either... You’re in a great spot though.
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I don’t think warm BL temps are getting enough attention in terms of impact. Low ratios/minimal accums on non-grassy surfaces, I think will be main story for bulk of SNE. I think it will even be an appreciable factor in SE NH.
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I’m with you. There’s a subtle warming trend on the GFS. I think the mesos are full of shit. Easy to get duped into believing they’re seeing some CAD the globals aren’t, but there is *NO* CAD with this setup. I think temps will be warm throughout for us. Tomorrow we hit 40 and BL temps struggle to fall overnight as low level WAD continues and overcast rolls in Wednesday evening, and then 850’s warm all day Thursday. Poor ratios —> white rain—>sleet mix to mid 30’s drizzle.
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Persistence forecast. Looks great for the NNE resorts.
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There is at least a disclosure; his tag is “snowcrazed”.
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I was just flat out wrong about this; overlooked the ++EPO, and how the pacific is trending worse over time. Won’t do that again. Remarkable how that alone is trumping everything else, AND climo. Can’t fight a terrible pacific; not even in peak climo in New England. Noted.
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12z is still worse—warmer/further north, GFS likewise...
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I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...
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Should have added that I think the shortwave will trend back towards more digging....
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Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...
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Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north
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We only have 20 more runs of the GFS before this storm is on our doorstep, but let’s analyze details...
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More like day 5...Onset is early Saturday p.m. for most. Slow mover through day 6.
