jbenedet

If the sun comes out... there’s like a 1-2 hr window.

Thinking there will be a lot of mehhing with this until a low topped squall line develops over northern mid Atlantic and swings through, which will be accompanied by about an hour of “holy crap” type winds, around 2-4 p.m. Just my back of the envelope type forecast for you guys in CT and SE MA...

Shallow inversion popped and already into the 40’s here. Going to be a great day. Thinking I have a shot at 65.

Take the over on Sunday. Looks like a gem. Going long 60’s for the bulk of us.

- - NAO, MJO phase 8, and a significant disturbance all on April fricken 10th. We struggled to have 1 of those three at any given time throughout the winter season, but with mid April here, the weather gods will give us all 3 simultaneously.

I think there’s more than hope for us on Wed. 50’s and sun is well within reach with the significant block over New Brunswick. Another “best weather in Maine” type day... The price to pay for it will be Thurs. night into early Friday...

Threading needle again today. Partly cloudy. Temp just jumped into mid 50’s...

52 at DAW as of 11:50 am. Already a big win given what guidance showed. 55 for a high possible. We take... Do even better tomorrow. Looking like a run at 60...

Yea mostly sunny here already. Better north today. But drier air working in. A meso surface high also working in from the west ...may take til 11am - 12pm for you, but sun on its way...

Today looks much better than guidance. N wind, but dry air really working in now and skies already partly cloudy...mid to upper levels aren’t nearly as cold as you’d think given the Synoptics, so most of us who get the early April sun can easily push well into the 50’s...

Still thinking early next week is a northern mid Atlantic, extreme southern New England event. I actually favor Long Island on south for best dynamics. Blocking is quite significant around that timeframe. Better than 50% chance it ends up a mostly sunny day up here...

Maybe. Up here, I could be 50’s and sunny with surface high over head... First look is —NAO appears significant (not marginal) so snow chances may be more in the areas that are most challenged with climo right now—northern mid Atlantic and Southern portions of SNE.

Big -NAO incoming. Just in time for spring... Hopefully confluence is significant enough to send the doors down to ACY/Maryland —can make for pretty nice weather up here, if this pattern wants to lock in, in early April.

Haven’t been following the disco in the Coronavirus thread, but yea, there’s clearly an observable pattern between early spring time temps and most efficient spread of the virus. Research has also pointed to the same thing—two separate studies. One indicating 47F “peak” for spread, another 0-15C. Long story short, this is the only time you’ll see me cheering for late March/April snow. Then bring on a torch please...

I can confirm. I road tripped down to Florida thurs/fri, and didn’t see leaf out and widespread green grasses until in central/southern parts of South Carolina. Understood this to be —in large part—a result of Jan-March CONUS pattern, with dominant pacific that results in negative T anomalies in the southeast but significant positive anomalies in the northern mid Atlantic and especially Northeast.

Ah never was on the inside of that joke...

Interesting. Can you elaborate on that with the context of this winter ? Or @OSUmetstud?

This winter has been most remarkable in its lack of cold air. Numerous significant “cold” fronts immediately followed by AN temps. This morning I was shocked to see the car therm read 28F at 6a.m. in late February after ~12 hrs of gusty northwesterly winds.

Looks like a persistence forecast. Especially for our region...

I think this is an all snow event for you. Wedge looks very legit; first significant one in a while. Triple point wedge, with the surface reflection tracking south/east of PSM. I think down to ORH out to the Berks needs to watch this closely as well. I’m now expecting a mess imby. Mostly frozen. Hope I’m wrong though. Ready for spring unless it’s a MECS...

Thought about this as well. Obviously now at a point that little can be discounted, but what steers me away from this is the progressive tenor of season as well as the teleconnections AND global guidance, which all point to this thing chugging along—not racing, but certainly not your bowling ball-esque type evolution. Yes we have robust amplitudes, but she will be moving...

With the day 6 event, I’d def be hedging west and intense right now. The shortwave traversing the Pacific Northwest around hr 60 continues to look deep on guidance early on...The PNA ridge looks very amped in this setup as well. In terms of snow I think we want to be looking for triple point opportunities or an early cut-off bc the synoptic track appears unfavorable, barring significant changes. Interior NNE can have significant snow in almost any given situation this time of the year, so mostly wet or mostly white is still very much up in the air in those parts and will be for some time...

Looked at those numbers and thought to myself, “that sounds a lot like winter in the Carolinas...” Funny thing is, by this time tomorrow ~1/4 of NC will have received about as much snowfall as you through 2/21.

BS. And BS. We can agree to disagree. I don’t care. Pretty incredible the airmass had no bearing on snow accums. What was that the first time this season?

4-6” was always a bad bet bc you needed everything to go perfectly for that to verify—temps, lift and qpf. I pointed mostly to the former 2 as to why I was anticipating much less. I don’t care what you guys want to say—implying that less than mod rates with surface temps 32/33 has no impact on accums just doesn’t add up at the stake. A degree or two matters significantly in this case. That’s my point and I’ll stick with it, bc it works. Also I flipped to sleet around 7 a.m. I lost ~0.1” LE to mix and rain, and what fell before sunrise couldn’t offset what would be lost after 6am, bc the ratios sucked. Period. End of story.